Feature Race Analysis: Doomben, Saturday 28th April 2018

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Race 5 Dalrello Stakes 1200m LR 2YO SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated a Soft 5 with the Rail in the 5m position, out from the 1.5m position at the last meeting. Mostly sunny conditions leading up to Saturday which would see a track no worse than the current Soft 7 and perhaps in the 4-5 range. The predicted winds are only moderate so that will not impact. There have been only nine meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners (pace dependant) with the straight playing fair.

Follow me on Twitter @PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.

Tempo

For Saturday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

There is genuine early speed in this race with Racecourse Road looking to take it up with Adoradiva pushing forward trying to come across and sit outside lead. Fish N Snitz from a wide gate and Grand De Lago from a middle draw look to face difficult runs in transit. Mishani Hustler and Invincore can be handy to the speed.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has two. At the time of writing, our top-rated selection Shamurt is value odds (Pure Indulgence is running Friday night so will come out here). Our second selection Mishani Hustler is under the odds. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection at what appears to be good odds.

Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
11Shamurt2FJim Byrne55$2.25
1Mishani Hustler2CTaylor Marshall57$6.50
2Only Wanna Sing2GDamian Browne57$13
4Grand De Lago2GTegan Harrison57$15
13Clockwise2FMichael Cahill55$17
6Invincore2CJeff Lloyd57$26
7Coastal Boy2CTiffani Brooker57$31
9Starvirgo2CRegan Bayliss57$34
14Adoradiva2FUnknown55$41
5Grim Reaper2CPaul Hammersley57$51
8Racecourse Road2CRon Stewart57$61
10Injustice2GMatthew McGillivray57$61
12Fish N Snitz2FLuke Tarrant55$81
15Pure Indulgence2FUnknown55$101

Advantaged Horses

11. Shamurt: Lining up for her third career start after having won at her first two. Is up to 1200m for this race which looks suitable given her sectional profile. Jim Byrne retains the ride and assuming he rides her forward she can settle in the first four runners. She is clearly the one they all must beat and at current fixed odds of $2.80 looks a decent gamble.

Neutral Horses

1. Mishani Hustler: Is fifth up in his first preparation which is something I don’t like but has won three of his last four starts so he is flying. In his last two wins he was able to lead and the setup of this race would suggest that he won’t get the same conditions here and could in fact be caught three wide. At current fixed odds I must be against him but at the same time he is a clear second rated selection.

2. Only Wanna Sing: Won first up over 1110m before being run down over 1200m second up. Has trialled since his last run (plated) and won in only fair time wearing blinkers which he gets here. Doesn’t get the same setup in this and with a wide trip midfield or worse looks well under his right price.

11. Grand De Lago: Tested the favourite Shamurt last start and the step up to 1200m looks ideal save for a difficult draw. If he had drawn better, he could have been rated much shorter, blowout chance.

Disadvantaged Horse

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) – Shamurt at $2.25+ (2.2% of your betting bank)

Race 8 Victory Stakes 1200m GP2 WFA $200,000

Track

Currently rated a Soft 5 with the Rail in the 5m position, out from the 1.5m position at the last meeting. Mostly sunny conditions leading up to Saturday which would see a track no worse than the current Soft 7 and perhaps in the 4-5 range. The predicted winds are only moderate so that will not impact. There have been only nine meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners (pace dependant) with the straight playing fair.

Follow me on Twitter @PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

There is a genuine amount of early speed in this race with the likes of the two natural leaders Jungle Edge and Monsieur Gustave. I Am Excited should be ridden forward from the gate and can settle in the first three or four. The favourite Impending gets back and is likely to be around 6 lengths off them on settling.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. At the time of writing, our top-rated selection Impending is under the odds. Our equal second selections are also under the odds. The race presents an opportunity to oppose one of our equal second selections that currently looks a good lay opportunity.

Runner Analysis

 

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Impending4HDamian Browne58.5110$2.00
5Supido6HJeff Lloyd58.5105$8.00
9I Am Excited3FMichael Cahill54.595$8
3Most Important5GJim Byrne58.5106$9
2Jungle Edge7GKevin Forrester58.5108$15
4Monsieur Gustave5GTiffani Brooker58.5104$16
7Havasay5GBrad Stewart58.588$101
6Privlaka5GMatthew McGillivray58.591$201

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

1. Impending: Resumes from a 168-day spell having had just the one trial in preparation for this race. Is headed for bigger races over the Brisbane carnival so isn’t likely to be fully wound up for this assignment. Is the one they all have to beat but his likely map position means that I cannot mark him any shorter that the $2.00 rated price.

9. I Am Excited: Flying this preparation with three Sydney metropolitan wins and a placing from four runs back. Maps well for this and is an each-way chance but cannot get him any shorter than the $8.00 rated price.

11. Most Important: Resumes from a 91-day spell after going out very well in what was his best rating to date. Has trialled in fast time (when plated) in preparation for this race. His best form is one dry surfaces and normally takes a run before he reaches his best form. Could rate shorter than the current assessed price If there is a confident betting move for him.

Disadvantaged Horse

5. Supido: Normally has a maximum of three runs in a preparation so given he lines up for his fourth run in a preparation here off a 36-day break seems a little unusual. Currently he is the second favourite $3.80 in early markets which is under the odds given his setup for this race and his likely map position which is likely to be worse than midfield on the rails. At current odds he looks a good risk.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

 LAY (WIN) Supido on the BSP (0.9% of your betting bank)


©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2018. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.


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