Feature Race Analysis: Gold Coast, Saturday May 6 2017

R4 Gold Coast Bracelet 1800m LR 3YO F SW $125,000

Track

Currently rated Good4, Rail is in the true position the same as the last meeting. Showers 2-10mm predicted today (Thursday) the partly cloudy leading up to Saturday. We are therefore expecting a downgrade in the current track rating. The predicted winds are only light-moderate so that should not impact. There have been 35 meetings with the rail true in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, I am expecting that the inside section of the track be worse and runners handy to the pace advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts from a chute off the home straight with a long enough run to the first turn that leads into the back straight giving all runners enough time to find their early positions. A distinct lack of early speed here with Savvan and Lyra looking the most likely early. The map looks a good option for Candika to push forward from a wide draw. Invincibella and Atomic Kitten can he handy also.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. At the time of writing Thursday there is early value in our top two rated selections. Candika will hopefully push forward here from the wide draw and settle within the first 4-5 runners. This race is likely to be a test of sectional ability versus fast overall time.

Advantaged Horses

1. Candika: Did a good job winning for us last time when well backed. Settled 2.5 lengths off them that day and Damian Browne showed good judgement saving ground towards the inside before coming a few off the fence in the straight showing a nice turn of foot to win easily. Is the one with the best profile here and is currently nice odds.

Neutral Horses

2. Invincibella: Second rated selection here for us. Up from Sydney and jumps up in distance for the Waller stable. Two runs back this preparation have both been on Heavy tracks so could improve on a better surface. Maps towards the fence here which maybe not ideal. Currently at $5.00 is about the right price.

Disadvantaged Horses

3. Dawn Wall: Is the current $3.60 favourite for this but we feel she has the job in front of here from Barrier 14 where she is likely to get back worse than midfield. Is another from the Waller stable and is 42 days off leading into this event. Happy to bet around her at the current odds on offer.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Candika at $3.75+ (1.1% of your betting bank)

R5 Prime Minister’s Cup 1400m LR HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good4, Rail is in the true position the same as the last meeting. Showers 2-10mm predicted today (Thursday) the partly cloudy leading up to Saturday. We are therefore expecting a downgrade in the current track rating. The predicted winds are only light-moderate so that should not impact. There have been 35 meetings with the rail true in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, I am expecting that the inside section of the track be worse and runners handy to the pace advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts in the back straight with a long run to the double turn that leads into the home straight giving all runners plenty of time to find their early positions. An average early speed here with Religify and Lucky Tom looking the leaders early. Siegfried, Casual Choice and Trubia can be handy to the pace.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds, matching the R2W computer. At the time of writing Thursday there is no early value in any of our top three rated selections. Accordingly, at this stage, we are not able to recommend a value bet. We suggest you reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Religify: Up from Sydney and appears here off a 77-day spell. Looks one of two natural leaders here and normally races well fresh. One of the main rated chances.

3. Federal: Second up here and is also up from Sydney. Has a narrow victory over Religify at their only meeting, will be worse than midfield and will need luck in the straight but will be running on.

4. Siegfried: Racing very well this preparation and maps close to the speed. I’m expecting a competitive performance again here.

7. Beatniks: Racing well and hit a new peak for mine last time. I feel that the drop back to 1400m and the blinkers first time could make her the blowout at odds here.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no current potential value bets in the race.

Reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

R6 Silk Stocking 1200m LR F&M HCP $150,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the true position the same as the last meeting. Showers 2-10mm predicted today (Thursday) the partly cloudy leading up to Saturday. We are therefore expecting a downgrade in the current track rating. The predicted winds are only light-moderate so that should not impact. There have been 35 meetings with the rail true in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, I am expecting that the inside section of the track be worse and runners handy to the pace advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts in the back straight with a run of approx. 200m before the double turn that leads into the home straight. Jockeys from wide gates will need to have a plan early. An average to above average early speed here with the likes of Girl Sunday, With A Promise, Nudierudie, Divine Centuri and Bidii Babe looking to go forward and race handy.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, matching the R2W computer. At the time of writing Thursday there is no clear early value in any of our top two rated selections. Accordingly, at this stage, we are not able to recommend a value bet. We suggest you reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

1. Nancy: Up from Sydney off a 49-day break. Settles midfield and will need luck in running, can finish hard.

4. Sold For Song: Gets right back here and will need luck but will be running on.

5. Elegant Composure: Proven fresh and trialled well recently in the fastest time overall of the day. If she is able to get in to a nice position within the first half dozen or so she appeals as the top pick for this event.

9. Invincible Express: Good short course sprinter attempting 1200m for the first time which is the main query for me here.

12. Nudierudie: Up from Sydney, appearing second up up here. Consistent type who races handy to the pace and is a definite winning chance.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no current potential value bets in the race.

Reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.


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