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MONTHLY TIPSTER PERFORMANCE: MAY

THE MAY TIPSTER RESULTS

The May results are in and it was another pleasing period for tipsters, with 11 individuals turning a profit, and with tipsters across all three racing codes prominent in the top six.

With the conclusion of the Popular Pros v Bookies segment in early May, it was fantastic to have four individuals from that competition occupy spots in the top ten for the month.

Eight tipsters went at 100% on Lay Bets for the month of May, and the return of Bella Anderson was a successful one, with the Mounting Yard expert turning a profit and landing 75% of Lay Bets from the track.

We also had eight successful tips at north of $10, and eight successful lays at south of $2.

Lay Back with Betfair co-host and racehorse trainer Reece Goodwin was the leading performer across May with 19 units of profit and a 36% strike rate.

The month saw Group 1 racing in focus all the way through, and Goodwin spoke with pride about leading the way on Betfair’s flagship program.

“Very pleased & also surprised to be leading tipster for the month, we have plenty of good judges & form analyst at Betfair!” Goodwin said.

“Training horses comes with having to place your horses well so doing form for races is a very important part of what I do every day of the week & it’s great to see it pay off with finding some winners on the Lay Back with Betfair show.”

Goodwin also reflected on his highlights for the month.

“Would have to be the hamburger with the lot I delivered in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000

“I was against I Wish I Win, layed him, & then backed Bella Nipotina, she of course knocked him off in the driving finish

“The great game is made up of inches & if it was an inch the other way in the photo finish i would’ve been the villain instead of the hero,” He added.

” I probably should mention En Francais on the 11th of May winning over the Adelaide carnival at a healthy double figure price.”

Goodwin has made himself well and truly at home on Lay Back with Betfair in the past 12 months, and he has been thrilled to be a part of the journey.

“Absolutely love being apart of the Lay Back With Betfair show. Something I enjoy doing each week. Always great to catch up with Nick Foot & Tom Haylock for a laugh & hopefully a few winners.”

A consistently strong performer across the Greyhound space has been Jaycin Campbell who covers both Queensland and Western Australia. Campbell sat inside the top four for the month for the fifth time since October and he reflected on the month and the challenge of tipping in two states.

“It’s always pleasing to see positive results and hopefully Betfair users are enjoying a nice run of late. Doing form in multiple states is seamless. It’s not something to be applauded in my opinion. I just carry a core group of principles that can translate across multiple jurisdictions.” He said.

Campbell landed an extraordinary 71% of his “best bets” for the month and he spoke about what goes into putting a runner on top of all tips for the day.

“The difference between a “general bet” and “best bet” for me is typically clarity on the race. If I have a good understanding of the majority, if not all runners in a race I can typically pinpoint when a dog gets his or her “Birthday set up”. This means a particular dog has absolutely no excuse not to run to his or her best and if their price is longer than my predicted price, I will bet.” he added.

Standout Back tips:

Tipster Date Code Venue Selection_Name Bsp
Scott Hill 27/05/2024 Harness Pinjarra Get Ya Bets On $24.00
Lachlan Mosley 11/05/2024 Thoroughbred Morphettville En Francais $18.37
Reece Goodwin 11/05/2024 Thoroughbred Morphettville En Francais $18.37
Wolfden Pro Picks 9/05/2024 Thoroughbred Pakenham Gymkhana $14.21
Lachlan Mosley 26/05/2024 Thoroughbred Mount Gambier Crackle N Burn $13.59
Joe Lannutti 14/05/2024 Greyhounds Gosford Little Bit Rocky $13.00
Rory Flanagan 4/05/2024 Thoroughbred Newmarket Liberty Lane 11.46
Wolfden Pro Picks 1/05/2024 Thoroughbred Warrnambool Tuvalu $10.51
Bella Anderson 25/05/2024 Thoroughbred Sandown Wondereach $9.96
Lachlan Mosley 1/05/2024 Thoroughbred Murray Bridge King Moya $9.95

Standout Lay Tips:

Tipster Date Code Venue Selection_Name Bsp
Michael Tye 27/05/2024 Greyhounds Ballarat Aston Western $1.45
Chris Camilleri 8/05/2024 Thoroughbred Sandown Lady Di Di $1.57
Rory Flanagan 4/05/2024 Thoroughbred Newmarket City Of Troy 1.69
Rory Flanagan 26/05/2024 Thoroughbred Curragh Camille Pissarro 1.73
Michael Tye 9/05/2024 Greyhounds Sandown Park Mackenna $1.81
Linton Chataway 26/05/2024 Thoroughbred Ballarat Sophast $1.90
Chris Camilleri 1/05/2024 Thoroughbred Ipswich Winning Edition $1.94
Mitch Lewis 30/05/2024 Thoroughbred Hawkesbury Cryptonic $1.94
Shane Ciurleo 1/05/2024 Thoroughbred Ipswich Astin Lane $2.17
Jackson Oldham 13/05/2024 Thoroughbred Mornington Brazen Kingdom $2.18

THE MARCH TIPSTER RESULTS

It was a sensational March for Betfair tipsters! With Autumn drawing to a close, the month of March proved to be one of the strongest across the board performances we’ve seen.

Overall, 26 tipsters were profitable across March which is a record for the past year, with 51.15 units of profit recorded across Best Bets and an additional 21.08 units of profit for Lay Betting.

Eight winners were tipped at double figure odds and 13 runners under $2 were successful lays.

It was also a month in which ten tipsters went at 100% on lay bets, and a special mention to the flagship lay competition of Pros v Bookies which has produced an outstanding period of results.

Both teams are hovering about 20 units of profit through nine weeks of competition which is a credit to all tipsters.

Mitch Lewis has been a welcome addition to the Betfair family, taking care of Late Mail selections during the early part of 2024. He successfully laid “On The Scent” at Strathalbyn at the remarkable odds of $1.43.

“I do try to take on short price faves and in particular if they are maiden runners. And I do this a bit depending on how I see the race shaping.” Lewis said.

“I put a lot into my race maps and for On The Scent in particular, it had drawn barrier one and had shown to get back in previous runs. So I was anticipating he may end up in an uncomfortable position and needing to come to the inside which can be inferior ground at Strathalbyn. So I was happy to take that risk at his price and it worked out well.

“With my lay betting I do like to try and lay runners below that $2 mark just because if you find the right one, you don’t need a huge liability to get a profit.” He added.

Lewis’s role has expanded in recent weeks to take in NSW racing, which has included Feature Saturday’s at Randwick and Rosehill and up to a dozen Group 1 races.

“Very excited to have been starting Sydney right as the Autumn carnival has kicked off. With the amount of high class races and mixing form lines combining, it makes for fascinating races and markets to analyse, so for me it’s a great time to be kicking off.” Lewis said.

Rory Flanagan owned the best bet of the month with a tremendous performance at Meydan.

Flanagan backed Rebel’s Romance at $32.29 and spoke about what made him pull the trigger.

“Rebel’s Romance has long been a very good horse and has too much of a winning profile to have deserved that large of a BSP.” Flanagan said.

“He had a mishap slipping over in America and lost his confidence last prep before being spelled and bouncing back. I don’t think many people respected his performance in Doha first-up when he won so arrogantly from the front and he could have won by further if he was fitter.

“This gave me the feeling that he was going to be ridden handy, especially when they drew wide. With Aidan O’Brien usually sending a horse to dictate fractions and slow things to a crawl mid-race for Auguste Rodin, there was a chance he’d be well-positioned to take advantage and that is exactly what happened.

“There’s a deep satisfaction from a race unfolding exactly as you’ve scripted it and betting accordingly, regardless of what the market is trending towards.” He added.

South Australia’s Lachlan Mosley was the best performed tipster overall for the month, with a 23 unit profit from 117 bets. Mosley also managed to find four winners at double figures across the month.

One of Betfair’s most consistent tipsters is Scott Hill, with the Western Australian harness expert landing a 21.78 unit profit in March to finish second overall.

Mitch Lewis was third, with strong months from Rory Flanagan, Jamie Cockshutt (Tasmanian Harness), The Carrolls (Victorian Harness), and Glenn Ingram (Victorian Thoroughbred Late Mail.

Standout Back tips:

  • Rory Flanagan | 30-3-2024 | Meydan | Rebels Romance | BSP: $32.29
  • Lachlan Mosley | 6-3-2024 | Balaklava | Amelia Valentina | BSP: $15.5
  • Joe Lannutti | 4-3-2024 | Nowra | Imploding Mirage | BSP: $12.5
  • Lachlan Mosley | 30-3-2024 | Oakbank | Oath Of Omerta | BSP: $11.5
  • Lachlan Mosley | 31-3-2024 | Penola | El Salto | BSP: $11.5
  • Lachlan Mosley | 2-3-2024 | Morphettville | Angelic Appeal | BSP: $10.85
  • Scott Hill | 29-3-2024 | Gloucester Park | Dominus Factum | BSP: $10.5
  • Rory Flanagan | 30-3-2024 | Meydan | Laurel River | BSP: $10.13

 

Standout Lay Tips:

  • Mitch Lewis | 13-3-2024 | Strathalbyn | On The Scent | BSP: $1.43
  • Barry Cook | 27-3-2024 | Randwick | Reasonable | BSP: $1.61
  • Michael Tye | 8-3-2024 | Horsham | Catch My Drift | BSP: $1.79
  • Joe Lannutti | 26-3-2024 | Gosford | Armatree Cash | BSP: $1.82
  • Dave Dwyer | 27-3-2024 | Randwick | Biographer | BSP: $1.86
  • Gareth Phillips | 27-3-2024 | Randwick | Biographer | BSP: $1.86
  • Gareth Phillips | 13-3-2024 | Randwick | Amoreaux | BSP: $1.87
  • Barry Cook | 20-3-2024 | Wyong | Eclipsion | BSP: $1.95
  • Gareth Phillips | 6-3-2024 | Warwick Farm | Piercing Arrow | BSP: $1.96
  • Mitch Lewis | 16-3-2024 | Morphettville | My Haruconi | BSP: $1.96
  • Shane Ciurleo | 2-3-2024 | Eagle Farm | Jungle Prince | BSP: $1.97
  • Steve Walters | 2-3-2024 | Eagle Farm | Jungle Prince | BSP: $1.97
  • Mark Lawrence | 31-3-2024 | Victor Harbor | Moops | BSP: $1.98

THE FEBRUARY TIPSTER RESULTS

A 2024 newcomer has continued an electric start to his time with Betfair, blitzing through February with some dominant numbers.

New recruit John Walter topped the list of Betfair tipsters over the past month with his weekly Watchlist, but the chasing pack looks equally as pleasing when put in context.

With Autumn racing in full flight, it is fantastic to see Thoroughbred tipsters Linton Chataway (New South Wales) sitting third, Jackson Oldham (Victoria) sitting fifth, and Shane Ciurleo (QLD) sitting sixth for the month.

Three of our most popular articles each week are the metro Saturday selections of those three gentleman, so to have them in all strong form has been a wonderful asset.

John Walter’s month was clearly a standout though, with a staggering 31-unit profit and a truly mind blowing 241% ROI!

Walter recently launched a new streaming show where he offers live previews of upcoming races, analyses Betfair market moves, provides updates, engages in live betting and trading, all while answering questions from his audience in real-time.

An entertaining and educational viewing experience for punters wanting to watch a pro live on the job.

46% of Walter’s bets were successful and he reflected on the month just gone.

“It can be a tricky time of year as a rule, with so many horses progressing to their target races over the next month or so,” Walter said.

“But that also creates opportunity for value at times, when the better class horses on paper might not be at their peak yet. This time around a few things have fallen our way, and hopefully it continues throughout the Autumn Carnival.”

Walter’s best result for the month was tipping Welwal at $18.50 at Rosehill on February 24, and he reflected on what goes into reading form.

“For me to be confident heading into a race it is all about setup. Basically ticking boxes and eliminating queries. The better the strength of your horses setup compared to its rivals today, the more that can potentially go wrong and you are still in a position to overcome it,” Walter added.

“Where is the horse at in its preparation fitness wise? Is it ready to perform to a level necessary to win this race today? Where do you need to be ideally in the run for this race? Looking at likely speed, tempo and any potential bias that could be expected. Does the rider suit this horse? Are there any disadvantages likely to key rivals in this race today? It’s always great to find horses that have strong positives going for them and their main rivals also have things against.”

Victorian Greyhound expert Michael Tye finished second for the month, giving him four consecutive top five finishes. This was particularly pleasing given the month contained multiple Group races.

February also saw the return of Pros v Bookies with their twice weekly Lay betting competition. 13 of the 16 tipsters produced better than 50% strike rates on Lay bets through the month in what has been an excellent start to season two of that comp.

Overall across the three racing codes, we saw 11 tipsters produce a higher than 80% strike rate on Lay Bets with seven of those going at 100%.

The best individual results for the month in terms of BSP were as follows.

Standout Back tips:

  • Linton Chataway – Goulburn 15/2/24 – Ticklebelly BSP $25.94
  • John Walter – Rosehill 24/2/24 – Welwal BSP $18.50
  • Michael Tye – Ballarat 26/2/24 – Second Thoughts BSP $12.58

Standout Lay Tips:

  • Joe Lanutti – Gosford 20/2/24 – Shack Up Beast BSP $1.48
  • Michael Tye – Geelong 2/2/24 – Rapid Heart BSP $1.53
  • Bella Anderson – Sandown 28/2/24 – Et Tu Brute BSP $1.56

Some overall data for the month

51% of best bets were successful
73% of total lays were successful

To watch John Walter’s Live Racing Watch streams head to Kick.com/Racingwatch

THE JANUARY TIPSTER RESULTS

THE BEST OF 2023

A newcomer shines and some old heads dominate!

The 2023 season of racing was a memorable one across all three codes, and Exchange punters had their experience taken to a new level with some major developments at Betfair.

On top of the ability to bet on exotics, Betfair provided unique mounting yard insights through Bella Anderson’s Saturday work, as well as comprehensive and multi-layered coverage of Group 1 racing across Thoroughbreds, Harness and Greyhounds.

Pleasingly, the top five performers for the year in terms of profit generated all covered different avenues. Victorian Harness, Victorian Thoroughbred Mounting Yard, South Australian Greyhounds, West Aussie trots and Group 1 Thoroughbred Feature Previews.

Bella Anderson’s unique Mounting Yard insights proved incredibly valuable, with her selections generating 72.5 units of profit for the year, with the highest percentage ROI for the 2023 calendar season.

“I was thrilled to join the Betfair team in 2023 and what a cracking year it was!,” Anderson said.

“Finding my edge through my “lays of the yard” was definitely the highlight.

“Not only due to the success but most importantly because it demonstrates the importance of mounting yard in supporting form and how crucial horse parade is.”

87% of Anderson’s lay bets were successful, but the majority of her profit (57 out of the 72 units) came from her best backs, with some excellent selections.

“My hopes for 2024 are to continue to grow mounting yard awareness and education as well as to lay plenty more losers,” Anderson added.

The Victorian Harness duo of Brett and Darren Carroll topped the list for units of profit with an impressive 87.7. This included a staggering 66% of best bets being successful, and 42% of all bets, as well as 84% of Lay Bets.

“We try to not get too hung up on the prices in early markets. The really hard part is finding a runner that you are confident will win, so let’s just worry about the odds closer to jump time,” Brett Carroll said.

“As far as finding winners, well it’s an inexact science pooling together a lot of information from a range of elements. Not in order & not exhaustive but form, trials, sectionals,  race maps & driver analysis the basic tools we use.” Carroll added.

Big time racing also brings out feature race previewer Dean Evans, with Evans looking at all Group 1s for the calendar year. Evans landed a 21 unit profit which was an excellent result given the quality of the fields assembled.

SA Greyhound expert Mark Lawrence and WA Harness guru Scott Hill both produced double figure profits.

Some new additions that turned minor profits in their infancy were the Tip Titans team and the daily Number Crunch article who provide different perspectives on racing and sport.

One thing that is also true in racing is that we all have our favourite tracks, and the stats showed that some were particularly profitable.

The best track anywhere in Australia for Thoroughbreds was Caulfield with a 77.5 unit profit, led by Anderson, Evans, Jackson Oldham and the Lay Back with Betfair team.

In the Greyhound domain it was Cannington in the West that was the most successful for Jaycin Campbell, providing great results.

In the Trots realm the three most profitable tracks were in three different stats with Kilmore, Gloucester Park and Globe Derby the most successful.

A full breakdown can be found below!

Stay tuned in 2024 for more developments, including the expanding of the Pros v Bookies concept, Lay Back with Betfair and our Top 5 predictor.

Other performances of note are:

-Linton Chataway with an impressive 45% total strike rate, including 80% of lays from the highest number of bets across all tipsters

-Kingsley Bartholomew with the shortest priced and second short priced lays of the year at $1.40 and $1.42 in our Pro Lays competition.

-Michael Tye with the highest Lay profit of the year, with 17.54 units from 233 bets.

-Eight tipsters made profits overall on both best bets and best lays for the year

-Jaycin Campbell for delivering two separate double figure lay streaks

 

Top  3 Tracks – Thoroughbred

TRACK CODE LOCATION PROFIT
Caulfield THO VIC 77.6
Strathalbyn THO SA 35.0
Pakenham THO VIC 25.0

 

Top  3 Tracks – Greyhounds

TRACK CODE LOCATION PROFIT
Cannington GRE WA 17.0
Shepparton GRE VIC 12.4
Hobart GRE TAS 8.7

 

Top 3 Tracks – Harness

TRACK CODE LOCATION PROFIT
Kilmore HAR VIC 31.3
Gloucester Park HAR WA 25.9
Globe Derby HAR SA 23.4

 

ALL PROFITABLE TIPSTERS LISTED BELOW 

THE NOVEMBER TIPSTER RESULTS

November’s tipster results are in and all three major racing codes have been recognised at the top!

The month saw the pinnacle of the Melbourne Spring Carnival at Flemington, as well as strong racing in NSW and the beginning of Perth’s summer program.

For the second straight month it was the NSW experts who led the way in Thoroughbreds, whilst a dominant Harness pair stood tall in the big time again.

An overall look at the numbers shows:

A strike rate across all bets of 39.6% (Level with October)

7 out of 12 lay bet tipsters securing more than 80% of those Lays.

The Top three in terms of profit for the month came from each of the three racing codes, which was pleasing when you consider they came from states that held Group 1 races during that calendar month.

Of particular note was the growth of Pros v Bookies, the twice weekly lay betting competition. The assembled crew of tipsters put up 51 lay tips for the month with a pleasing 75% of them successful.

The pick of the Thoroughbred punters was the returning Linton Chataway, who fresh from holiday, hit the ground running in outstanding fashion.

November in NSW was headlined by the Golden Eagle, as well as the Rosehill Gold Cup, and quality cards at Newcastle (The Hunter) and Kembla Grange (The Gong).

Chataway landed a whopping 59% of his bets overall, including 88% of lay bets and turned a profit of 18.02 Units.

This was the second best result of any tipster, behind Harness pair the Carroll’s, and the highest by a thoroughbred expert since May.

“It’s obviously very pleasing to return to good form very quickly,” Chataway said.

‘I think having a break can benefit everyone and it doesn’t need to be just because of a slump in your own betting form – resting the brain at any point even when betting well can be of benefit.” he added.

Not only did Chataway land 88% of lay Bets, his total of 25 lays was the most amongst Thoroughbred tipsters during November.

“The biggest point of difference with lay betting is that you may have a good understanding of a race and you still may have an opinion that there is 3 or 4 winning chances.

“Instead of trying to find the winner out of those 3 or 4 chances you can be against something with confidence and not need to worry about being able to find the winner to still profit in a race.” Chataway said.

As mentioned earlier, the best performed tipsters for the month were Victorian Harness duo Brett and Darren Carroll.

The Carroll’s strike rate was a staggering 67% on all bets, including 90% on lays and 59% on best backs. The 26.31 unit profit was one of the higher monthly levels of the year.

The Breeders Crown and Inter Dominion Heats fired up making the results all the more pleasing, but Brett Carroll spoke about the standard of racing not changing the focus.

“Breeders Crown/Inter Dom don’t usually impact our methods at all really, but I must say we always keep an eye out for horses running in higher class than accustomed to & how they cope with that class rise,” he said.

“Horses seem to benefit from being pushed to a speed/tempo level they probably didn’t realise they had, so when they drop back to their regular ratings races they are usually well worth a bet.”

Carroll also reflected on their 67% strike rate, equating to 2 out of every 3 bets being successful.

“We try to not get too hung up on the prices in early markets. The really hard part is finding a runner that you are confident will win, so let’s just worry about the odds closer to jump time.

“The markets can move for all sorts of reasons & the Betfair product obviously pushes the mkt % down closer to the jump, so we find we can get set at an appealing price most of the time.” He added.

“As far as finding winners, well it’s an inexact science pooling together a lot of information from a range of elements. Not in order & not exhaustive but form, trials, sectionals,  racemaps & driver analysis the basic tools we use.”

Victorian Greyhound expert Michael Tye ranked third with a 9.5 unit profit, which coincided with running of the Bold Trease and Melbourne Cup features at Sandown.

Michael also owned the third best BSP back of the month!

 

 

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