Feature Race Analysis: Doomben, Saturday June 10 2017

R1 Daybreak Lover 1200m LR 3YO SW $125,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the 0.5m position in from the 5m point at the last meeting. Fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. There are showers predicted (70% chance) for Saturday in the afternoon (1 to 8mm) which could mean that we see a deterioration in the track rating.

The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been nine meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play typical Doomben and favour on pace runners. We are expecting the fence to play evenly and there potential to be an advantage towards rails in run horses.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts in the back straight with a long enough run to the double turn that leads into the home straight providing most time to find their positions. Above Average speed here from inside to out with Im A Rippa and Tiyatrolani the lost likely to go forward from their respective draws. All Over Bosanova, Divine Dice and Chalk could offer opposition for the lead/on pace positions. Heroic Valour could face a wide trip.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. At the time of writing Thursday, there is no value in our top two-rated selections. Accordingly, there is no early recommendation.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Heroic Valour3COpie Bosson60.5927
2Tactical Advantage3GGlyn Schofield56865.1
3Calanda3GKerrin McEvoy567821.4
4Ringos A Rockstar3GBrad Stewart567720.1
5Im A Rippa3GCorey Brown567331.7
6Mount Panorama3GLuke Dittman566722.9
7Double Superlative3GJeff Lloyd566366.7
8Divine Dice3GBridget Grylls567024.4
9Honournstrength3GGlen Colless567021.3
10Chalk3GHugh Bowman566315.8
11Astara3FMichael Cahill558133.6
12Tiyatrolani3FJim Byrne54.58141.6
13Rare Occurrence3FTiffani Brooker548210.4
14All Over Bosanova3FLuke Rolls54785.8

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Tactical Advantage: Ran on strongly to post a solid win in quick time last start beating his main opposition again here All Over Bosanova. Drawn awkwardly here which is some concern and maybe giving away too much start in the straight.

14. All Over Bosanova: Had it won everywhere but the post last start. Lines up against the victor Tactical Advantage again but has a significant map advantage against that gelding. Looks one of the main chances again.

13. Rare Occurrence: Racing well and looks like it will be running on again. Current fixed odds markets ($11) seem to rate her chances correctly.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Heroic Valour: Has drawn awkwardly here and faces the potential of a wide trip. Will need to be at its best with the 60.5 kg to overcome the run if caught wide.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bets in the race.

Reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

R2 Hinkler Handicap 1200m LR HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the 0.5m position in from the 5m point at the last meeting. Fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. There are showers predicted (70% chance) for Saturday in the afternoon (1 to 8mm) which could mean that we see a deterioration in the track rating.

The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been nine meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play typical Doomben and favour on pace runners. We are expecting the fence to play evenly and there potential to be an advantage towards rails in run horses.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts in the back straight with a long enough run to the double turn that leads into the home straight providing most time to find their positions. Above Average speed here from inside to out with Quatronic, Top Tone and Flamboyer the lost likely to go forward from their respective draws. Le Chef and Butterboom can settle handy to the pace.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. At the time of writing Thursday, there is value in our second top two-rated selection. This race presents as an opportunity to support our second selection based on the value on offer and the relative map advantage it has over the other two main rated chances.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Miss Cover Girl5MDamian Browne5910242.1
2Flamboyer6GTye Angland58.5978.13
4Quatronic4GRonnie Stewart58.59716.9
5Nancy5MHugh Bowman581006.79
6Casual Choice7GJim Byrne579432.4
7Too Good To Refuse4HRobbie Fradd579412.7
8Jimmy Rea5GOpie Bosson569225.4
10Sony Legend6GPaul Hammersley559027.8
11Miss Gunpowder4MCraig Williams54928.54
12Irish Constabulary8GPatrick Moloney548815.3
13Top Tone5GLarry Cassidy548732.9
14Trevinder6GTommy Berry548728.9
15Mogador4GCorey Brown548414.9
16Butterboom5MGlyn Schofield548224.5
17Le Chef4GLuke Tarrant548219.2
18Quelle Liaison5MUnknown547422.9
19Soldi Domani5GUnknown547194.7

Advantaged Horses

2. Flamboyer: Resumes here off a 77-day spell. Trialled well enough recently when shod without the blinkers which go back on here. Maps on pace and has that advantage over the other two main market hopes.

Neutral Horses

5. Nancy: Ran on fair late last time in a race where the overall time was below the typical standard for Listed class. 35-days between runs and with the likelihood of settling worse than midfield will need luck. Currently fixed odds($4.40) are below our assessment.

11. Miss Gunpowder: Visitor from SA who has had three runs now for the new stable racing well in two of those. Ran on fairly last time without ever threatening. Will need luck racing in the clockwise direction for the first time. Current fixed odds ($5) do not appeal.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 1 potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Flamboyer at $8.50+ (0.4% of your betting bank)

R3 The Waynes Wilson 1600m LR 3YO+ SWP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the 0.5m position in from the 5m point at the last meeting. Fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. There are showers predicted (70% chance) for Saturday in the afternoon (1 to 8mm) which could mean that we see a deterioration in the track rating.

The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been nine meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play typical Doomben and favour on pace runners. We are expecting the fence to play evenly and there potential to be an advantage towards rails in run horses.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: Starts from a chute that turns before entering the back straight with a long enough run to the double turn that leads into the home straight giving runners time to find their positions. Average to Above Average speed here from inside to out with Moher and Coolring the lost likely to go forward from their respective draws. Religify can provide some opposition early.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. At the time of writing Thursday, there is value in our top-rated selection. This race presents as an opportunity to support our top selection and save on another runner based on the value on offer.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
6Moher4GTye Angland56.5963.99
3Col N Lil5MJeff Lloyd56.51024.6
4Elle Lou5MGlyn Schofield56.5987.17
2Coolring6GKerrin McEvoy57957.82
1Religify6GHugh Bowman571068.4
10Mystic Opal4MLarry Cassidy54.587.511.6
11Ill Fly Away5MDamian Lane54.57250.5
9Alaskan Rose4MPatrick Moloney54.58454.4
5Crack Me Up3GDamian Browne56.57283.7
7Im Belucci4HJim Byrne56.585115.1

Advantaged Horses

6. Moher: Up from Sydney and maps well in the lead. Last start fought on quite well in the worst part of the track. Has a victory and SP profile against Col N Lil.

Neutral Horses

3. Col N Lil: Racing well and fought on strongly last time winning on a Heavy 8 track surface at Eagle Farm and recording a new personal best. As such there is some risk she may regress from that rating here which is of some concern as is the fact that she meets Moher 5.5kg worse for being beaten by it last December.

2. Coolring: Boxed on well enough last time and appears her from Sydney on the quick back-up and with a stronger ride engaged. Races on pace here and rates well enough to be considered a winning chance. At the current fixed odds ($15) represents value.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Religify: Disappointed last time on the wet track at Eagle Farm, often needs things to go his way and the current fixed odds ($3.20) make me want to oppose him strongly.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Moher at $4.00+ (1% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Coolring at $8.00+ (0.5% of your betting bank)


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