Feature Race Analysis: Saturday 23rd June 2018

Doomben R2: Winning Edge Stakes, 1350m LR 2YO SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated a Good 4 with the Rail in the 3.5m position, out from the true position at the last meeting. Sunny conditions which should see a track no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are light which will not impact. There have been only five meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage horses racing on pace with the straight playing fairly even however you should keep an eye on the inside lanes in the straight for any signs that it may not be fair.

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Genuine tempo early here with Victory Toast and Soaring Heart contesting the lead. Serlina and Genelli will race handy. The hot favourite Granny Red Shoes will most likely be giving them a start.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. As at the time of writing Friday, there is no value in early markets. The short-priced Granny Red Shoes stifles the market at $1.50. Based on current prices I can’t recommend taking the short odds.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
4Granny Red Shoes2FBlake Shinn55$1.80
6Light Up The Room2FJim Byrne55$8.50
1Soaring Heart2GJeff Lloyd57$10
2Spending My Time2CMatthew McGillivray57$11
5Victory Toast2FBobby El-Issa55$12
9Serlina2FCorey Brown55$34
3Gemelli2GJason Taylor57$61
7Lollipop Rocket2FJamie Kah55$151

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

4. Granny Red Shoes: Stifles the betting in early markets at $1.50 and is impossible to go past based on her last start rating. The only slight concern is that whilst she looked impressive which was backed up by the fact that she ran the fastest last 1000,800,600,400 and 200 of the race she was bias assisted which makes it difficult to mark her as short as what the market has.

6. Light Up The Room: Only had the one start for a win at the Gold Coast in average time for 2YO maiden class. Will improve from that and rates the next best but a long way off the favourite.

1. Soaring Heart: Interesting that Jeff Lloyd gets off the favourite to ride this gelding who hasn’t raced for 41 days. Has proven his completeness to be considered an each-way chance here and will be there for a long way.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bet in the race.

Doomben R7: G.H. Mumm Stakes, 1615m LR QLTY $100,000

Track

Currently rated a Good 4 with the Rail in the 3.5m position, out from the true position at the last meeting. Sunny conditions which should see a track no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are light which will not impact. There have been only five meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage horses racing on pace with the straight playing fairly even however you should keep an eye on the inside lanes in the straight for any signs that it may not be fair.

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Genuine tempo early here with Sheiswhatsheis rolling along in the lead. Cantbutbetter races on pace with Grande Rosso and Slydini handy. Hopfgarten faces a task from his gate as does Lordag. Jamaican Rain and Ulmann settle midfield.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. As at the time of writing Friday, there is no value in early markets. The improving Jamaican Rain has come up favourite in early markets well below our assessed price.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
7Noire4MBrenton Avdulla5493$3.75
10Jamaican Rain5MJamie Kah5481$4.00
2Ulmann6GMichael Cahill59103$6
6Sheiswhatsheis6MJeff Lloyd5497$12
3Grande Rosso6GKerrin McEvoy57.5100$12
1Hopfgarten7GJake Bayliss59.5104$15
11Slydini6GRonnie Stewart5481$51
8Outraged6GJim Byrne5490$61
5Cantbuybetter6GBobby El-Issa5595$61
9Lordag7GJames Orman5488$61
4Someday9GMark Du Plessis55.596$67

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

7. Noire: Went to a new peak last start on a heavy 9 surface at Randwick over 1200m. Gets back worse than midfield here and steps up to this distance for the first time fairly quickly which is a slight concern but has the best overall recent rating.

10. Jamaican Rain: Improving lightly raced mare who has won both runs back this preparation. Races clockwise for the first time but with a nice run in transit should get her chance but her current odds of $2.90 appear way too short.

2. Ulmann: Was terrific last time after being held up and having to shift back to the inside in the worst ground ran on solidly to just miss. With luck in running could easily win this.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bet in the race however I suggest you monitor the Exchange closer to race time for any value especially around Ulmann and Noire. If Jamaican Rain stays around the current quote of $2.90 then I’m happy to oppose her.


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