Feature Race Analysis

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R8 Kingston Town Classic, 1800m GP1 3YO+ WFA $1,000,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the true position in from the 3m position (which is where it was at the same meeting last year) and at the last meeting. Mostly Sunny conditions should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 3 (played that way last week despite an official Good 4 rating). The predicted winds are quite gentle to moderate which should not impact. There have been 16 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners with the possibility that rails in run could be a positive.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.


Tempo

For Saturday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo. Out of interest the median early speed for the last 7 years of this race has been +7 lengths above PAR.


Early Speed

Great Shot looks like he can cross easily and take up the lead or steady and allow either Material Man or Its Somewhat the lead role. In any case they look the main contenders for the main lead/pace positions. Tom Melbourne and Achernar Star can settle handy to the pace. Perfect Jewel looks to have a tricky draw with either the possibility of a nice run midfield or being trapped three wide. Black Heart Bart looks to be midfield or slightly worse on the fence.


Race Overview

Early markets have four runner’s single odds chances, the R2W Computer has three. Black Heart Bart holds favouritism at $3.20, Its Somewhat at $5.50, Perfect Jewel at $6.50 and Tom Melbourne at $8.50. There is no early value in our top-rated selection Black Heart Bart but there is enough value to warrant backing two others to beat him.


Runner Analysis

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Black Heart Bart7GBrad Rawiller59116$3.48
2Its Somewhat7GBrenton Avdulla59113$4.53
4Tom Melbourne7GDamien Oliver59106$6.35
13Achernar Star3GChris Parnham5283$12.30
15Perfect Jewel3FWilliam Pike5083$16.00
6Material Man6GMitchell Pateman5996$20.90
3Great Shot5GCraig Staples59108$29.10
7All Our Roads6GMichael Walker5998$34.90
8Life Less Ordinary6GDouglas Whyte5997$41.70
5Pounamu6GPatrick Carbery5996$66.50
11Cosmic Storm6MGlenn Smith5793$70.30
9Gatting4GLee Newman58.594$94.30
14Money Maher3CJoseph Azzopardi5275$111.90
12Royal Star4MJarrad Noske56.584$160.80

Advantaged Horses

4. Tom Melbourne: Just failed to land a big result for us last time in the Railway. Was held up just a touch but did race in inferior ground on the inside of the winner which might have been the difference. In any case I have assessed him on his Cantala Stakes run which gives him a competitive chance to be in the finish again. Looks to map well handy to the pace and should get his chance to win.

2. Its Somewhat: Hasn’t raced for four weeks but has successfully won at this distance off a similar break previously. Has trialled locally here and this race has been the target all along. Can press forward and be in the first three which gives him his chance to be in the finish.

Neutral Horses

1. Black Heart Bart: Drawn Barrier 1 which should see him midfield or slightly worse on the rail. Last start sat wide with cover and just missed indicating he’s on track for this. He deserves favouritism but will need some luck in the straight and at the current fixed odds of $3.20 is under my assessed price.

13. Achernar Star: Of the 3YO horses he looks the one with the best credentials for this race. Got shuffled back and was held up last time before running on strongly in inferior ground. Is an improving type who can race well.

6. Material Man: Longshot who gets a nice run here and could run a competitive race without totally surprising. One for the multiples so would include as a place chance.

Disadvantaged Horses

15. Perfect Jewel: 3YO filly who beat Achernar Star in the WA Guineas last start. Sat three wide with cover but came in the better part of the track in the straight. Has drawn awkwardly here and there is a risk that she may face a wide trip so at the current fixed odds of $6.50 she is one to avoid.


Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Its Somewhat at $4.60+ (1.1% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Tom Melbourne $6.40+ (0.8% of your betting bank)


©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2017. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. All intellectual property contained in this Feature Race Analysis is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.


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