Feature Race Analysis: Winterbottom Stakes

Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Winterbottom Stakes, 1200m GP1 3YO+ WFA $1,000,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the 6m position out from the 3m position at the last meeting. Sunny conditions should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 4. The predicted winds are light which won’t impact. There have been 17 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should assist on pace runners with the inside 4-5 lanes providing the best going in the straight.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed

Simon Miller has indicated that they will lead on Whispering Brook who gets blinkers for the first time and that they will run that mare along at a decent speed as that is how she performs best. The stablemate Caipirinha therefore comes across and sits outside lead with Malibu Style the other main on pace contender trailing with Dream Lifter also handy to the pace.

Race Overview

Early markets have five runner’s single odds chances, the R2W Computer has six which suggests this contest is wider than the current market is suggesting. Given our assessment of the top two horses in early betting is longer than the early market we are looking towards a potential upset to occur and playing the value accordingly. The Colonel Reeves Stakes (held here 18/11) provides the main form lines with six runners backing up in this race.

Runner Analysis

Hn Horse AS Jockey Hcp All Hr r2w$
8 State Solicitor 5G William Pike 58.5 98 $6.21
9 Viddora 5M Joe Bowditch 56.5 104 $6.57
10 Whispering Brook 4M Jason Brown 56.5 88 $8.26
2 Santa Ana Lane 5H Dean Yendall 58.5 106 $9.27
13 Caipirinha 4M Joseph Azzopardi 56.5 87 $9.80
11 Dainty Tess 4M Chris Parnham 56.5 96 $9.94
12 Fuhryk 4M Damien Oliver 56.5 96 $10.7
1 Rock Magic 8G Jarrad Noske 58.5 108 $16.0
7 Profit Street 6G Brad Parnham 58.5 97 $30.4
3 Durendal 6G Shaun Mc Gruddy 58.5 98 $37.6
4 Dream Lifter 8G Mitchell Pateman 58.5 97 $45.2
5 Malibu Style 6G Steven Parnham 58.5 96 $55.6

Advantaged Horses

10. Whispering Brook: Comes into this race off a competitive run in the Colonel Reeves when she was back in distance from 1400m to 1100m. Gets blinkers and tongue tie for the first time and the stable has announced intentions that she will lead at a genuine pace. History shows that these conditions are where she produces her best ratings. At $18 she is a genuine longshot that can race better than the current price suggests.

13. Caipirinha: Stablemate to Whispering Brook, she will most likely sit outside lead. Boxed on well last time beaten only 0.2 L after sitting three wide without cover. With a kinder run in transit, she represents another genuine longshot that at $19 can race better than the current price suggests.

Neutral Horses

8. State Solicitor: Top rated lightly raced gelding who has won nine of his 12 career starts. After being badly held up last start he overcame difficulties to get home narrowly in the Colonel Reeves Stakes. I’m not potting his chances, but he does need a new rating peak to justify his current $3 price tag.

9. Viddora: Arrives here from Victoria and is sure to have admirers. Was unlucky not to win the Moir Stakes two runs back when resuming and last start wasn’t fully tested in the run home. Is a genuine winning chance but on her last start rating she should be longer than the $4.20 in current markets.

2. Santa Ana Lane: Resumes off a 62-day spell after winning the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield. Was suited by the fast/slow pace shape of that race and whilst he can be dangerous late he will be back near the tail of the field.

11. Dainty Tess: Is a very consistent mare who could settle within the first 6 here. Recent ratings suggest she is another genuine longshot that at $17 can race better than the current price suggests.

12. Fuhryk: Comes off a poor run last start having previously rating the best of any runner in this race (recent ratings). If she was able to recapture that form, then she could easily win this without surprising. Respect market moves.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Rock Magic: Performs best when fresh (first to third up) in his preparations. Comes off a fair run up the Flemington straight last start but combining his $6 price tag and his get back run style makes the one to avoid.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Whispering Brook at $8.40+ (0.5% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Caipirinha $9.80+ (0.4% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Dainty Tess $10+ (0.4% of your betting bank)

 BACK (SAVE) Fuhryk at market price (0.15% of your betting bank)


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