FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: GOLDEN SLIPPER

Racing tips and betting strategy for Saturday’s Group 1 Golden Slipper are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategy for the Group 1 Golden Slipper at Rosehill with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments.

Racing tips and full in-depth preview and analysis of each race and betting strategy are online now! Only on the Betfair Hub. 

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GOLDEN SLIPPER

Track: Rosehill | Distance: 1200m | Type: Group 1 2YO SW | Rail Position: +2m | Condition: Heavy 8 | Prizemoney: $5,000,000

Some rain forecast for Thursday, Friday & particularly Saturday morning. Track could be slow or heavy. Rosehill can play inside favoured even on wet days.

The world’s richest 2yo race won by the likes of Capitalist, Vancouver, Pierro, Sepoy, Sebring, Miss Finland, Stratum & Dance Hero.

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Historical Profiling: Barrier Draw

The most prolific winning barrier in Golden Slipper history (65 editions of the race) is Barrier 1 with 9 wins.

  • Barriers 1 to 4 have won 24 times.
  • 5-8 have won 16 times.
  • 9-12 have won 16 times.
  • 13-16 have won 9 times.

Historical Profiling: Position In Running

There is an incredible piece of information when you actually watch the replays of the past 18 Golden Slippers (wet tracks in red).

  • 2004: Dance Hero from gate two led all the way on the rail
  • 2005: Stratum from gate six led all the way on the rail
  • 2006: Miss Finland from gate seven was at the back: well back and hugged the rail
  • 2007: Forensics went from gate one: won that course on the rail
  • 2008: Sebring from gate five settled well back and hugged the rail
  • 2009: Phelan Ready from gate fifteen: dropped right back to last but hugged the rail
  • 2010: Crystal Lily from gate one was good on the rail
  • 2011: Sepoy from gate eight was 3rd on the rail
  • 2012: Pierro from gate one hugged the rail
  • 2013: Overreach from gate one was third on the rail
  • 2014: Mossfun missed the start from gate 11 and hugged the rail the whole way to win
  • 2015: Vancouver sat 3 wide with cover and won
  • 2016: Capitalist sat 3 back on the rails and came out in the straight to win
  • 2017: She Will Reign makes a beeline for the rails after a slow getaway and wins
  • 2018: Estijaab led all the way on the rails
  • 2019: Kiamichi led all the way on the rails, coming out in the straight
  • 2020: Farnan led on the rails, coming out in the straight, placegetters both on the rails
  • 2021: Stay inside sat in the 1×1 and won comfortably. Anamoe was last on the fence and ran 2nd

16 of the past 18 Golden Slipper winners were on the rails before the turn. Quite an unbelievable piece of info for jockeys, jockey managers, trainers & owners to be aware of when forming their race day plans.

For punters the challenge is finding those horses given a lot comes down to luck in running and the intent, intelligence and / or instructions of the jockeys on board.

But you can see a remarkably clear pattern there of recent Slipper winners over the last 18 years, that you want to be on the fence.


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Historical Profiling: Trends from Last 10 Years

  • 8 winners had last start 14 days before the Slipper. 1 was 21 days because the races were pushed back 1 week.

Qualifiers: 2 – 4 – 10 – 13 – 14 – 18

  • 7 winners had never run worse than 2nd in their life. 3 had only run out of the quinella once in their career

Qualifiers: 3 – 8 – 9 – 14 – 18 from 1 – 2 – 6 – 7 – 10 – 11 – 12 – 15 – 16 – 17 – 19 – 20

  • 9 winners had either 3 or 4 starts prior to the Golden Slipper. One had 5 runs prior to the Golden Slipper

Qualifiers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 5 – 7 – 8 – 9 – 10 – 11 – 12 – 13 – 15 – 16 – 17 – 19 – 20


SPEED MAP RACING TIPS

Plenty of speed here with Rise Of The Masses, Best Of Bordeaux, Semillion & Queen Of The Ball all pushing to the front.

Coolangatta, Sweet Ride, Lady Laguna & Seven Veils look to settle forward of midfield.

Man In The Mirror, Daumier, Ojai, Russian Conquest and Millane settle midfield.

Revolutionary Miss, She’s Extreme & Shalatin settle worse than midfield.

Sebonack, Sejaardan, Fireburn & Jacquinot out the back.

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GOLDEN SLIPPER | KEY RUNNERS + RACING TIPS

1. Daumier – Won the C&G Blue Diamond Preview on debut, then a solid 3rd next start in the C&G Prelude when stuck on the fence in inferior going. Blinkers on first time and won the Blue Diamond for us at $23. Done enough to figure here also.

2. Sejardan – Won the Todman Stakes which is a key leadup for this, and trainer has won a slipper before.

3. Best Of Bordeaux – Has won well in both his career starts. Believe trainer made a mistake not running him in the Todman.

4. Shalatin – Has been set for this. Was a solid 3rd in the Todman and drawn well. Strong chance.

5. Jacquinot – Won at Caulfield over 1200m impressively on debut running strong sectionals +4 last 800m, then missed the start and had excuses when 5th in the C&G Prelude. Finished strongly for 3rd in the Blue Diamond only beaten 0.5L. Gets a long way back but has the ability to figure.

7. Rise Of The Masses – Won the Pago Pago last start. Gai/Clark combo who will be hard fit for this. Doesn’t have the class of some, but profiles very nicely.

8. Coolangatta – Won 3 from 3 including the Gimcrack for us first up, and then the Magic Millions. With any other trainer would rule out off a 63 day break, but the maher/Eustance camp seem to defy convention with regularity. Wet a query.

9. Revolutionary Miss – Keeps improving with each run, and won Blue Diamond Prelude coming from the rear +4.3 last 800m. Unlucky 2nd beaten a nose in the Blue Diamond. Was the run of the race. Strong chance.

10. Russian Conquest – Didn’t handle the track last start in the Reisling, but 2nd beaten a nose in the Magic Millions the start prior. Rates well.

11. Queen Of The Ball – Could lead on the fence which is a big advantage. Query on wet.

12. Fireburn – Rates solidly given wins over Revolutionary Miss & She’s Extreme at past two starts. Trainer has won a Slipper.

16. She’s Extreme – Getting better each start and sectionals were good in Magic Night win. Profiles well.

18. Millane – Hard to win this race at second start, but is talented enough to run well here.


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DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS

4 – Shalatin
10 – Russian Conquest
9 – Revolutionary Miss
2 – Sejardan
16 – She’s Extreme


GOLDEN SLIPPER | BETTING STRATEGY

There is enough value in this race to bet around Coolangatta.

BACK (WIN) — Russian Conquest for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Revolutionary Miss for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Sejardan for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — She’s Extreme for 0.5 units

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DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 253.4
Units Returned: 276.3
Profit On Turnover: 9.00%

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