Feature Race Analysis: Sunshine Coast, Saturday 2nd June 2018

Hel Coughlan Stakes

Sunshine Coast Race 8, 1200m LR F&M SWP $100,000

Track

Currently rated a Heavy 8 with the Rail in the true position, in from the 10m position at last night’s meeting. Mainly sunny conditions leading up to Saturday which should see a track rated in the Soft range most likely 6-7. The predicted winds are light which will not impact. There have been 41 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage horses racing on pace with perhaps the best spot a few off in the straight.

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Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Pomelo looks to lead comfortably. Sheikha has few options but to go forward from the wide gate. Test The World sits right on the pace and maps well. If Paris Rock were to get a start, then she has speed to be on pace. Suspenders can position handy to the pace.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 5 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 2. At the time of writing, our top-rated selection Test The World is value odds. Looks a good opportunity to support our top-rated selection that profiles well and is nicely setup going into this race.

Runner Analysis

HN Horse AS Jockey HCP ALL HR R2W$
7 Test The World 4M Leith Innes 55.5 89 $4.75
5 Just Dreaming 4M Damian Browne 55.5 93 $8
18 Epidemic 3F Larry Cassidy 54 80 $13
13 Crystal Fountain 4M Jim Byrne 55.5 86 $13
21 Sheikha 3F Corey Brown 54 77 $13
2 Secret Trail 5M Ronnie Stewart 56 90 $17
10 Conchta 4M Michael Cahill 55.5 76 $21
9 River Racer 4M Taylor Marshall 55.5 84 $26
16 Miss Iano 4M Bobby El-Issa 55.5 80 $31
15 Inspired Estelle 4M Jeff Lloyd 55.5 81 $31
23 Italia Bella 3F Unknown 54 73 $31
19 Colosimo 3F Paul Hammersley 54 72.5 $34
22 Paris Rock 3F Unknown 54 75 $34
11 In Times Of War 4M Michael Walker 55.5 78 $34
8 Pomelo 5M Unknown 55.5 85 $41
12 Our Beebee 4M Unknown 55.5 83 $51
6 Kimberly Star 5M James Orman 55.5 83 $61
14 Of The Day 4M Tiffani Brooker 55.5 81 $67
3 Notonyourlife 6M Mark Du Plessis 56 90 $81
17 Suspenders 4M Ryan Wiggins 55.5 76 $101

Advantaged Horses

Test The World Should be ready to peak with three competitive runs under her belt. Gets Blinkers for the first time and the drop back in distance from 1350 to 1200 looks ideal. Maps well up on the speed and at $7.50 in early fixed odds markets looks a nice gamble.

Neutral Horses

Just Dreaming Hasn’t raced for 49 days and the Blinkers go back on which should help however 1200 could be a bit sharp for her.
Sheikha Will need luck from the wide gate but is a longshot who could easily run better than her current price suggests if she gets some luck early.

Disadvantaged Horses

Crystal Fountain and Epidemic Both these runners are currently well under their assessed prices at fixed odds of $6.50. Both look to get back and despite their current good form look to face inferior runs to what they have enjoyed recently. I’m looking elsewhere.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) – Test The World at $5.00+ (1% of your betting bank)


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