Feature Race Analysis: Doomben, G.H MUMM Quality

Doomben Race 6, 1615m LR HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 5, Rail is in the 3.5m position out from the 0.5m point at the last meeting. Fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are only light which will not impact.

There have been 6 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play typical Doomben and favour on pace runners however run on horses will get their chance if run to suit

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes

Starts from a chute that turns before entering the back straight with a long enough run to the double turn that leads into the home straight giving runners time to find their positions. Average speed here with Religify most likely crossing from gate 11 to lead with Double Impact either outside lead or trailing.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 5 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 4. At the time of writing Friday (am), our top-rated selection appears to be about the right price. This race presents as an opportunity to support our top selection despite the lack of early value, as our 2nd and 3rd rated selections are both under the odds and map far less favourably. The current odds of our 5th rated selection warrant a speculative bet.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Religify6GHugh Bowman60.51073.71
2Hopfgarten6GCorey Brown5910414.2
3Man Of His Word4GJeff Lloyd54.5954.11
4Elle Lou5MKerrin McEvoy54988.9
5Payroll4MJim Byrne54958.72
6Double Impact8GTegan Harrison548513.4
7Anton En Avant7GLarry Cassidy5484109.3
8Pindan Pearl6MRobbie Fradd548224.4
9Sagaronne4MTommy Berry548243.2
10Ill Fly Away5MMichael Cahill547527.4
11Rogali5GTiffani Brooker5467349.7
12Larebil5GLuke Tarrant5459446.4

Advantaged Horses

1. Religify: Got to the lead and dictated before dashing clear to win here last start. Went through an above average first section (+4.5 lengths) adding merit to the win. Gets conditions to suit again and will he hard to get past.

Neutral Horses

3. Man Of His Word: Although suited by the pace shape of the race last start was held up at a vital stage before running on when clear to finish 1.2 lengths behind Payroll who he faces again today. Settles midfield here and will need to be at his absolute best to justify the current ($3.40) quote.

4. Elle Lou: Got too far back last time before making some ground in the straight albeit with pace conditions to suit. Expect a similar performance again here.

6. Double Impact: Races on pace. Had to really work on speed last time and still produced a good effort to be beaten only 1 length behind Payroll. Current fixed odds of $26 appeal.

Disadvantaged Runners

5. Payroll: They went like the clappers up front last time (+10.5 lengths to the 600m) which combined with a great ride enabled this mare to win. Won’t get the same conditions here, gets back again and seems very short odds at the current quote of $4.60.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 2 potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Religify $3.75+ (1.1% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Double Impact $14+ (0.3% of your betting bank)


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