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R8 Cranbourne Cup, 2025m LR QLTY $300,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m at the last meeting here. Showers clearing Friday, partly cloudy on Saturday and mainly fine conditions on race day should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 4. The predicted winds are light which won’t impact. There have been 22 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track could advantage horses racing handy to the pace and away from the fence in the straight.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.


Tempo 

For Sunday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.


Map Notes

Starts in a Shute in the home straight with a long enough run to the first of a large double turn. With decent speed drawn across the field (those runners drawn wider that have early speed) will need to make decisions early.


Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W has three. The betting is headed by Lizzie Lamour with the import Folkswood and Nozomi together on the second line. Ecuador and Cool Chap are the other main market chances.

Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
2Folkswood5GKerrin McEvoy59105$5.50
9Nozomi6GCraig Williams5494$8.67
1Ecuador8GAdam Hyeronimus59.5106$10.10
11Count Da Vinci7GDavid Pires5492$11.20
5Lizzie Lamour5MDamien Oliver57105$12.30
4Guardini7HBrad Rawiller58.5104$13.30
10Our Century7GBeau Mertens5493$15.30
8Cool Chap5GRegan Bayliss5597$16.30
17Spanish Reef4MBen E Thompson5478$16.60
14Moonovermanhattan6GDamian Lane5488$18.90
16Oncidium Ruler6GEthan Brown5483$32.60
3Assign7GKatelyn Mallyon58.5104$36.50
15Red Alto5GMichael Walker5487$48.30
7Big Memory8GLuke Currie55.598$59.80
13Magnapal8GNikita Beriman5490$76.90
6Berisha6GRyan Maloney55.598$189.80
12Grey Lion6HDean Yendall5492$304.00

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Folkswood: Import from the Charlie Appleby stable making his debut in Australia. Has a decent amount of early speed if required and from a tricky draw will no doubt look to press forward. If he finds a favourable on pace position early, he looks the logical favourite based on his overseas figures. Respect any late betting moves.

9. Nozomi: Got well back last time and ran on strongly but was suited by the pace shape of the race. Steps up in trip which isn’t a problem but offers no value on current prices.

1. Ecuador: Was suited by the on-pace bias last start. Looks one of the most likely to contest the lead but my concern is that his best ratings are when there is less pressure than what he faces here.

11. Count Da Vinci: Boxed on well off an above average pace last start behind Cool Chap. At his third run back this preparation he can perform competitively.

5. Lizzie Lamour: Was shuffled right back last start before running on well against the sectionals and bias. That run has stamped her early favourite for this. Whilst her run was full of merit, I must question whether the $5.00 current price is fair. She could win this but at the odds I must look elsewhere.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Folkswood at $5.50+ (0.7% of your betting bank) – BUT only if there is good betting support.


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