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Flemington Race 8, 2500m GP1 3YO F SW $1,000,000

Track

Currently rated Good 3, Rail is in the 3m position out from True (both Derby and Melbourne Cup Days). Mostly sunny ensuring a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 3. The predicted winds are light up to 17 km/h S which won’t impact. There have been 11 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners with the best ground just away from the fence in the straight.

Follow me on Twitter @PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.


Tempo

For Thursday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.


Map Notes

Pinot may try and repeat tactics from the Ethereal Stakes and lead at a genuine clip with Hiyaam and Circuleight providing the most likely opposition early. The map looks a good one for Rimraam to cross from out wide and settle on pace with the favourite Aloisia getting a lovely run within the first 5 or 6 runners and looks perfectly suited with some speed on up front.


Race Overview

The betting for the 2017 running of the VRC Oaks is dominated by the favourite Aloisia who commands a dominant advantage over her opposition under the Set Weight conditions based on the official handicapper ratings. 2nd tier chances Pinot and Luvaluva look to occupy too much market percentage, assuming the favourite runs up to her recent performance ratings which creates a nice edge even at the short odds.


Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Aloisia3FLuke Nolen55.5$1.37
4Pinot3FStephen Baster55.5$12.10
2Luvaluva3FBlake Shinn55.5$15.10
5Rimraam3FKerrin McEvoy55.5$34.80
8Reliable Dame3FCraig Williams55.5$44.50
6Hiyaam3FMichael Dee55.5$47.00
3Bring Me Roses3FLuke Currie55.5$49.40
11Circuleight3FMichael Walker55.5$140.90
10Four Koalas3FHugh Bowman55.5$169.20
9Sweet Mischief3FJamie Kah55.5$175.80
7Lucky Louie3FBen Melham55.5$192.70

Advantaged Horses

1. Aloisia: In terrific form winning both the Thousand Guineas (strong form references) and the Moonee Valley Vase at her most recent two starts. Whilst there is no such thing as a “good thing” or ‘certainty’ in racing I find it impossible to look elsewhere for the winner of this year’s Oaks. I could not mark her any longer than $1.37 (close enough to 4/11 in traditional bookmaker odds) however even at these odds they still lose 27 times in 100 long term.

Neutral Horses

4. Pinot: Led them at a good clip in the Ethereal Stakes to win by 1.8L over three of her rivals here. Can lead again and give a great sight hence she occupies second line on the betting at $6.00 however this is way too short based on her rating credentials.

2. Luvaluva: Stormed into calculations winning the Wakeful Stakes on Saturday after getting well back, saving ground and running on against the sectionals. That win showed some talent hence she now occupies third line on the betting at $7.50 but that is again way too short based on her rating credentials.

Disadvantaged Horse

NIL


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one (1) potential value in the race.

 BACK (WIN) $1.37+ (3.3% of your betting bank)


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