As we near the end of the Australian Federal Election 2022, our Political Analyst takes a look at the final markets and delivers his betting strategy for political punters.
Check out the markets for the Australian Federal Election on the Betfair Exchange.
AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION | 2022
The Federal Election is now a couple of days away and the release of two polls showing the Coalition closing the gap on Labor’s lead has seen the betting market register a big change.
Early this week, Labor were as short as $1.25 with the Coalition touching $4.50, as confidence grew that Labor would win comfortably.
But the release of two polls on Tuesday and Wednesday showing a 4 point narrowing in Labor’s lead sparked a steady flow of support for the Coalition on the Betfair platform to the point where at the time of writing Labor had drifted to $1.56 with the Coalition into $2.78.
Labor are still ahead but the margin has narrowed.
There will be at least two more polls between now and election day – their findings will no doubt be the key driver of betting market trends as will close analysis of whether Labor can actually gain the 7 seats across Australia it need to form a majority government.
Another possibility in the way the Parliament will be formed, which favours Labor winning government, is that the Coalition parties will likely lose a number of its seats to the Independents. In these circumstances, even if Labor fall short of a majority in its own right, many of these Independents are likely to side with Labor to determine who wins.
This is why Labor should remain strong favourites going into the weekend, barring a shock poll result showing a further lift in support for the Coalition.
Note that the markets are getting large volumes and the odds are moving quite quickly as the poll date draws near.
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It must be said – watch the release of polls, even though at the last election they were hopelessly wrong.
The Labor blowout past $1.50 appears to be the simple weight of money which is providing an opportunity for better value on what is still the most likely outcome.
Backing Labor at $1.50+ but with a very close look on the release of the last two polls.
BACK: Labor at $1.50+