EXPERT RACING TIPS: EPSOM DERBY

Rail: Rail out up to 4.5 yards from 1 mile to the winning post. 14:00 +9 yards (approx) 14:35 +14 yards (approx) 15:10 +14 yards (approx) 15:45 +14 yards (approx) 16:30 +14 yards (approx) 17:10 +12 yards (approx) 17:45 +12 yards (approx)

The Epsom Derby is the toughest test in the world of racing. 2419m of grueling English countryside, uphill, downhill, undulating, with a sharp corner and long straight to the finish. There’s nothing else like it and regardless of your investiture, it’s a spectacle well worth watching.

The week leading up to the two-day event has seen minimal, if any rain and this has led to the track being watered. As a result, the track is more than likely to play into the hands of the leaders and particularly those closest to the fence.

6. KOLSAI
4. MARIE’S DIAMOND
2. HIGHLAND AVENUE
5. REGAL REALITY

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

I was once a massive fan of HIGHLAND AVENUE and followed his carer closely. He’s gone badly off the boil in the last two years, barely doing anything of note and demoted to pacemaking duties. This race on paper would seem an easy kill but he’s got no reason to justify this price.

MARIE’S DIAMOND might use the inside gate and attempt to make all and she’s done that to good effect in the past. She is a big price considering.

KOLSAI has a major 3yo allowance and can take a big step forward here with a G3 win. 11lbs is a big pull and he’s only had four starts with plenty more to come surely. He’ll handle the ground and make use of the weight to full effect.

Betting Strategy

BACK – #4 Marie’s Diamond (WIN) for 1 unit at $13.00

BACK – #6 Kolsai (WIN) for 3.5 units at $4.40

9. PASSENGER
8. MILITARY ORDER
4. AUGUSTE RODIN
13. WAIPIRO

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

Betting Strategy:

The Derby this year jumps as race 2 on account of the FA Cup final clashing with the big race. I expect Coolmore to make this a genuine test and send forward a pacemaker, so it may prove beneficial to be off the pace.

The horse that I think is perhaps the most underrated in this field is PASSENGER. He should have won the Dante but was giving a turgid ride and was never fully extended until far too late. The way he travelled so well throughout is a massive positive and if he gets the trip, he’s a winning chance. They’ve paid the late supplement fee to tackle this and connections could’ve gone for an easier French Derby.

MILITARY ORDER is the full brother to Derby winner Adayar, and he looks just as good if not better at this stage of his career. He seems a bit more professional than his brother and I think he should be the favourite on paper. Importantly he’s handled a surface like this already, whilst others haven’t.

AUGUSTE RODIN has long been touted as the horse for the Derby for Coolmore, but it all went pear-shaped in the Guineas. His stablemate Little Big Bear was in the same boat, finishing tailed off but bolted in next time so there’s every chance he simply had a bad day. I expect a drift and then late money for him. He’s shown he’s got more ability than most of this field previously, and had plenty of stamina as a 2yo.

WAIPIRO is bred to be a Hong Kong type so fast ground suits. He tested Military Order in the Derby trial, and could have enhanced his reputation the start before that if he wasn’t scratched when Marquand was kicked in the arm on the way to the gates. He has good early speed and will lob close to the pace.

BACK: #9 Passenger (WIN) for 1.5 units at $9
BACK: #8 Military Order (WIN) for 2.5 units at $6
BACK: #4 Auguste Rodin (WIN) for 2 units at $5.50

6. SHARAA
4. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
5. ROMAN MIST
3. POTAPOVA

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

I thought SHARAA was unfit first time out and can be forgiven for that run. She likes dry ground and this race suits here, tackling some inconsistent mares who lean towards preferring soft ground.

PROSPEROUS VOYAGE claimed the massive scalp of Inspiral last year but she’s been too up and down for me to have her as a bet. Happy to throw a small dart on the roughie.

Betting Strategy

BACK: #6 Shaara (WIN) for 1 unit at $10.00

13. ESTATE
11. ZUFFOLO
1. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
2. CAN TO CAN

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

The last start winning pair of ESTATE and ZUFFOLO look the two most likely winners on paper to me. They have light weights and are drawn middle to wide which has a good record over this distance. I don’t hold any queries over the ground for them, and DEMOCRACY DILEMMA is drawn on a wing which isn’t ideal with top weight to lump.

CAN TO CAN’s gate speed means they’re likely to cross to the lower drawn side. He’s got some big margin wins when making all and could do so again.

Betting Strategy

BACK: #11 Zuffolo (WIN) for 1 unit at $16.00

BACK: #13 Estate (WIN) for 1.5 units at $7.00

BACK: #2 Can To Can (WIN) for 1 unit at $10.00

13. LIVE IN THE MOMENT
1. SILKY WILKIE
10. VINTAGE CLARETS
15 ANGLE LAND

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

I’d hold fire here and watch the previous race to get a lead on where the best lane to make a run is from.

If it’s all high draws figuring in the finish then press the button on LIVE IN THE MOMENT, VINTAGE CLARETS and ANGLE LAND.

Outside of that, I think SILKY WILKIE will run a bold race as usual.

13. BALANCE PLAY
2. TORITO
10. PERFECT PLAY
11. SILVER SWORD

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

No bets here.

2. CAIUS CHORISTER
5. SCAMPI
3. MAX MAYHEM
7. SHEER ROCKS

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

CAIUS CHORISTER loves this track and loves this surface. Won twice here last season and came back well first up. Gets an ideal gate a looks a definite winning chance here.

SCAMPI stormed over the top of the big field at York and is only up 6 pounds for that win. Likely to be ridden cold and attempt to finish over the top once more.

MAX MAYHEM along with SHEER ROCKS both recorded last-start wins but there isn’t much substance to the form.

Betting Strategy

BACK: #2 Caius Chorister (WIN) for 3 units at $4.00

BACK: #5 Scampi (WIN) for 2 units at $5.00

7. HAYMAKER
2. PROBE
4. MR WAGYU
1. APOLLO ONE

Rory Flanagan’s Predictions

This one is in the too hard basket. No bet.

Epsom racecourse is one of the most famous and historic racecourses in the world, located in Epsom, Surrey, England. The racecourse is home to two of the most iconic races in the horse racing calendar – The Derby and The Oaks. These races have been held at Epsom since the 18th century and have attracted some of the greatest horses, jockeys, and trainers of all time.

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