Feature Race Analysis – Daybreak Lover, 10 June 2018

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Sunshine Coast Race 8, 1200m LR 3YO SWP $125,000

Track

Currently rated a Heavy 9 with the Rail in the 4m position, out from the True position at the last meeting. Mostly cloudy Saturday with a chance of further showers which should see a track rated in the Heavy range most likely 8-9. The predicted winds are gentle to moderate which should not impact. There have been 14 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track could advantage horses racing on pace with the best spot a few off in the straight.

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulD01 for live track updates and other betting information.

Tempo

For Sundays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Mail Escort from a middle draw leads Sun Quan who will hold a spot from the inside draw. Hearts Lifted races on pace. The Bostorian from NZ can race on pace also if desired but may need to use some petrol early to do so. Winter Bride and So Invincible are not far away.

Race Overview

At the time of writing there are no Early fixed odds markets. The likely favourite is Savatiano who won by a big pace in Sydney last start. At this stage I cannot recommend any horse without a guide to the likely prices but will post an updated market on Twitter on Sunday morning.

Runners

HN Horse AS Jockey HCP ALL HR R2W$
11 Savatiano 3F Glyn Schofield 54 85 $4.25
5 Sun Quan 3G Mark Zahra 56 72 $10
3 Beau Geste 3C Michael Dee 56 80 $11
8 Scallopini 3G Boris Thornton 56 69 $11
13 Winter Bride 3F Jeff Lloyd 54 76.5 $11
16 Italia Bella 3F Luke Tarrant 54 73 $16
4 Shogun Sun 3G James Orman 56 75 $21
10 Mail Escort 3G Ronnie Stewart 56 69 $26
7 So Invincible 3G Tiffani Brooker 56 70 $31
18 Hearts Lifted 3F Scott Galloway 54 62 $31
12 Colosimo 3F Ben Looker 54 72.5 $34
2 The Bostonian 3G Michael Cahill 56.5 78 $34
9 Unlikely Story 3G Jim Byrne 56 65 $41
15 Sheikha 3F Tegan Harrison 54 77 $41
6 Equal Balance 3G Luke Rolls 56 73 $51
17 Divine Messenger 3F Unknown 54 66 $67
14 Cooroi Chase 3F Michael Hellyer 54 70 $101

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

Savatiano – Led and controlled the race before winning by a big 4.37 lengths last start in what was her best speed figure to date. Is a deserved favourite for this race but gets a different setup and will not be able to get control like she did last start. Is most likely to be midfield here and as long as they are running on which should be the case will be hard to beat but may not be any value.

Sun Quan – Comes here from VIC where he has been racing competitively. Races right on the speed and is one of four chances away from the favourite that are hard to separate.

Winter Bride –  won in fast time in a new career peak first up. Races just off the pace here and is a genuine chance in this away from the favourite.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

 


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bet in the race.


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