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Race 8 Weetwood Handicap 1200m LR QLTY $150,000

Track

Currently rated a Good 4 with the Rail in the true position, in from the 5m position at the last meeting. Mostly fine conditions leading up to Saturday. We see a track no worse than the current Good 4. The predicted winds are only moderate so that is not likely to impact however if there is an effect it could assist horses making ground in the straight so keep on whether there is any pattern developing. There have been 37 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track could advantage on pace runners with the best going possibly a couple off in the straight.

Follow me on Twitter @PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.


Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Fast tempo.


Map Notes

There is a stack of early speed in this race with the favourite Mr Marbellouz facing real pressure from the likes of Sheiswhatsheis and Boomwaa from a wide gate. Amanaat looks to get a nice trailing position and others like Hard Stride and Fabs Cowboy can make their presence felt early.


Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have six runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. At the time of writing, our top-rated selection Mr Marbellouz represents poor value. Our second selection Ruettiger is about the right odds. The race presents an opportunity to oppose our top-rated selection and favourite.


Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
16Mr Marbellouz4GJag Guthmann-Chester5485$5.50
5Ruettiger6GJeff Lloyd5493$6.50
17Publishing Power4GUnknown5484$10
13Amanaat4GBobby El-Issa5487.5$11
1Hopfgarten7GDamian Browne59103$12
8Hi Im Back6GJim Byrne5490$15
15Boomwaa6GUnknown5487$16
3Man Of His Word5GBrad Stewart5595$17
4Raido6GMatthew McGillivray5493$31
18Our Beebee4MUnknown5484$31
11Hard Stride7GEmma Ljung5489.5$34
12With A Promise4MSkye Bogenhuber5489.5$51
9Tisani Tomso7GPaul Hammersley5490$51
6Sheiswhatsheis6MAlannah Fancourt5493$67
2Jumbo Prince6HSean Cormack5799$81
10Zumbelina4MMichael Cahill5490$81
14Lordag7GJames Orman5487$81
19Fabs Cowboy6GUnknown5483$101
7Choice Bro8GNozi Tomizawa5490$101

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

5. Ruettiger: Resumes off a 98-day spell. Has had two starts for the Currie stable the latest saw him wide from the 600m without cover yet he finished off beaten only 1.5L behind Someday. Jeff Lloyd has been booked which tells me the stable is keen on his chances. If there is betting support for him then he can be very dangerous. This is the runner that most interests me from a win betting perspective.

17. Publishing Power: Another Ben Currie trained gelding who has been racing well of late. Last start finished 1.98L behind Mr Marbellouz (the favourite here) and meets him 2kg better at the weights. He is also entered for Race 5 on this card and at the time of writing we don’t have a jockey so there is a possibility that he may not run in this race. In any case I can’t get him as short as the current market.

13. Amanaat: Seems like a Ben Currie flavour here and this gelding has now won six from eight starts for the stable. Looks to get a nice run trailing the speed and has the talent to be competitive again but at $5.50 I can’t make a case for supporting him.

Disadvantaged Horse

16. Mr Marbellouz: Rated on top here and has solid credentials having won six of his seven career starts. This is his hardest test to date and looks to face real pressure here early which concerns me given he has been advantaged in recent starts by the pattern and pace shape of his races. Whilst he is entitled to be favourite it’s impossible to like him at anywhere near the current fixed odds of $2.70.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

 LAY (WIN) Mr Marbellouz on BSP (enter – Your liability =3% of betting bank)


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