Liverpool v Stoke

Saturday April 28, 7:30pm AEST

Liverpool put on a spectacle at Anfield in the Champions League midweek but with the tie not dead and buried we can expect squad rotation here. The last two times Klopp rotated they drew with Everton and West Brom, but both of those were away and at home, even if the likes of Salah, Firmino and Mane are rested, they should still have enough about them to beat this struggling Stoke side.

Indeed, the Potters are winless in 11 where they’ve scored just seven times but never more than once in a game. Under Lambert they’ve already lost 3-0 at Arsenal and Man Utd meaning they’ve lost all five of their matches at the Big Six this term by a whopping aggregate score of 23-3. The Reds are unbeaten at Anfield in the league and have made mincemeat of weaker opposition, winning seven of eight unbeaten matches against bottom-half sides, averaging three goals a game in these and only conceding against West Ham. Without their usual firepower though, preference is with a home win to nil rather than on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool win to Nil at 2.20

Burnley v Brighton and Hove Albion

Sunday April 29, 12:00am AEDST

Brighton had the weekend off to prepare for this game and with their last three matches against the current top three, this is perhaps their last opportunity to pick up some points this season. Burnley drew at Stoke, meaning their only defeat in their last eight has come against Chelsea as they’re finishing the season strongly and victory here would all but guarantee them European football next season.

That Clarets’ defeat to Chelsea came at Turf Moor but if we exclude top-six visitors then they’re an impressive W7-D3-L1 in front of their own fans this season with that sole defeat in their opening home game back in August. Again, Sean Dyche’s charges look to have been underestimated in the market as only Stoke have fewer points on the road than Brighton this term with eight of the Seagulls’ 10 away points coming at bottom-six venues.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Burnley win at 2.20

Crystal Palace v Leicester

Sunday April 29, 12:00am AEST

Crystal Palace are slowly but surely furthering themselves from the drop zone and a victory here would more than likely seal their place in the top-flight for another season. Take out fixtures against the Big Six and the Eagles are W7-D10-L1 across their last 18 matches but that tendency to draw puts us off backing them at close to evens. Leicester have been mixed under Claude Puel, as their W9-D8-L8 record suggests, so it looks dangerous playing in the match outcome market in this one.

Of those 18 aforementioned Palace games, eight took place at Selhurst Park and both teams scored in seven, six had at least three goals and Over 3.5 goals landed in four. Like their hosts, the Foxes have had goals a plenty in recent outings, especially on the road where 10 of Puel’s 12 away matches in charge have seen both teams score and nine have had at least three strikes, which looks terrific value here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.78

Huddersfield v Everton

Sunday April 29, 12:00am AEST

Huddersfield’s last gasp winner at home over Watford put them within touching distance of survival as they’re now six points ahead of Southampton in 18th.  With their final three fixtures against Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal, David Wagner will be keen to pick up at least one more point here and it’s at the Kirklees where they’ve been far more effective this season, going W5-D5-L2 excluding visits from the Big Six.

Everton beat Newcastle last time out meaning their only defeat in their last six has come against the champions. They drew at Swansea in their last road game meaning they’re W1-D4-L3 travelling to bottom-half teams this term and the draw has been the most common result in their 17 trips to such opposition since the start of last season – W4-D8-L6. It’s also occurred in six of the Toffees eight trip trips to promoted sides since 2015/16.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.00

Newcastle v West Brom

Sunday April 29, 10:00am AEST

Newcastle went down at Goodison but previously their only defeats in their last 14 came against Man City and Liverpool, and off the back of four straight victories at St James’ Park they remain in good form. Two of those where against Arsenal and Man Utd, but they’ve also been successful against weaker opposition, winning five of seven unbeaten games against the bottom-eight. The worry is now they are safe in 10th place the same commitment may not be shown as before – as shown in their performance at Everton – and so they’re a little skinny at odds-on.

West Brom have improved dramatically under caretaker boss Darren Moore, following up their 1-0 victory at Old Trafford with another morale boosting draw with Liverpool. Strangely, travelling to the teams around them is where the Baggies have faltered this season, picking up all 10 of their away points at top-half sides. They’re clearly playing with more gusto and pride under new management and are in good shape to grab a draw here at a juicy price.

lue in this contest.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.57

Southampton v Bournemouth

Sunday April 29, 12:00am AEST

It’s do-or-die time for Southampton as nothing less than three points will suffice in their bid for survival, but they look to be playing Bournemouth at the right time. The Cherries are really struggling defensively as they’ve kept just one clean sheet in 22 matches, conceding an average of two goals per game. However, seven of their eight defeats in this run have come against top-seven sides and the Saints have won only five times all season so are far too short to back at the prices.

Instead, in-light of Bournemouth’s leaky defence, both teams to score looks the way to go. Eddie Howe’s men have only failed to score against the Big Six in this 22-match run and excluding such teams both sides have netted in their last 14. The same can be said of eight of Southampton’s last 10 at home and they don’t go without their own defensive frailties with just two clean sheets in 16 at St Mary’s, but they’re at least showing more attacking promise under Mark Hughes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to score at 1.80

Swansea v Chelsea

Sunday April 29, 12:30am AEST

Swansea were simply outclassed by the best side in the league last weekend, but it was their fifth game without a win as their form under Carlos Carvalhal has plateaued slightly. Only one of these winless fixtures was at the Liberty though, and they were the dominant team in a 1-1 draw with Everton and previously they’d won their last four here including successes over Liverpool and Arsenal. It means the Swans have scored in seven of their 11 matches hosting the Big Six since the start of last season and they’ll fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet against this less than convincing Chelsea defence.

The Blues have recovered from a mini blip to put themselves back in contention for a top-four spot as well as making it through to the FA Cup final. However, they’ve had to rely on goals rather than clean sheets as their only shut-out in their last 10 was at home to bottom-club West Brom. Both teams have scored in their last five which looks an excellent bet here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score – YES at 2.20

West Ham v Man City

Sunday April 29, 11:15pm AEST

Despite having the title wrapped up, Man City didn’t take any prisoners in thumping Swansea 5-0 at the Etihad as Pep Guardiola now has his sights on breaking Chelsea’s record total of 95 points in a season. They need two wins from their final four fixtures to do so and victories in each would see them reach 100 points– a remarkable achievement. They’ve won seven of eight unbeaten matches travelling to bottom-half teams and have indeed have won 15 of 18 since the start of last season. 10 of these victories were by at least two clear goals and seven were by three or more.

Previously a terrible record hosting the Big Six, West Ham have improved under Moyes – beating Chelsea and drawing with Arsenal – but those two have the worst away records of the top six this term and they may be helpless in the result as the Citizens have enjoyed the space on offer at the London Stadium in the past. Indeed, in their two visits here they’ve won 4-0 and 5-0 and although the Hammers may keep it closer than that now Moyes in charge, we still expect an easy enough win for the champions.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.7

Manchester United v Arsenal

Monday April 30, 1:30am AEST

Man Utd were terrible in their last home game losing 1-0 to West Brom, but Mourinho refocused his troops to beat Spurs in the FA Cup and you can bet he’ll have them primed again as he won’t want to give Wenger the satisfaction of having the final word in their rivalry in what could be their last ever meeting. Indeed, the Portuguese dominates W6-D7-L1 in their Premier League head-to-head record which includes four victories form seven unbeaten matches on home soil.

A combination of this, Arsenal’s poor away form this season and that this game is sandwiched between the Gunners Europa League semi-final legs with Atletico, has culminated in United being as short as 1.5. With Wenger likely to field a weakened side the result looks inevitable so it’s a case of finding a best way to get the hosts onside and it’s worth noting that the last time the Red Devils were this short against the north Londoners they pumped them 8-2.

Arsenal are winless in 16 trips to their top-six rivals as their frail defence has often come under scrutiny with three or more goals featuring in 11 of these. They’ve lost seven of the last eight, conceding at least twice in six of these defeats resulting in the opposition covering the -1 handicap in five. Although not always the most adventurous, three of United’s four matches against the Big Six at Old Trafford this term have had at least three strikes, and so we’re siding with a home win and Over 2.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd Win/Over 2.5 Goals at 2.15

Tottenham v Watford

Tuesay May 1, 5:00am AEST

After losing to Man United in the FA Cup, Spurs’ only remaining target for the season is to finish ahead of Chelsea in 4th. The gap could be at just two points by the time this kicks-off, so we expect Mauricio Pochettino to field a full-strength side which doesn’t bode well for Watford. The Hornets are all but safe but labouring to the season’s end having not won any of their last six and away from home they’re yet to score under Javi Gracia.

Two of those road games for Watford were at Liverpool and Arsenal where they lost by an aggregate of 8-0, continuing their woeful record at the Big Six. Since their promotion they’ve lost 14 of 16 such trips, failing to score in 10 of these and 11 of the defeats by at least a two-goal margin. Prior to Man City winning here, Spurs had won 10 of 12 unbeaten matches at Wembley and seven of these victories where to nil, which once again looks the most likely outcome.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Tottenham to win to nil at 1.80

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