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Race 7 Melbourne Cup, 3200m GP1 HCP $6,000,000

Track

Currently rated Good 3, Rail remains in the true position from Derby Day. Partly cloudy with the chances of a shower or two (40% chance with a total of 1 mm predicted) should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 3. The predicted winds are moderate up to 25 km/h S which shouldn’t impact. There have been 21 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play even with backmarkers getting their chance if the pace conditions are suitable. If the wind is to play a part, the best ground could be just away from the fence in the straight (horses with cover). Given this is Race 7 on the program, look out for any signs that the inside has deteriorated.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.


Tempo 

For Tuesday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.


Map Notes

Cismontane will most likely attempt to cross and lead with Single Gaze and Boom Time the most likely candidates to provide opposition early. Others such as Amelies Star, Thomas Hobson, Gallante and Marmelo are all capable of settling on pace. It’s not out of the question that we see one of more of the imports drawn wide also attempt to press forward early. Expect the race to be run at an average or better tempo.


Race Overview

The betting for the 2017 running of the Melbourne Cup is very open with Marmelo holding favouritism at the time of writing (Monday). There are 11 runners priced under $20 indicating just how open the race is. Race history does not augur well for imported horses having their first run in the 3200m event and with that in mind I have constructed my set of probabilities skewed towards that trend continuing. Based on exposed form, value hunters for win and/or each way betting will struggle to find anything compelling due to the evenness of the handicap and the entrants comparable overall ability.


Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
7Johannes Vermeer5HBen Melham54.5110$8.05
5Marmelo5HHugh Bowman55109$9.71
2Almandin8GFrankie Dettori56.5112$10.10
3Humidor5GBlake Shinn56114$11.00
13Big Duke6GBrenton Avdulla53.5107$13.70
9Max Dynamite8GZac Purton54107$14.60
20Wall Of Fire5HCraig Williams53105$16.10
22Rekindling4HCorey Brown51.5110$23.70
21Thomas Hobson8GJoao Moreira52103$27.50
6Red Cardinal6GKerrin McEvoy55109$29.70
15Boom Time6HCory Parish53105$30.90
4Tiberian6HOlivier Peslier55.5110$36.50
1Hartnell7GDamian Lane57.5114$37.50
23Amelies Star6MDean Yendall51103$38.40
17Libran7GDwayne Dunn53107$42.90
19Single Gaze5MKathy O’Hara53109$43.60
18Nakeeta7GGlyn Schofield53105$46.90
24Cismontane5GBeau Mertens5099$52.30
12Wicklow Brave9GStephen Baster54107$57.60
10Ventura Storm5HGlen Boss54107$59.50
14Us Army Ranger5HJamie Spencer53.5104$85.30
16Gallante7GMichael Dee5399$92.60
8Bondi Beach6GMichael Walker54106$94.10

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

7. Johannes Vermeer: Was terrific in the Caulfield Stakes (his first run in Oz) before finishing third in the Caulfield Cup when a well-tried favourite. With 54.5kg and a turn of foot he looks the best profiled runner.

5. Marmelo: Lightly raced and has the potential to improve off an obviously flashing light run in the Caulfield Cup. His third sectional rating (taken from the 800m) was better than anything else at the meeting. Deserved top chance but no value on current markets.

2. Almandin: Chasing back to back Cup wins. Goes into this with the second highest overall recent rating and despite regressing last start can be dangerous and win this again.

3. Humidor: The most difficult to assess locally trained runner. Ran a terrific new peak rating when second to Winx in the Cox Plate last start. Performs best when the speed is on in his races which is a real possibility here. The big query is whether he will get the 3200m strongly. On the small amount of evidence, we have there is no big red flag to suggest he can’t. Can win this if he gets the trip.

13. Big Duke: Probably the biggest priced horse in this field with winning credentials. Can be somewhat forgiven last start when rating below his previous St Ledger Stakes win at Randwick over 2600m. It’s worth noting he won the Sydney Cup over the 3200m running on in fast overall time. Best longshot for my money.

9. Max Dynamite: His 2015 second in this race was full of merit and a return of that type of rating would put him right in this with a winning chance. Since that race he has started only four times running figures well below what he is capable of which is a concern. I have assessed him three lengths below his 2015 race rating.

20. Wall Of Fire: Has had the benefit of an Australian start when he ran on well for second in the Herbert Power Stakes. If he makes improvement from that run, then he is a rough chance to win this.

Disadvantaged Horse

NIL


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Johannes Vermeer $8.20+ (0.5% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Big Duke $14+ (0.3% of your betting bank)

 BACK (SAVE) Almandin $10+ (0.2% of your betting bank)


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