Feature Race Report: Flemington, Saturday July 8 2017

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.com.au

Friday 7th – Max 14c. Early shower or two.

Saturday 8th – Max 14c. Shower or two.

R4 Taj Rossi Series Final Listed 1600m Handicap

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value).

Gear Changes

#1 Royal Symphony – Nasal strip off first time.; #3 Madame Moustache – Blinkers first time.; #4 Mulk – Gelded .; #12 Panda Wantzoff – Cross over noseband first time.

Race Comment

Here we have 2yos generally getting to 1600m for the first time. Historically, the key race a majority of the place getters have come through is the 1400m Flemington lead up from a fortnight earlier and the race is normally run at a decent tempo. We are obviously looking for horses who will appreciate the 1600m or have been unlucky in an earlier run. Unfortunately from a betting perspective we have a deserving very short priced favourite, in Royal Symphony. He finished off better than any runner which finished behind him over 1400m at Flemington 14 days ago and any runner with a different formline, looks unlikely to threaten here.

Confidence Level: Low

Bet Recommendations

 BACK – (WIN) Royal Symphony  

 

R5 A.R. Creswick Series Final 1200m Listed SWP

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value).

Gear Changes

#1 Ken’s Dream – Blinkers first time.; #7 Fast Stryke – Tongue tie first time.

Race Comment

The 1100m Flemington lead up from 14 days ago seems to be the race most likely to yield the winner here. Around 56kgs does seem to be the sweet spot and this would seem to favour Overstep as being capable of repeating the win from last start. However, the step up from 1100m to 1200m and the barrier draw this time around, may tip the scales in favour of Invincible Al. It finished better than Overstep last start and should be able to find the best going (irrigation lane) while keeping an eye on Overstep to the inside. Invincible Al has also had a recent barrier trial, presumably to try and temper some of the keen running style it displayed when restrained last start.

Confidence Level: Medium

Bet Recommendations

 BACK (WIN) Invincible Al

R7 VRC-CRV Winter Championship Final 1600m Listed Handicap

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value).

Gear Changes

#3 Tshahitsi – Ear muffs first time, tongue tie first time.

Race Comment

A wide open market here. There is a strong profile, pointing to the 1400m Flemington race from 14 days ago as a good lead up. Run on types seem to be advantaged and the Moonee Valley lead up form can be weak. Tshahitsi comes out of the right race, but probably has no choice but to go forward from the wide draw and may be vulnerable late over the 1600m. Loyalty Man looks to be at the right stage of its preparation, being third up and progressing from 1400m to 1600m. Was fractious in the barriers last start and settled too close to a reasonably fast pace, gets a chance to slot in midfield here and finish its race off at the right time. Has won over the same course and distance previously.

Confidence Level: Low

Bet Recommendations

 BACK (WIN) Loyalty Man

R8 All Victorian Sprint Final Listed 1200m Handicap

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value).

Gear Changes

#6 Rough Justice – Tongue tie first time.

Race Comment

The two consistent lead up races for this event are the 1100m Flem lead up (perhaps the stronger of the two) and the 1200m Moonee Valley lead up. Lighter weights do seem to be advantaged and this may indicate Ability is well suited here. However, it is too well found in the early market and both it and Husson Eagle meet at the same weights as last start, over the 1100m here 14 days ago. Husson Eagle looks to tag Ability wherever it goes, and has been given a recent barrier trial in preparation for this. We will look for it to be driving through late for victory.

Confidence Level: Medium

Bet Recommendations

 BACK (WIN) Husson Eagle


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