Goodwood Tips: 2020 Carnival

Glorious Goodwood is upon us and our UK Racing Expert, Rory Flanagan is back to deliver his best Goodwood Tips across the entire festival of racing.

You can follow Rory on Twitter here.

Goodwood always presents great back and lay opportunities with deep markets. Go where the value this week and head to the Betfair Exchange.

The Goodwood Festival Races are some of the biggest betting opportunities of the year. Back and Lay on Betfair.

Day 5 Overview

After five days of glorious sunshine, the Goodwood festival draws to a close tonight with a seven-race card, the feature being the Lillie Langtry Stakes supported by the Stewards’ Cup.

I expect the course to be watered very lightly to prevent the track from turning firm and resulting in dozens of scratchings. The stalls for the two sprints are on the stand’s side so higher barrier numbers should be advantaged as the only winner in the sprints that hasn’t won on the rail was Battaash and he is simply different class.

Unibet Stewards’ Sprint Handicap

Tough to look past REWAYAAT here. Has now built an excellent record over 1200m, with form figures reading 941511 over the trip. The 7.5L win last time out wasn’t quite enough to get him into the Stewards’ Cup so this is the consolation prize he’ll be gunning for. Drawn 12, he should be in the right part of the track to be most effective late on. Jim Crowley is airborne for Shadwell at the minute.

MAY REMAIN gets useful apprentice Cieren Fallon on board to shave some of the weight off, and the horse has run to crackers at this venue. He’s a model of consistency and should be spot on for this.

TOMMY G has the visitor’s draw in gate 1, and that should all but put a line through his hopes. He loves this race having never finished out of the top three here in the last three years, winning it in 2018. Prompting boosted the form yesterday, but I just don’t see how he can defy the gate. It’ll take the ride of the week to get him up.

BATCHELOR BOY is a very good horse on the synthetic circuit but has been found wanting on turf. He has the ability and handicap to win this, but I think he’ll struggle on this surface.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Rewayaat 2 units

Unibet Summer Handicap

Nothing in this race gets me excited. It’s an extremely ordinary renewal here and one of last year’s revelations KING’S ADVICE simply isn’t the same horse anymore. He won 8 of 9 races at one stage last prep but has struggled to carry the weight handed to him by his meteoric rise this time around. That said, his run two starts back when fighting out the finish with Red Verdon – since a very good G2 winner in France. I’m giving him one final chance at a track he loves to give a good account of himself against LAAFY who has routinely been rolled when sitting between $3-$4 in markets.

I’m a little hesitant to recommend him on such fast ground as well, as there’s a misleading record around his good track form as the track was downgraded from good at least twice after two of his runs on good.

THEMAXWECAN was poor last time but his run over this trip at Ascot behind my Ebor top pick Fujaira Prince was pretty slick. I think a return to the same distance suits here and should relish the going.

CALLING THE WIND will prove popular after his win last time out but shoots up in the ratings making this assignment far tougher. He’s only contested two runs on turf so could be unexposed.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – King’s Advice 1 unit.

Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2)

This is all ENBIHAAR. I’ve taken her at a bigger price earlier in the week and punters have continued to support her into 1.7 odds. She is bigger, stronger, faster and better than these and should record her second win in the race. She was laughing at the field in this race last year, hosing up by 5L from MANUELA DE VEGA carrying 61kg.
Manuela De Vega had 55kg that day, and the weights this year are 60kg Enbihaar and 61kg Manuela De Vega. It would take something absurd for that form to be reversed.

CABALETTA has 13L to find on Manuela De Vega from when they met and will improve up in trip but I can’t see it happening.

SNOW brings Irish formlines into the fold after finishing 6L adrift in the Oaks, and this full sister to Kew Gardens will want this trip but she’s running for 2nd as far as I’m concerned.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Enbihaar to demolish these 7 units.

Unibet Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap)

This is a crazy cavalry charge down the hill with no less than 28 runners engaged. There will be hard luck stories, so I feel it necessary to invest in more than one horse as room comes at a premium.
NAHAAR is screaming to be backed. It was punted from $17 into $5 at Ascot running 3rd, then again into even money when winning last start at Newbury.

There’s already been support for it in this race $7-$5. He could well be a group horse in a handicap and he couldn’t have a more in-form jockey than Tom Marquand. Can’t let the horse go around without my money.

In the event the horse is a tragedy beat and gets no luck, MERAAS will be the likely leader and the one to run down. He makes his own luck and won all three starts in which he has led. Doesn’t like it soft so this firm, dry deck will be right up his alley. Gate 4 is the issue.

ANGEL ALEXANDER is a nonsensical price, and not for the first time in his career. The bookies priced him $51 in the Ayr Gold Cup when drawn the stand’s rail and he won. He’s drawn 27 of 28 here and is the same price. The pattern of the week has favoured all horses on the rail and I’m going to be throwing a few shillings his way, each way as he’s massive overs. Forget he even went to Dubai this year, he hated every minute of it.

WATAN another one that isn’t without a hope.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Nahaar 3 units

BACK (WIN) – Meraas 1.5 units

BACK (WIN) – Angel Alexander 0.5 units

Qatar Handicap

Not sure what has happened to HOMESPIN the last two starts and that is probably why he’s at $26, but his trainer Mark Johnston wins this race every second year or so, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him bounce back.

He won at the track last season, and was coming off a 10-month spell when 15L last first-up. Perhaps just needed the run, so he goes on top at the knockout price.

MR SNOWDON has looked very good in his good track runs this prep. I’m completely forgiving the 11th-placed flop at Royal Ascot when it rained and ruined his chances. His last start 2nd can be upgraded due to being sideswiped out of the gates.

KING RAGNAR has smart Lazuli form but I don’t think is suited here and SOCIETY LION runs as though he’d prefer soft going.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Mister Snowdon for 1.5 units

BACK (WIN) – Homespin for 1 unit

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