West Brom v Liverpool

Saturday April 21, 9:30pm AEDST

West Brom probably shocked themselves with their 1-0 victory at Old Trafford as they’ve picked up four points in caretaker boss Darren Moore’s two games in charge. Ordinarily we would give them little chance against this Liverpool side that have performed so well travelling to the division’s weaker teams this season, but this looks a good time to be taking on Klopp’s men. The Reds have all but secured a top-four finish and have one of clubs’ biggest games in the last decade coming up in the Champions League on Tuesday.

Between Liverpool’s two quarter-final legs with Man City, Klopp rested the likes of Salah, Firmino, Robertson and Oxlade-Chamberlain for the Merseyside derby and we envisage a similar selection here. That game finished 0-0 and we think the Baggies can definitely keep it close. They’ve not won any of their last six hosting the Big Six, losing five, but four of these defeats were by just a single goal and having played with togetherness and organisation under Moore, the Hawthorns faithful may have something to cheer for.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Brom +0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.29

Watford v Crystal Palace

Sunday April 22, 12:00am AEST

Watford were undone by at late goal at Huddersfield but in truth they were poor as they only mustered four attempts. This was their fourth defeat in five winless matches as their season continues to meander to its end and they now face another club fighting for survival in Crystal Palace. Take out matches against the Big Six and the Eagles are W7-D9-L1 across their last 17 matches with the latest victory against Brighton edging them six points clear of the relegation zone.

Palace have drawn five of eight unbeaten matches travelling to bottom-half opponents this season but we’re leaning towards an away win here as the Hornets ended last season with six straight defeats and it could be a similar set of results this term.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace Win at 2.54

Arsenal v West Ham

Sunday April 22, 10:30pm AEST

For all their shortcomings on the road, Arsenal remain one of the most dependable sides on home soil. Excluding visits from the Big Six they have a 100% record from 12 matches at the Emirates this season, so at 1.55 we would advise adding the Gunners to any acca’s this weekend. For a bit more value though, we’re siding with a home win and Over 2.5 Goals as of their victories versus non-top six sides, nine have had at least three strikes but four of these nine were without conceding so it covers 3-0 or better as well.

Moreover, West Ham’s away form also suggests we’re likely to have goals as they’ve scored in nine consecutive road games including trips to Man City, Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea. Eight of their 11 away matches under Moyes have had at least three goals as have eight of the club’s 11 trips to the Big Six since the start of last season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal Win/Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05

Stoke v Burnley

Sunday April 22, 10:30pm AEST

Andy Carroll’s late equaliser took Stoke closer to relegation and they’re now winless in 10 games, so it’s little surprising to see them as short as they are against seventh placed Burnley. In their first game on their own patch this season the Potters beat Arsenal – who have subsequently travelled woefully all season – but since then their only successes have come over bottom-six sides and if we exclude such teams then they’ve lost eight of 12 winless matches here including defeats against mid-table clubs Everton, Newcastle, West Ham and Bournemouth.

Prior to facing Chelsea on Thursday, victory over Leicester was Burnley’s fifth in a row and they’ll even be eyeing up the Gunners who are just two points above them in sixth. The fact that Stoke are still fighting for Premier League survival has been factored into the price, but the Clarets are showing no signs of slowing up with their run of victories and therefore represent the value in this contest.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.47

Man City v Swansea

Sunday April 23, 1:30am AEST

West Brom’s victory at Old Trafford confirmed what we already knew – that Man City would end the season as champions. Swansea could be the side that benefits from this as without needing a victory to confirm their Premier league title, Guardiola’s men may not strain every sinew in this match. Although they will play in a similar manner, dominating possession and creating more of the chances, many of the City players have a World Cup to look forward to in the summer and won’t want to risk injury.

With all this in mind, the best way to approach this game is backing Swansea on the handicap. The Welsh club are still in a fight for survival so we can expect maximum effort form them. They’ve lost only three of Carlos Carvalhal’s 13 league games in charge with two of those against Man Utd and Spurs – both finishing 2-0. Travelling to the Big Six, the Swans have lost by more than a two-goal margin in just two of 17 trips since 2015/16, losing 2-1 in their last three visits to the Etihad.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Swansea +2.5 Asian Handicap at 2.04

Everton v Newcastle

Sunday April 24, 5:00am AEST

Both these teams sit safely inside the top-10 and away from any relegation battle but it’s Newcastle who arrive in much the better form. The visitors have won their last four – the last two against sides above Everton in the table – whilst in their last 14 the Magpies only lost to Liverpool and Man City twice.

Although the Toffees are usually a pretty dependable side at Goodison when we don’t include visits form the division’s top six, there is a growing sense of discomfort from the fans towards Sam Allardyce as they’re unhappy with his style of play. Therefore, preference is to get Newcastle onside, particularly as if we exclude Big Six opponents, they’re unbeaten in six away games.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle 0 Asian Handicap at 2.38

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