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R5 Turnbull Stakes, 2000m GP1 4YO+ SWP $500,000

Track

Currently rated Good 3, Rail is in the 9m position (normal for this meeting) in from the 14m at the last meeting here. The likely prospect of a few showers leading up to Saturday (total of 1 to 6mm predicted) should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 4. The predicted winds are light which will not impact. There have been 11 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions and historical patterns, the inside 2-3 lanes of the track are likely to be compromised.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.


Tempo 

Interestingly, recent editions of this race have been run at an above average pace for the first 1400m (first section). The average speed for the last 4 years (first section) has been 4.6 lengths above PAR (standard time for track, distance and class adjusted for track speed variables on the day). For Saturday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.


Map Notes

Starts on the side of the track with a long enough run enabling all runners to find their positions before a big double turn. With the prospect of little early speed, Ventura Storm looks the most likely leader with Assign coming across to sit outside lead. The champion Winx gets a lovely trail.


Race Overview

The betting is of course dominated by the champion Winx who is assessed in line with current prices. Humidor is the only other horse given a genuine chance by the market. Under the Set Weight & Penalties conditions of this race Winx is incredibly well treated (with a handicapper rating of 132) carrying WFA.


Advantaged Horses

2. Winx: Champion mare attempting her 21st consecutive Black type win. With a lovely trail just behind the likely leaders, she can display her explosive turn of foot to win at her fourth run back this preparation

Neutral Horses

Nil

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Humidor: Dual GP1 WFA winner who displayed an impressive performance to win a fast run Makybe Diva Stakes last start. He returned a rating that sits only 0.7 length below what Winx achieved in the George Main Stakes. However, the issue that the horse faces in this race, is that his best ratings have been achieved in races run at an above average to fast tempo which he won’t get here. Accordingly, his current fixed odds of $4.60 represent poor value.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

LAY (WIN) Humidor at BSP (0.43% of your betting bank)


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