Greyhound Analysis: Sandown Park, Friday 18th November 2016

Race 6 Bold Trease Final – 715m

Track Record: Miata 41.17 (14/5/2012)

Past Winners

2015 – Bourbski Fever

2014 – Sweet It Is

2013 – Cheetah Zorro

2012 – Miata

2011 – Zipping Malfoy

Race Analysis

Very open race with the pre-post “top seeds” all failing to make it through to the final. No greyhound could be ruled out of winning this race.

RAMIFICATIONS really caught my eye in his first Victorian start in his heat. He ran great time on the clock and he looks fairly certain to find a forward position. He may even lead and if he can avoid early pressure he has the class factor on this field. AVATAR JET hit the line really well in his first start over this distance range in his heat, he has plenty of upside and he should start very big odds on the exchange. JAIMANDY HATTY has had plenty of experience over this distance range, has a good record from this draw and was most unlucky in his heat where he found a stack of bother. He is right in this. SPRINGVALE BRYNE is a superb front running South Australian chaser who also looks well drawn out wide, she may be able to pinch an early break if there is any shuffle up behind her and would take beating. IT’S A FLING did have plenty of favours in her heat, however the time on the clock showed her class. I am banking on her finding some early trouble here and leaving her run too late this time around. IT’S A BIRD benefited from the inside draw in her heat and has come up trumps here again with the red, she should click through her gears nicely but I am willing to bet around her. KUTA’S LAD would need plenty of early luck from this squeeze draw but does have a big staying future and could place here. CACO POTION led all the way in his heat and scored a gutsy win. He is the fairy tale story of the race as this is the first dog newcomer Stefano Cassar has trained, to have a runner in this Group 1 Final is an extraordinary effort and there is no way I could say that he can’t win here.

Field & Stats

1. It’s A Bird Best 42.04 (11/8/16). Won her heat in 42.48 with a first split of 6.11. Had this draw in heat. Five times in the money from seven starts this draw. Three wins from five starts this trip.

2. Caco Potion Best 42.19. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 6.13. One win from two starts here. Two wins and two thirds from seven starts this draw. Newcomer Stefano Cassar’s first Group finalist.

3. Ramifications Best 42.09. Ran best time in heat win with a first split of 6.07. Heat win was first start with Jeff Britton kennel and in Victoria. Only one placing from five stars this draw. In the money in his past 11 starts in Western Australia.

4. Avatar Jet No best winning time. Ran 42.21 in heat with a first split of 6.07. Has equal least career wins in field with five. One win from this draw in three starts. Four of five career wins from Boxes 4-7.

5. Kuta’s Lad No best time. Runner up in heat running 42.56 with a first split of 6.35. Never finished worse than second from this draw in two starts. Youngest chaser in field.

6. Jaimandy Hatty Best 42.26 (6/10/16). Runner up in heat running 42.29 with a first split of 6.52. Has a great record from this draw with eight placings from 10 starts. Most experienced chaser over this trip (Nine starts).

7. Springvale Bryne Best 41.93 (2/6/16). Second in heat in 42.07 with a first split of 6.04 (quickest). Most prolific winner in field (24 wins). Has scored an amazing 15 wins over 731m at Angle Park.

8. It’s A Fling Best 41.89. Ran this time in heat (quickest). First split of 6.30. Unbeaten from this draw. Equal least career wins (five). All five wins have come from Boxes 5-8. Least experienced chaser in field.

9. Come on Fantasy (1st emergency) Best 41.87 (14/7/16). Ran third in heat in time of 42.07 with a first split of 6.15. Will be most experienced chaser in field if she gains a start.

10. Senator Monelli (2nd emergency) Best 42.17 (27/10/16). Third in heat running time of 42.30 with a first split of 6.27. Been in the money in 36 of 39 career starts. Can perform from any Box draw.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Ramifications for 3 units at > $3.80

 BACK (EACH WAY) Avatar Jet for 2 units at > $22.00/$4.00

 LAY (WIN) It’s a Fling for 2 units at <$5.50


Race 8 Melbourne Cup Final – 515m

Track Record: Unlawful Entry 28.95 (17/3/2016)

Past Winners

2015 – Dyna Double One

2014 – Dyna Villa

2013 – Black Magic Opal

2012 – Got A Moment

2011 – Dyna Tron

Race Analysis

Fascinating race. This could either be really simple or really complicated. Zambora Brockie could either go straight to the front and win, or there could trouble on the first corner and the race is wide open from there. I will be looking for value.

JESAULENKO has been in career best form of late. He has running strongly in recent runs. I loved the way he held off Blazin Bomber in his heat who is one of the strongest dogs in the country and was on his tail throughout. I believe there is every chance of a shuffle up on the first turn and I am hoping he can sail around any trouble underneath him.

OUTSIDE PASS also may be able to avoid any early trouble as she tends to stay wide early, she has a sense of timing about her and she is a strong runner who is capable of a powerful finish. Of some note is that she has travelled back to Queensland in between this heat and final. If ZAMBORA BROCKIE was able to lead clearly at the first turn it may be a case of times and margins, however there is so much early pace here that something may have to give and I am not willing to take $2-$2.50 about him. I am not game to lay him though.

WORM BURNER surprised many by leading all the way in his heat, but he has a poor record from this draw and I believe he may meet plenty of bother on the first turn and I am keen to take him on. BARTON BALE sizzled early and has huge upside, he ran the fastest first section but the slowest run home time. There is every chance he could spear off on the first turn and cause chaos. He would need to lead clearly to be a chance of winning.

TRIPUM is the blow out chance here, he has done nothing wrong in his two Victorian starts and has huge upside. The squeeze draw is his main issue. ANDO’S MAC was very impressive in his heat where he was posted wide and still won, he is in the category of I couldn’t lay him in case he exploded out of the boxes and he has not lost from the draw. I am just willing to bet around him. MATT MACHINE looks to be making up the numbers here and would need an inside draw to be any chase of winning but he is a dog to keep an eye on over the coming months.

Field & Stats

1. Barton Bale Best 29.45 (16/10/16). Won his heat in 29.72 with a first split of 5.00 (quickest). Only missed a placing once from 11 starts. Least experienced chaser in field. Prolific owner Paul Wheeler’s only runner in field (has won past two Cups)

2. Worm Burner Best 29.30 Ran this time in heat leading all the way with a first split of 5.10. Most prolific winner in field (34 wins).  Group 1 2016 National Sprint Champion. Worst performed box with only one career win from five starts.

3. Zambora Brockie Best 29.06. Ran this time in heat win with a first split of 5.07. Only missed a placing once in six starts this draw. Four wins from seven starts this trip. Group 2 Shootout winner over this trip recently. 10th Group race final.

4. Tripum Best 29.33 (4/11/16).Led all the way in heat in 29.52 with a first split of 5.09. Has a PB 5.01 first split here. Two from two this trip. Two wins from five starts this draw. 2016 Group 2 Lismore Cup winner.

5. Ando’s Mac Best 29.64. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.09. Undefeated from this draw (two starts). Great winning strike rate with 15 wins from 28 starts. Group 1 Vic Peters Classic winner at Wentworth Park.

6. Outside Pass Best 29.13. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.05. Never worse than second in five starts here. Only one win from five starts this draw. Fifth Group final but is yet to win one (three seconds).

7. Matt Machine Best 29.39. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.17. Five of eight career wins have come from Boxes 1-4. Six times in the money from seven starts this trip. Youngest chaser in field.

8. Jesaulenko Best 29.13 (28/1/16). Won heat in 29.31, first split of 5.08. Never missed a placing in seven starts from this draw. Four wins from nine starts this trip (one win and one third this draw/trip). Has only been in one Group final, sixth in Traralgon Cup.

9. Blazin’ Bomber (1st emergency) Best 29.09 (5/5/16). Runner up in heat in time of 29.39. Has a PB first split of 5.13. 12 of 21 career wins from Boxes 1-4.

10. Bruce Tycoon (2nd emergency) Best 29.46 (3/3/16). Has a PB first split of 5.05. Has won from every Box draw. Would be the most experienced chaser in field if he gains a start (79 starts).

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Jesaulenko for 2 units at > $6.50

 BACK (WIN) Outside Pass for 2 units at > $5.50

 LAY (WIN) Worm Burner for 1 unit <$9.50

 


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