Feature Race Analysis: Victoria Derby Day

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Victoria Derby, 2500m GP1 3YO SW $1,500,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m position at the last meeting here. Partly cloudy with the chances of showers Friday and a possible shower on Saturday (total of 1 to 3mm predicted) should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 4. The predicted winds are moderate up to 25 km/h SSW which shouldn’t impact. There have been 20 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play even with backmarkers getting their chance if the pace conditions are suitable. If the wind is to play a part, the best ground could be just away from the fence in the straight (horses with cover). Given this is Race 7 on the program, look out for any signs that the inside has deteriorated.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.


Tempo

For Saturday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.


Map Notes

Starts on the course proper in the home straight. There is only a straight run of about 200 metres to a tight double turn. Blake Shinn will need to decide early on Tangled if he wants an on-pace position. Greycliffe can cross and lead from his middle draw. Ace High will no doubt offer opposition, but may be content to trail. Weather With You can hold a position on the pace from his inside draw. Beachwood is another who can settle on pace. 


Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have seven runners single figure odds, the R2W has four. Early markets have the Spring Champion Stakes winner Ace High favourite at $5.50. This is another very competitive race with all runners attempting the 2500m for the first time which adds intrigue and requires some assumptions as to who will and won’t get the trip. This could be a good map for Tangled to press forward, assuming he jumps well with the winkers first time.


Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
2Tangled3CBlake Shinn55.590$5.40
1Ace High3CTye Angland55.5100$6.37
5Main Stage3GMichael Walker55.575$8.06
7Weather With You3GMark Zahra55.572$10.10
12Greycliffe3CJordan Childs55.567$13.60
3Astoria3CDamian Lane55.577$14.40
11Oceans Fourteen3CLuke Nolen55.567$17.10
6Sully3GHugh Bowman55.577$17.70
10Justice Faith3CCraig Williams55.561$25.70
4Eshtiraak3CKerrin McEvoy55.570$32.30
8Aberro3CBen Melham55.563$36.80
9Pissaro3CNoel Callow55.562$44.30
13Johnny Vinko3GStephen Baster55.563$54.20
15Rockarral3GJohn Allen55.562$72.20
17Beachwood3GUnknown55.556$112.40
16Wolfe Tone3CJye McNeil55.560$123.90
14Nothing Too Hard3GBeau Mertens55.557$134.20

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Tangled: Runner up to Ace High in the Spring Champion Stakes two runs back before appearing to have every chance last time around Caulfield. With the Winkers going on can press forward and obtain an on-pace position. He is out of NZ Oaks winner Bramble Rose which augurs well and can turn the tables on Ace High assuming he gets some luck early.

1. Ace High: Won the Spring Champion Stakes last start defeating his main danger Tangled. My concern is that he hasn’t raced for 28 days which could tell late over the 2500m.

5. Main Stage: Looked impressive winning two starts ago despite the saddle slipping. Had the pace shape to help that day. Found it hard to make ground last start but finished off OK. Gets back from the wide gate which is a problem from a betting perspective.

7. Weather With You: Was solid enough on pace winning the Geelong Classic last start with the Blinkers on first time and aided slightly by the pattern. Has each way claims.

5. Main Stage: Looked impressive winning two starts ago despite the saddle slipping. Had the pace shape to help that day. Found it hard to make ground last start but finished off OK. Gets back from the wide gate which is a problem from a betting perspective.

12. Greycliffe: Very lightly raced colt who won eased down by a big margin last start. A slight query for me was just how advantaged was he by the bias that day. Looks to lead if he wants to and can be in this for a long way.

6. Sully: Ran on behind Ace High in the Spring Champion Stakes last start. My concern is that he hasn’t raced for 28 days which could tell late over the 2500m. At current fixed odds of $8.50 he offers no value.

Disadvantaged Horse

NIL


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Tangled $6.20+ for 0.65% of your betting bank


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