Feature Race Analysis: Doomben, Saturday May 13 2017

R3 Member’s Handicap 1600m LR HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 1.5m point at the last meeting. Mostly sunny leading up to Saturday with a 50% possibility of showers (1-2mm) predicted on Saturday. Given Doomben’s capabilities we see a track no worse than the current Heavy 8 and could easily see an upgrade before then. The predicted winds are only light so that will not impact. There have been 11 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts from a chute off the home straight with a long enough run to the first turn that leads into the back straight giving all runners enough time to find their early positions. A distinct lack of early speed here with Savvan and Lyra looking the most likely early. The map looks a good option for Candika to push forward from a wide draw. Invincibella and Atomic Kitten can he handy also.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 6 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 3. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Jumbo Prince is value odds. Our second and third selections are under our assessed odds. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection at or above our assessed price. Given the map though we will be reducing our bet.

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Jumbo Prince: Two runs back this preparation have both been good in this grade. With above average tempo he gets his chance and will be running on.

4. Punta Norte:  Did the job for many of our followers last time at good odds. Races on pace again and comes off a high rating on wet ground.

5. Cantbuybetter: Is racing well and last time came through the insides where the ground was inferior. Chance but current odds of $6.00 do not appeal.

7. Sheiswhatsheis: Leader here and will roll along at a decent tempo. For mine her last run was a bit disappointing. For mine she may need a break.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 1 potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Jumbo Prince at $3.50+ (0.7% of your betting bank)

R5 Queensland Day Stakes 1350m LR 3YO SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 1.5m point at the last meeting. Mostly sunny leading up to Saturday with a 50% possibility of showers (1-2mm) predicted on Saturday. Given Doomben’s capabilities we see a track no worse than the current Heavy 8 and could easily see an upgrade before then. The predicted winds are only light so that will not impact. There have been 11 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts from a chute in the back straight with a long enough run to the double turn that leads into the home straight giving all runners plenty of time to find their positions. Decent speed here from inside to out with Camillo and Im A Rippa looking the most likely early. Good Standing, Sylpheed and Billy The Kid can be handy. Billy The Kid faces some risk of a wide trip here.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 6 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 3. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Good Standing is value odds. Our second and third selections are under our assessed odds. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection at or above our assessed price.

Advantaged Horses

1. Good Standing: Maps on pace here which should be an advantage. First up raced in inferior ground at Hakesbury only knocking up late. Will strip fitter here and current fixed odds seem generous. Has a ratings edge over his competition here.

Neutral Horses

2. Mortons Fork: First up off a 70-day spell. Normally races well fresh but his best races are off a more moderate/average tempo.

3. Hall Of Fame: NZ horse appearing here for the first time. Won’t be too far off them on settling. look for betting moves late.

4. Oink: Won well for our followers when first up last time. Will be running on.

7. Billy The Kid: Lightly races improver, ran well behind Oink first up. Still has the glue on shoes but is a chance. Risk of a wide trip based on the map.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 1 potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Good Standing at $3.75+ (1.3% of your betting bank)


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