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R7 Manikato Stakes, 1200m GP1 WFA $1,000,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the True position in from 7m at the last meeting here. Mainly dry conditions with only a 30% chance of a shower during the night should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 4. The predicted winds are moderate blowing in a northerly direction which should not impact too much. There have been 30 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track could advantage horses racing handy to the pace with the lanes even in the straight.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.


Tempo

For Friday night’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Moderate to Average tempo.


Map Notes

Starts in a chute at the back of the course and provides a straight run of approximately 300 metres to the first of two turns. If the wind is to be a factor, it will be a headwind until the first turn having at worst a minor impact on the two fancied on pace runners. Vega Magic crosses to lead from In Her Time most likely sitting outside the favourite. Malaguerra gets a nice trail behind those runners with Hey Doc also likely to find an on-pace position.


Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has two. The betting is headed by Vega Magic who is racing in career best form. The other main chance, In Her Time is coming off consecutive wins and looks the main danger to the favourite. On the third line of the betting is Chautauqua who faces issues. There is an opportunity to support our clear top-rated horse at what appears likely to be fair odds.


Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
2Vega Magic5GCraig Williams58.5115$2.23
9In Her Time5MCorey Brown56.5110$6.56
8English5MMark Zahra56.5111$13.60
1Chautauqua7GDwayne Dunn58.5116$16.20
10Viddora5MJoe Bowditch56.5107$17.30
5Rock Magic8GJarrad Noske58.5107$17.90
6Voodoo Lad6GHugh Bowman58.5108$22.10
3Malaguerra6GDamien Oliver58.5112$31.40
11Super Cash5MKatelyn Mallyon56.5107$35.10
7Spieth5HNash Rawiller58.5106$42.90
4Hey Doc4GLuke Currie58.5108$46.60

Advantaged Horses

2. Vega Magic: Should have won The Everest last time after being restrained, wide and running on well in the worst ground. Should be able to cross and control this race and prove very hard to get past.

Neutral Horses

9. In Her Time: Racing in career best form stringing together two equal peak ratings. Looks a nice map to push forward and sit either outside Vega Magic or two pairs back. Slight concern with the Bar Plates back on but she has won in them twice before.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Chautauqua: Ran on well albeit in the better ground in The Everest last start after settling around 10 lengths off the lead. From the gate looks to settle well back again and will have to overcome the likely advantage to on pace runners. Could win however I cannot get him any shorter than the assessed price.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Vega Magic at $2.23+ (2% of your betting bank)


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