Feature Race Analysis: Hinkler Handicap, 9 June 2018

Doomben Race 1, 1200m LR QLTY $100,000

Track

Currently rated a Soft 6 with the Rail in the true position, the same as the last meeting. Possible shower on Friday and mostly sunny Saturday which should see a track rated in the Soft range most likely 6-7. The predicted winds are light which will not impact. There have been 12 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track could advantage horses racing on pace with perhaps the best spot a few off in the straight.

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Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo..

Early Speed Map

Tarzan may try and hold the lead as he did first up over the 1000m. Boomwaa could apply pressure early up to 1200m. Missile Coda gets a nice trail. Stella Ombra faces a difficult task from his gate and could easily be wide throughout.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have fiverunners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four. As at Saturday morning, there is little to no value in early markets. This is a competitive race with at least four winning chances. Monitor the Exchange closer to race time to identify any value.

Runner Analysis

Hn Horse AS Jockey Hcp All Hr r2w$
2 Savanna Amour 4M Ben Melham 56.5 103 $4.75
13 Missile Coda 4M Brenton Avdulla 54 83 $5.50
14 Gibraltar Girl 4M Tim Clark 54 82 $7
6 Too Good To Refuse 5G Jim Byrne 54 93 $9
4 Tarzan 5G Luke Tarrant 54.5 95 $13
1 Kuro 6G James McDonald 58 102 $15
11 Sony Legend 7G Larry Cassidy 54 87 $15
9 Stella Ombra 5G Craig Williams 54 90 $21
3 Siegfried 7G Jeff Lloyd 55 96 $21
10 Boomwaa 6G Jamie Kah 54 87.5 $26
12 Colour Charge 7G Tiffani Brooker 54 86 $61

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Savanna Amour: Settled well back from her wide gate first up (8.8L) from the leader and made up ground (8.6 L off them at the 400m) to be beaten 2.46L at the finish. Will settle a lot closer here and considering she ran the second fastest 800-200, 600-200 and 400-200 splits of the day when resuming she looks a strong contender up to 1200m.

13. Missile Coda: Bounced back to winning form last start when advantaged by the pattern and wearing blinkers first time. Maps well here and with a nice riding switch to Brenton Avdulla is sure to have friends. At current odds of $3.60 is hard to like so if you are wanting to back her I would exercise patience.

14. Gibraltar Girl: Resumes off an 84-day spell. Has trialled three times in preparation for this which is out of pattern, her last two trials over 1050m. Has changed stables and raced well fresh last preparation over 1200m on a soft track. Look for betting support.

Disadvantaged Horse

4. Tarzan: Is on the quick backup which is a positive but faces a tougher assignment here second up at 1200m with more early pressure. Is currently trading at well below the assessed price so am happy to avoid him here.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bet in the race.


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