Feature Race Analysis: Ipswich, Saturday June 17 2017

R7 Ipswich Cup 2150m LR HCP $175,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m point at the last meeting. Cloudy but mainly fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating.

The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been 17 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the best ground may well be away from the fence. There is also potential for horses racing handy to the pace to be advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

Interestingly, this race is normally run at a fast pace to the 600m with the average speed (last seven editions) being +14 lengths above PAR (standard time for track, distance and class adjusted for track speed variables on the day). For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: With more than 300m to the first turn the runners should be able to find their preferred positions. Sort After can come across and lead this field with Courts Star racing on pace. Kaiser Franz, Tears Of Joy and Paragon can race handy.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four. At the time of writing Thursday, there is value in our top-two rated selections. Whilst both top (two) picks are value on current fixed odds each must overcome their predicted map positions. Accordingly, we have recommended reducing the stakes.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Benzini7GKelly McCulloch601037.53
2Jumbo Prince5HJeff Lloyd58994.64
3Sort After4MCorey Brown54.5956.33
4Kaiser Franz6GRobbie Fradd549154.2
5Feltre6GMicheal Hellyer548921.9
6Self Sense6GMichael Cahill54896
7Magnatune7GLarry Cassidy5481.523.4
8Pop N Scotch6GRonnie Stewart5476.575.1
9Courts Star5GTegan Harrison547614.9
10Paragon5GJim Byrne5474.521.6
11Tears Of Joy5MJames Orman547484.8
12Meteorologist6GTiffani Brooker5472.5306.8
13Tessastock4MGlen Colless547220.5
14Choysa6GKate Walters546738.5
15Barraaj4GLuke Tarrant5463306.8

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Jumbo Prince: Coming off a last start Eagle Farm failure which from what we saw last week at Doomben is if anything, a plus. Prior to that run has raced well this preparation. Gets Jeff Lloyd for the first time and rates as the top pick here.

6. Self Sense: Settled about eight lengths off a slow early pace last time when warming up late and was strong thorough the line. Gets back again but has a genuine speed on here which will help a lot. Looms as one of the chances at good odds.

3. Rare Occurrence: Had a picnic leading last time at Morphettville but was weakening through the line which is a concern. Leads this field and will get every chance again but current fixed odds seem short to me.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Jumbo Prince at $4.75+ (0.5% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Self Sense at $6.00+ (0.4% of your betting bank)

R8 Eye Liner Stakes 1350m LR HCP $175,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m point at the last meeting. Cloudy but mainly fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been 17 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the best ground may well be away from the fence. There is also potential for horses racing handy to the pace to be advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: With a long run to the double turn that leads into the home straight all runners should be able to find their preferred positions. Decent speed drawn inside to out here with Flamboyer, Uno Best and Top Tone all capable from out wide, Monsieur Gustave mid-wide and Strawberry Boy drawn the fence all typical leader/on pace runners.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have six runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four. At the time of writing Thursday, there is no value in any of our top four rated selections. Accordingly, there is no early recommendation.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Shiraz7GJames Orman5910114.1
2Snippets Land6GDamian Browne5910125.4
3Strawberry Boy8GTegan Harrison58.510073.7
4Federal5GCorey Brown589925.4
5Flamboyer6GLuke Tarrant579723
6The Virginian4GUnknown57979.85
7Cantbuybetter5GJosh Oliver56.5968.9
8Yesterdays Songs6GMichael Cahill56.59616.6
9Casual Choice7GLuke Dittman55.59415.1
10Perfect Dare4GJim Byrne54909.45
11Handfast4GRobbie Fradd5489.531.8
12Acatour3CJeff Lloyd54877.04
13Top Tone5GLarry Cassidy548723.9
14In His Stride4GPaul Hammersley548526.4
15Taillevent4GGlen Colless548043.6
16Monsieur Gustave4GUnknown547833.2
17Sharpe Hussler5GRonnie Stewart547855.3
18Better Land5HUnknown5477.569.8
19Uno Best4GUnknown5474115.6

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

12. Acatour: Resuming off a 63-day spell. Jeff Lloyd has been booked and has had two trials in preparation for this. Normally races well fresh but will get back here.

7. Cantbuybetter: Racing very well, Lloyd is off Josh Oliver on. Another get back runner who will need luck.

10. Perfect Dare: Races best on firmer ground. Went well behind Deploy first up last start but was suited by the pattern.

6. The Virginian: No rider declared yet. Went well first up on the wet but was suited by the pace shape of that event.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bets in the race.

Reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

R9 Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m LR F&M HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m point at the last meeting. Cloudy but mainly fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been 17 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the best ground may well be away from the fence. There is also potential for horses racing handy to the pace to be advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Map Notes: With a long run to the double turn that leads into the home straight all runners should be able to find their preferred positions. Average speed drawn towards the middle with Criquette, Slumber Party and I Am Zelady the most likely early. Maternal faces the prospect of a wide trip from the outside gate whilst Banda Spice, Dee Nine Elle, Kinshachi and Lucky Show Girl all have the speed to be within the first 6-7 runners.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three At the time of writing Thursday, there is value in our top-rated selection.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Kinshachi4MDamian Browne599411.6
2I Am Zelady5MGlen Colless58924.57
3Dee Nine Elle4MJim Byrne558614.2
4Banda Spice4MTiffani Brooker54.5859.3
5Maternal4MJeff Lloyd54.5859.73
6Notonyourlife5MRobbie Fradd548120
7Hermosa Beach6MMichael Cahill548034.8
8Queen Of Wands4MPaul Hammersley548022.3
10Lucky Show Girl4MRonnie Stewart547625.6
11Maraam4MJames Orman547624
13Criquette3FMicheal Hellyer547319.7
14Madame De Ban4MCorey Brown547339.6
15Baroque Girl4MJosh Oliver5472.530.7
16Round Mountain Gal5MAndrew Spinks5470220.3
17Slumber Party3FTegan Harrison547010.8
18Galway Town6MUnknown5455229.4

Advantaged Horses

2. I Am Zelady: Another runner coming off a last start failure at Eagle Farm. Is likely to race close to the pace here which could easily be an advantage by this time of the day. Glen Colless can be patient and time his run to perfection. Clear top pick.

Neutral Horses

4. Banda Spice: Has had two runs back this preparation boxed on quite well last time. Will get its chance and current fixed odds ($10) appear about right.

5. Maternal: Drawn poorly so Jeff Lloyd will need to have a game plan. Racing well but current fixed odds ($7) are a bit skinny.

17. Slumber Party: Has raced well at both runs back this preparation. Will go forward and look the winner at some stage. Current fixed odds ($10) are about right.

1. Kinshachi: Has had three runs back now this preparation but her ratings are below what she achieved winning 3 of her 4 starts last preparation. Current fixed odds ($5.50) are short.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) I Am Zelady at $4.00+ (1% of your betting bank)


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