Feature Race Analysis: Doomben, Winning Edge Stakes

Doomben Race 2, 1350m LR 2YO SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 5, Rail is in the 3.5m position out from the 0.5m point at the last meeting. Fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are only light which will not impact.

There have been 6 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play typical Doomben and favour on pace runners however run on horses will get their chance if run to suit.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes

Starts in the back straight with a long run to the double turn that leads into the home straight ensuring all riders the opportunity to find their preferred positions. Average speed here Absolutlypositivly crossing from gate 11 to lead with Mishani Wrangler providing opposition from gate 1. Triple Arrow and Marseille En Fleur have enough speed to be handy. Curdled has a tricky draw to overcome.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 4 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. At the time of writing Friday (am), there is no value in our top-rated selection however given the very short odds on offer about the favourite, I’m keen to oppose her.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Guissola2CJames Orman5712.4
2Curdled2GJim Byrne575.5
3Mishani Wrangler2GJeff Lloyd578.99
4Triple Arrow2GHugh Bowman5719.8
5Brando2CBrad Stewart577.1
6Marseille En Fleur2FLarry Cassidy5513.6
7Lady Lark2FRobbie Fradd5511.6
8Beach Drum2FMichael Cahill5547.8
10Real Princess2FCorey Brown5566
11Absolutlypositivly2FTommy Berry5512.7
12Pretty Fast2FDamian Browne556.24

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Curdled: Ran on well last time on the heavy 8, up from Sydney and has the necessary talent to win this. My only concern is the tricky gate and where he may end up.

12. Pretty Fast: Having her 3rd career start. Went ok at her first run here last start and now steps up to 1350m with the addition of blinkers first time which could be a problem. Current fixed odds have her very short ($2.90) and at those odds I’m willing to risk her.

5. Brando: Has pace conditions to suit last time but was held up on straightening before hitting the line well in a weaker race. Shapes as an improver and current fixed odds may well end up proving generous.

3. Mishani Wrangler: Racing very well winning his last two starts. This is a harder race but will race on pace and can give a sight. The 1350m is the only real concern.

Disadvantaged Runners

NIL


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 1 potential value bet in the race

 LAY (WIN) Pretty Fast up to at $4.75 (lay liability exposure up to 3% of betting bank)


Related Articles

Feature Race Analysis: Cranbourne Cup

"Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W has three. The betting is headed by ...

Read More

Feature Race Analysis: Cox Plate 2017

"The betting is totally dominated by the champion Winx who looks set to equal Kingston Town’s record of three ...

Read More

Feature Race Analysis: Ascot, December 9 2017

"Early markets have four runner’s single odds chances, the R2W Computer has three. Black Heart Bart holds favouritism at ...

Read More