Fed Ex Cup Tour Championship: Expert Preview

Course Details

We have arrived! The Fed Ex Cup concludes here at Eastlake GC with the Tour Championship. Eastlake is designed on two narrow strips of land characterized by sandy soil, wetlands and flat sections mixed with undulations. Moderate at 5812 meters, Eastlake hides some of its distance in elevation changes and some of the dog legs will make players think about taking driver or not. The course is always presented in pristine condition, and it sure will make for an exciting week as Xander Schauffele tries to defend his title.

Weather Report

Thursday – 31 degrees, mostly sunny, precipitation 0%, humidity 55%, Wind 13km/h

Friday – 31 degrees, mostly sunny, precipitation 10%, humidity 60%, 11km/h

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Current Form Review

Please note Last 5 event on the PGA Tour.

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par –    Patton Kizzire comes into the Tour Championship in poor form, closely followed by Paul Casey and defending champion Xander Schauffele.

Good Form** – Believe it or not, and despite his withdrawal at the Dell Technologies Championship recently, Billy Horschel has the lowest stroke average in the past 5 events played. Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are the next best and playing very well at present. Then there is then a group of players, which include Justin Rose, who has had three 2^nd’s in his past 5 starts.

History at the event the past 3 years

Note – Because of the small field size & strict exemption criteria, many players do not have a lot of form at the event, so it’s difficult to assess.

Good History at Event – Hard to go past Justin Rose, Justin Thomas and Paul Casey who haven’t missed a top 10 between them in recent years at Eastlake. I do think Paul Casey may struggle this year based on his recent form lately. Tony Finau has only played once in the past 3 years and finished 7^th.

Poor History at Event – Patrick Reed and Kevin Na have struggled at the Tour Championship in the small man field, and the usually consistent Rickie Fowler is yet to fire at Eastlake the past few years.

My Rankings for the 2018 Tour Championship

You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

“The Overs” – This week has thrown up a few surprises! My form has Billy Horschel playing very well, having the lowest stroke average to par the previous 5 events. He is also 148 under par from 84 rounds this year, which is very strong. Tony Finau ranks 2^nd in my rankings, clearly one of the hottest players in the world at present. These two players along with Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Gary Woodland, and Kyle Stanley are big “overs” this week.

 “The Under’s” – I have Rory McIIroy and Tiger Woods as “unders”, they are both playing well enough to contend, however I can not be on them at their current price. Even though their recent form is reasonably strong, neither of them have cracked 100 under par for the year. Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed and Paul Casey have all been out of form. Ill be looking at some tournament match bet opportunities on these players.

Not only can you compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “unders”, but you can also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.

In Play Trading Opportunities

Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. Therefore it can be great for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3.

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find them selves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.