Your Federal Election Betting Odds & Seat Predictions

Our Political Pundits are back to discuss the 2019 Federal Election betting odds, and to share their predictions for key seats across the country.

With so many individual electorates, it presents great opportunities to find value across the country and we’re here to help you find them.

In this extensive preview, you’ll learn about they key issues facing both parties, the major seats in play, where the value lies in the odds and a prediction for the winner. Could the ALP be value at the short odds or can the Coalition cause a big price upset?

The Political Pundits had also previewed the 2019 Federal Election Winner Market.

Go where the value is for Political Odds and head to the Betfair Exchange.


Betfair is a low margin exchange, just like Airbnb. We create markets for punters to take on punters. And we want winners.


Polling
The polling gap has narrowed over the final week of the campaign with most of the major polls crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead. With the margin of error always wrapped up in these polls, it gives Scott Morrison and his government hope of an unlikely return. With no margin to work with though and few ALP-held seats truly up for grabs, it will take an Election Day miracle to save Morrison.

Markets
The ALP sit ahead in just 78 of the seat markets but with two left-leaning cross-benchers sure to be re-elected, there are few questions betting indicators are all-but declaring the ALP.

State of Play
ACT: No polling taken as Labor are set to win all three seats.

New South Wales: Not viewed as important as in previous elections. The Coalition are under significant threat from independents in three seats while they will lose a few around Sydney. Polling suggests an unlikely gain in Lindsay.

Northern Territory: The Coalition are afforded chances in both seats but neither seat has shown any data to suggest they are going any way other than Labor.

Queensland: The Coalition have appeared to do a strong job at sandbagging seats in Central Queensland but an ALP surge in inner-Brisbane is of extreme concern to the Coalition with Prime Ministerial challenger Peter Dutton big odds-against to retain his seat.

South Australia: For the third straight election it is a state that will play no notable role in electing the next government.

Tasmania: Late polling has been extremely unreliable but it looks like Labor will secure Bass and despite a flip in betting in Braddon, Labor would be surprised if this seat didn’t go red.

Victoria: Viewed as the key state in this election and will be a bellwether for how dominant Labor are. The ALP will be picking up seats and if they eat into Melbourne’s Eastern Suburbs then it could be a wipeout. Polling suggests this scenario is possible.

Western Australia: Recent poll numbers have given a late push to the Coalition, even in the ultra-marginal seat of Hasluck in play to be saved.

Conclusion
The post has arrived too soon for Scott Morrison and the Coalition. They have worn down Labor but not quick enough and without a seismic shift the path to victory was just too hard for them. The ALP are set to take government with a small majority.

NSW has been a key state for most elections this century but will take a backseat to both Victoria and Queensland this time around.

Sydney surprisingly has very few seats of interest this time around.

The one seat that really will prove central to determining the election outcome is, as nearly always, Lindsay. The Coalition are of the view that they cannot return to government without winning Lindsay. Polling is strong and it projects as a gain but it is genuinely a toss of the coin.

Banks sits on a margin of just 1.7% but with neither leader visiting and some strong Coalition results at both federal and state levels over the last decade, this looks like it will be retained. Anything above $1.20 is a bet. Reid has a larger margin but sitting in the inner-west, liberal support will dip without Malcolm Turnbull leading the party. There is no bet around the $1.40 for the ALP but it looks a seat that will switch hands.

Hughes in the Shire looks to be over the odds with the Coalition under no threat in that part of Sydney. Anything bigger than $1.05 is a play.

On the Central Coast, Robertson looks set to fall to the ALP on a margin of just 1.1%. It is a bellwether seat that has gone with government since 1983 and there seems little hope for the Coalition here. Not a lot of a spoil about the price but better than $1.40 is a play.

It is in the regions that is causing the most consternation for the Coalition in NSW. Gilmore is the first seat in the firing line at 0.7% and the sitting MP retiring. The ALP are short and are most likely to win but there is no more confusing seat in the country with the Liberal Party running a high-profile former Labor candidate, a popular former state National in the mix and a disillusioned Liberal who lost endorsement running as an independent.

One seat where the Coalition will be positive will be Page. The margin is just 2.2% but Kevin Hogan has built a strong personal following and the ALP have put few resources into it. Anything better than $1.30 is a bet.

Hume is in no danger and anything better than $1.01 is an outstanding play with the $1.12 about free.

On the ALP side anything better than $1.01 is a play for Parramatta with the market hovering around $1.07.

Two Sydney seats that have a heavy independent influence are those of Wentworth and Warringah, two traditional blue ribbon Liberal seats that have housed the last two deposed Liberal Prime Ministers. Wentworth went Independent at the by-election following Malcolm Turnbull’s resignation but is expected to go back. There is no spoil at around the $1.10 mark though. Warringah is a very different story though with Tony Abbott in real strife and an outsider in betting markets. Zali Steggall has made real in-roads and the recent gay marriage vote shows how liberal the area has become at the expense of Abbott’s conservative politics. A recent poll had Steggall winning 56-44. Anything close to $1.50 is a bet. Abbott’s continued presence in the seat shows how worried he is.

Rural independents will feature heavily this election, creating value around the market. The Coalition will not be defeated in Calare making the $1.25 market price ridiculous overs. Anything north of $1.06 is a bet. Independent Rob Oakeshott is in prime position to claim Cowper with the combination of his profile, a retiring incumbent, a low-profile National candidate and an anti-government swing. Anything better than $1.60 is a bet. Farrer also looks like it will be ripped from the Coalition by Albury mayor and independent candidate Kevin Mack. There was considerable support away from the Coalition at the state election. Better than $1.75 is a bet for Mack.

Labor are under no threat in Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford-Smith, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa and Whitlam.

The Coalition will be winning Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Lyne, Mackellar, Mitchell, New England, North Sydney, Parkes and Riverina.

Prediction

ALP 26, Coalition 18, Independents 3

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Coalition to win Banks at better than $1.20

 BACK – Coalition to win Hughes at better than $1.05

 BACK – ALP to win Robertson at better than $1.40

 BACK – Coalition to win Page at better than $1.30

 BACK – Coalition to win Hume at better than $1.01

 BACK – ALP to win Parramatta at better than $1.01

 BACK – Independent Zali Steggall to win Warringah at better than $1.50

 BACK – Coalition to win Calare at better than $1.06

 BACK – Independent Rob Oakeshott to win Cowper at better than $1.60

 BACK – Independent Kevin Mack to win Farrer at better than $1.75

Victoria has played a very minor role in recent elections but with some major swings forecast for the ALP it is set to play a major factor in the 2019 referendum.

Corangamite is the most marginal seat in the country. Incumbent Sarah Henderson must defend a seat that is now notionally Labor. Some questionable polling has the Liberals ahead but they are very little hope of defending this with any national swing of note. The $1.40 on offer looks significant overs.

Chisholm projects as an ALP gain. It was the only Liberal pickup in 2016 and the winner there Julia Banks has ditched the seat. An open contest in a state that usually goes Labor at a higher rate than the national average with some Liberal demons goes back to the ALP. There is no spoil about the $1.15 or thereabouts on offer.

There is optimism in Liberal ranks that they will be able to hold off the ALP in La Trobe despite a margin of just 3.2%. The Coalition are throwing plenty into defending the seat so happy to take the long odds-against. Better than $1.90 is a bet.

Deakin is swinging on a margin of 6%-plus after the redistribution and has only had three periods of Labor rule. It is close to pick ‘em in betting. Plenty of value in betting the Coalition at anything north of $1.70.

It is a similar story in Flinders. It would be a Coalition wipeout if they were to lose this blue ribbon seat. Former Liberal MP Julia Banks is running as an independent and that makes this a little more interesting but more than happy to take anything north of $1.33 on the Liberals in this seat. It is the same in the seat of Menzies, one that has never gone red. Around the $1.35 is on offer when it rates as a genuine $1.08 shot.

Casey is a traditional Liberal seat with high-profile member Tony Smith but could go ALP with the $2.85 offering a small amount of value.

Macnamara has replaced Melbourne Ports and the ALP offer outstanding value at $1.60. The Greens pushed hard last time out but couldn’t get out of third place and their vote is certainly not increasing.

The seat of Indi also bears mention. A traditional Coalition stronghold, it has been in Independent hands the last six years. Cathy McGowan is retiring though and the expectation is the seat will go back to Coalition hands. Very difficult seat to bet though. Mallee is another National stronghold facing a fierce Independent candidate but should hold with the scandal-ridden MP retiring.

The Liberals offer a small amount of value in Aston at better than $1.14, Higgins at better than $1.08 and Monash at better than $1.06.

Seats of no betting interest include Labor holds Ballarat, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Fraser, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen and Scullin.

Labor will also hold the seat of Cooper where due to a forecast decline in Greens support and should easily claim Dunkley following the recent redistribution. Wills is viewed as an outside chance for the Greens based primarily on the Liberal candidate withdrawal but is a likely ALP retain.

The Coalition are under no threat in Gippsland, Goldstein (some value for shorts punters if better than $1.02 around), Kooyong, Nicholls and Wannon.

Melbourne will continue to remain in Green hands.

Prediction

ALP 23, Coalition 14, Greens 1

Betting Strategy

 BACK – ALP to win Corangamite at better than $1.20

 BACK – Coalition to win Chisholm at better than $1.90

 BACK – Coalition to win Deakin at better than $1.70

 BACK – Coalition to win Menzies at better than $1.08

 BACK – ALP to win Casey at better than $2.45

 BACK – ALP to win Macnamara at better than $1.60

 BACK – Coalition to win Aston at better than $1.14

 BACK – Coalition to win Higgins at better than $1.08

 BACK – Coalition to win Monash at better than $1.06

Queensland has become the key state in federal elections and with 12 seats in marginal range, it will again be a critical state.

There are two very different moves happening in Queensland right now with the Coalition posting a strong rearguard action in Central and North Queensland while they are facing some heavy losses in Brisbane and surrounds.

Herbert in North Queensland has been earmarked as the one ALP seat the Coalition have to win to retain power and they should be heavily favoured in a seat that looks sure to skew right. There should be some strong performances though from One Nation and the United Australia Party but it would be a surprise if the Coalition did not claw this seat back. Anything bigger than $1.25 is a bet.

Capricornia is a fascinating seat with a Liberal margin of just 0.6%. It is one of a handful of Central Queensland marginals though that the Coalition is confident of retaining and Labor are seemingly deserting. The ALP have distanced themselves from their candidate.

Happy to take the Coalition at better than $1.50. It is a near-identical tale in the seat of Dawson, where George Christensen is favoured on a margin of 3.4%. Anything better than $1.45 is a play.

Flynn looks to present the best-value of the Central Queensland seats. The Coalition are big odds-against here and should be marginal favourites with the ALP reportedly considering the seat an unlikely gain.

Leichhardt is also a bet for the Coalition. Held by 3.6% and with the strong local support for Warren Entsch, this seat should go the same way as the rest of the northern Queensland regionals of which Labor are not confident in. Anything above $1.40 is a play with the $1.80 on offer sensational betting.

On a margin of 3.4%, Bonner is right in the firing line for an ALP gain. Labor is favoured to claim the seat from uninspiring MP Ross Vasta, who has not moved off the backbench despite 12 years in parliament. The right price for the ALP to take this seat is $1.70 so big monitor betting.

Brisbane LNP seats are a major concern for the Coalition and none more so than that of Dickson where high profile MP Peter Dutton is in serious strife. His profile may save him as Queenslanders love a big name but any notable swing against the Coalition in Queensland as expected and he is gone. Not a betting seat but one to watch.

Forde is considered as good as gone for the Coalition with the sitting MP defeating Peter Beattie in 2013 but facing the same challenger who narrowed the margin last start, it looks like switching hands. Anything north of $1.25 is a play. Petrie looks to be in a very similar predicament with the ALP value at better than $1.25 as the dominoes are set to fall in the Brisbane mortgage belt.

Brisbane at 6.0% is in safe territory for the Coalition. There is as much as $1.35 on offer. With the sophomore surge, there is enough to make this seat safe.

Bowman leads the LNP seats with a margin of 7%. It is expected to remain in Coalition hands and if it doesn’t, they are in for complete electoral annihilation.

The Coalition will have no concerns with Fairfax, Fadden, Fisher, Groom, Hinkler, Maranoa, McPherson and Moncrieff while Ryan, Wide Bay and Wright will all be retained.

The ALP will be retaining Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley and Rankin with anything north of $1.02 free.

Those happy to take the shorts can steam into Bob Katter retaining Kennedy as anything north of $1.02 is overs.

Prediction

Coalition 19, ALP 10, Katter 1

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Coalition to win Herbert at better than $1.25

 BACK – Coalition to win Capricornia at better than $1.50

 BACK – Coalition to win Dawson at better than $1.45

 BACK – Coalition to win Flynn at better than $1.60

 BACK – Coalition to win Leichhardt at better than $1.40

 BACK – ALP to win Forde at better than $1.25

 BACK – ALP to win Petrie at better than $1.25

 BACK – Coalition to win Brisbane at better than $1.25

 BACK – ALP to win Longman at better than $1.02

 BACK – Coalition to win Maranoa at better than $1.02

Western Australia shapes as a key battleground state with Labor viewing it as part of their path to victory while protecting some marginal seats is central to the Coalition’s attempts to save government.

Four seats – all currently held by the Liberal Party – are considered very much in play and all four the market seems to be projecting too big a swing to the ALP in a state that traditionally holds reliably stronger for the Coalition than any other state. Those seats are Pearce, Swan, Stirling and Hasluck.

High-profile Christian Porter, the Attorney General, is only just favoured to hold onto the seat of Pearce and is over the odds to do so. There are no indicators we are looking at a Coalition wipeout and Porter’s strong personal vote should insulate him. Recent polling has the Coalition ahead on the 2PP and the collapse of the Green vote will help.

Despite the same margin in Swan, the ALP are favoured, primarily because the Labor candidate is the daughter of former opposition leader Kim Beazley. She lost at the last WA election though and Steve Irons has been around for 12 years and is not without a following. This is a genuine flip.

The ALP are mispriced favourites to claim the seat of Stirling. The 6.1% Liberal margin is inflated with the retirement of long-serving MP Michael Keenan making it an open contest but it would need to strongly outstrip the forecast swing of around 1.5% in WA for Labor to claim the seat.

The Coalition really should lose Hasluck on a thin margin of 2.1% but Ken Wyatt has survived since 2010 and he does have a strong personal following. Anything better than $3 is worth small action.

Those happy to cherry pick the low hanging fruit can confidently bet the Coalition in Canning.The Coalition are gross overs in Canning at around $1.25 with polling strong enough in WA to have Andrew Hastie at $1.04 to retain.

Labor are projected at 100% to claim the seats of Brand, Burt and Fremantle while they will also be retaining Cowan and Perth.

The Coalition are in no danger of losing Curtain, Durack, Forest, Moore, O’Connor and Tangney and the market is priced accordingly.

Prediction

Coalition 10, ALP 6

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Coalition to win Swan at better than $1.90

 BACK – Coalition to win Pearce at better than $1.55

 BACK – Coalition to win Stirling at better than $1.40

 BACK – Coalition to win Hasluck at better than $1.40

 BACK – Coalition to win Canning at better than $1.04

South Australia has lost a seat at this election with Port Adelaide abolished and Wakefield renamed Spence after the man the seat was named after was found to have abducted a teenage girl. The battle lines in South Australia remain fairly well draw.

The ALP have Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin and Spence all sewn up with all rated $1.01 shots for Labor. Barker is in the same camp for the Coalition having never gone red. Mayo is a safe seat for Centre Alliance incumbent and is priced as same but the daughter of Alexander Downer is running and makes it interesting in the traditional Liberal stronghold.

There is an exceptionally good bet for astute bettors in Grey. The Coalition are around the $1.35 mark. They have not lost the seat since 1990 and the ALP are funnily second favourites here when the main threat is Centre Alliance candidate Andrea Broadfoot, who reduced the margin to 2% last time but will struggle with no Nick Xenophon backing.

It is a similar story in Sturt, which has been in Coalition hands since 1972. Christopher Pyne is retiring but the ALP have thrown up a candidate that doesn’t appear overly strong and the $1.25 is money for old rope.

The only seat really in play is Boothby, where betting is all over the shop but is close to pick ‘em at the moment. It sits on a margin of 2.7% but has never gone Labor. The Coalition are picking up ground in SA in recent polling and should get a sophomore surge so think there is some value with the Liberal candidate here.

Prediction

ALP 5, Coalition 4, Independent 1

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Coalition to win Grey at better than $1.10

 BACK – Coalition to win Sturt at better than $1.06

 BACK – Coalition to win Boothby at better than $1.50

Tasmania has a long history of playing a key role in elections and the 2019 election will prove no different with two of the five seats very much in play. The two seats of interest are the Launceston-based Bass and northern rural seat Braddon.

Bass has become a seat that constantly changed hands but it is predominantly a left-wing service-dominated electorate. Labor have a margin topping 5% so it is surprising they were edged in favouritism in recent weeks. This seems to be based on some polls of questionable quality. There has been no clear explanation for this supposed anti-Labor swing. Anything above $1.60 is value

Braddon also offers plenty of value for the ALP. The Coalition are surprisingly favoured here. It is a marginal electorate held on just 1.7% but the Liberal candidate is of low quality and there is some buzz for the conservative independent candidate. No polling suggests the Liberals will pinch this and the ALP only recently re-won this at a by-election.

There is no betting interest in the remaining three seats with independent Andrew Wilkie to hold the renamed seat of Clark (formerly Denison) while Labor are certain to retain the safe electorate of Franklin and Lyons based on a solid margin and the Liberal Party disendorsing their controversial candidate Jessica Whelan.

Prediction

ALP 4, Independents 1, Coalition 0

Betting Strategy

 BACK – ALP to win Bass at better than $1.60

 BACK – ALP to win Braddon at better than $1.70

The Northern Territory consists of two seats: rural Lingari and Solomon, centred on Darwin. Lingari is an insanely strong price and can be bet anywhere over $1.05 with as much as $1.25 available at writing. Lingari has always maintained its ALP allegiance with popular local MP Warren Snowdon representing the area since 1987 with the exception of 1996-98.

At a margin of 8.2%, there is no  hope Labor drop this seat. Solomon is also an interesting proposition. It has gone to the Coalition on four of six occasions but Labor claimed it on a massive swing last time out and hold it with a margin in excess of 6%. There is an estimated swing to Labor of around 4.5% on latest polling so very happy to take the $1.40-plus on offer for Labor winning Solomon.

Prediction

ALP 2-0

Betting Strategy

 BACK – ALP to win Lingari at better than $1.03

 BACK – ALP to win Solomon at better than $1.15

The ACT has expanded from two seats to three seats this election. Since 1977 Labor has held both seats bar the brief period when Canberra went Liberal after a by-election in 1995 before heading back to the ALP.

With the two traditional seats held on margins of 11.8% and 12.9%, these seats are incredibly safe Labor. The new seat of Bean is held on a notional margin of 8.9% and presents an opportunity for those looking to pinch some low-hanging fruit with anything north of $1.03 value. Canberra is as Labor as it gets in Australia.

Prediction

ALP 3-0

Betting Strategy

 BACK – ALP to win Bean at better than $1.03

There are plenty of strong props for bettors to take leading into the 2019 Federal Election.

 BACK – Total ALP Seats: 76-80 Seats at better than $3.00

Polling has the gap narrowing over the last two weeks and seat forecasts have the ALP claiming 79 with an upside of no more than 83.

 BACK – Most Viewed Election Night Coverage: ABC at better than $1.60

The ABC is nearly always the choice and with the ALP expected to win viewers will be looking for a left-leaning slant.

 BACK – Scott Morrison Tie Colour: Blue at better than $1.25

Liberal leaders wear blue ties on election night, particularly conservatives.

 BACK – Greens Primary House Vote % – Under 9.5 % at better than $1.50

The Greens have topped 9.5% only twice and there has been a strong anti-Green sentiment since the last election.


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