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Race 8 Goldmarket Handicap 1200m Listed Quality $100,000

Track

Currently rated a Soft 7. Rail is in the true position, the same point as the last meeting. Mostly fine conditions leading up to Saturday. We see a track no worse than the current Soft 7 and could easily see an upgrade before then. The predicted winds are only moderate so that will not impact. There have been 48 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners with the best going a few off in the straight.

Follow me on Twitter @PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.


Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average to Fast tempo.


Early Speed Map

The likely leader looks to be either Snitzkraft or Boomwaa with the likes of Hanwritten, Upstart Pride and Il Mio Destino settling handy to the pace.


Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has two. At the time of writing, our top-rated selection Snitzkraft is value odds. Our second selection is the under the current market and our third selection represents some value. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection at or above our assessed price.


Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
4Snitzkraft3CLarry Cassidy54.593$2.63
6Malvern Estate4GJim Byrne5488$9
2Upstart Pride6GSean Cormack5899$12
12Mystic Opal5MTaylor Marshall5484$13
3Man Of His Word5GBrad Stewart5695$16
9Boomwaa6GJeff Lloyd5487$17
7Pelethronius5GLuke Rolls5488$21
14Aqua Vite5GPaul Hammersley5482$26
5Il Mio Destino7MRonnie Stewart5489$26
11Hanwritten7GRobbie Fradd5485$31
13Mogador5GLee Magorrian5483$34
10Craiglea Deken5GQuayde Krogh5485$51
15Raido6GMatthew McGillivray5478$61
1Rudy7GUnknown60104$67
8Sir Statham8GMichael Cahill5488$201

Advantaged Horses

4. Snitzkraft: Resumes off a 63-day spell and can either lead or be right on pace. His ratings profile suggests he will be hard to hold out and combine that with the fact that he is carrying 1.5kg under WFA makes him the one with a nice value edge.

Neutral Horses

6. Malvern Estate: Sat wide and covered extra ground last start and still boxed on well in the run home. Has been racing extremely well winning four of his last five starts and is the logical second pick here.

2. Upstart Pride: Led throughout winning last start in figures that can see another competitive run here. Races on pace and is one at longer odds that could feature.

9. Boomwaa: Has been racing well however I have doubts that he can run a strong 1200m. Could win this but I prefer others.

Disadvantaged Horse

7. Pelethronius: Has been racing competitively in NSW. The issues are that he is back in distance from 1550m to 1200m within 15 days of his last run and from a wide draw it’s hard to see him settling any closer than 5-6 lengths from the lead. At current fixed odds of $8.00 is one to avoid.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Snitzkraft at $2.63+ (1.5% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Upstart Pride at $12+ (0.3% of your betting bank)


©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2018. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.


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