Feature Race Analysis: Eye Liner Stakes

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Ipswich Race 8: Eye Liner Stakes, 1350m LR QLTY $175,000

Track

Currently rated a Soft 6 with the Rail in the true position, in from the 10m position at the last meeting. Sunny conditions which should see a track no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are light which will not impact. There have been 22 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track could advantage horses racing on pace with the best spot a few off in the straight however, last year’s meeting played even giving all runners their chance, pace dependant.

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Tempo

For Sundays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.


Early Speed Map

Genuine tempo early here with Im A Rippa leading from Religify who slides across from a wide gate. Coolring and Most Important will need to quickly decide on whether to restrain or push forward hoping for some luck. Tougherthantherest has enough pace to be in the first four on settling. Moss N Dale isn’t too far away, settles in the first half.


Race Overview

At the time of writing there is no edge in early markets so it’s difficult to make a firm betting recommendation. The current favourite is Tyzone who looks under the odds.


Runners

Hn Horse AS Jockey Hcp All Hr r2w$
4 Moss N Dale 5G Anthony Darmanin 56 102 $5
11 Tyzone 4G Jeff Lloyd 54 93 $7
2 Religify 7G Corey Brown 59 108 $7.50
7 Im A Rippa 4G Jim Byrne 54 97 $8
1 Lucky Hussler 8G Dean Yendall 61 112 $12
6 Bassett 5G Michael Cahill 54 97 $12
3 Most Important 5G Mark Du Plessis 58 106 $13
10 Privlaka 5G Jake Bayliss 54 93 $21
8 Tougherthantherest 4G Larry Cassidy 54 96 $31
12 Coolring 7G James Orman 54 92 $31
5 Charlie Boy 7G Matthew McGillivray 54.5 99 $41
13 Bushy 8G Tegan Harrison 54 86 $61
9 Marenostro 7G Luke Tarrant 54 95 $201


Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

4. Moss N Dale: Comes into this race third up in his preparation which is a positive (won two on heavy ground and placed third on a Good 4 in his last three third up attempts). Enjoyed a nice run in transit last start before reeling off the fourth fastest 400 and 200m sectionals of the day. With the likelihood of another good run here, he deserves to be favourite in a competitive field.

2. Religify: Resumes from a 231-day spell but has had two 1030m trials in preparation for this. Can race well fresh and if on pace runners are suited then he is definitely a winning chance. Has a consistent ratings profile.

7. Im A Rippa: Racing well and generally produces his best form at Doomben. Looks to lead here and on ratings is in this with a chance.

Disadvantaged Horses

3. Most Important: Has been racing well below what we know he is capable of. The wide gate and soft track do nothing to help his chances and at current fixed odds of $6.50 is one you should definitely avoid. If you can lay him at or close to the current price, then that looks to be a value strategy.

1. Lucky Hussler: Has the class at his best to be right in this but his form over the last two preparations has been a bit in and out despite having excuses in some of those runs. Resumes from 154-day spell and will need conditions to suit to justify his current fixed odds quote of $7.00, rather look elsewhere.

11. Tyzone: Current favourite at $4.40 and is rated second selection on my prices. Comes into this race off the back of two wins since resuming so there is no denying that this 8YO is flying since changing stables. What I’m mostly concerned about is him running a strong 1350m. Combine that with his likely get back map position and he offers no value to punters at his current price. If you are wanting to back him then I would be waiting for a better price.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bet in the race. Monitor the Exchange closer to the race for any value.


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