Everton v Liverpool

Saturday April 7, 9:30pm AEDST

Everton were left chasing shadows as they were utterly dominated by Man City and the Goodison crowd was subdued as their side showed little urgency, but the players and fans should be far more revved up for the visit of their Merseyside neighbours. They’ve had little to shout about in the derby in recent times though, not beating Liverpool in the league since 2010/11, drawing four of six at home since.

The Reds continued their impressive set of away results with victory at Palace, although not in the most convincing style. Nevertheless, they’re W9-D2-L1 this season when excluding trips to the Big Six, but Jurgen Klopp will have to contend with crucial Champions League quarter-final games with Man City either side of this, so they may be vulnerable. We would back a draw, but Everton have lost four of five winless home games against the Big Six this term, so instead as the Toffees got to the interval unscathed in three off these we’ll back them to hold their superior neighbours out until then.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – HT Draw at 2.18

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace

Sunday April 8, 12:00am AEST

Bournemouth snatched a last-minute equaliser at Watford and it means they’ve lost just two of their last 13 matches. That doesn’t bode well for a Palace side that are desperate for three points and sit just two points above the relegation zone. They won their last away match at Huddersfield but if we exclude the current bottom-six then the Eagles are W1-D2-L9 on the road this term.

With just one clean sheet in 19, Bournemouth’s rear-guard is still a major issue for Eddie Howe but his side are perfectly capable going forward and they’ve won four of their last six at home, despite conceding in each. Since the start of last season, they’ve won seven of 10 hosting bottom-six clubs, and so the Cherries look a generous price.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Bournemouth Win at 2.46

Brighton v Huddersfield

Sunday April 8, 12:00am AEST

Brighton spurned an opportunity to strengthen their survival bid as Glenn Murray missed a penalty before Leicester scored two late goals in their last match. However, they have a fantastic opportunity to make amends with strugglers Huddersfield coming to the Falmer Stadium. The Terriers have lost seven of their last 10, the latest a 1-0 defeat at Newcastle where they failed to register a shot on target, and it means they’ve lost 11 of their last 15 road games, failing to score in any of the defeats.

The loss against the Foxes was only Brighton’s fourth at home this season with the other three against Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City. They’re W5-D3-L0 hosting bottom-half clubs and welcoming one of the division’s worst travellers, they should have no problem securing another three points.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Brighton Win at 1.84

Leicester v Newcastle

Sunday April 8, 12:00am AEST

Leicester have won their last two, both on the road, and return to the King Power having drawn their last three here 1-1 against Bournemouth, Stoke and Swansea. In the case of the latter two they struggled to breakdown defence-minded opposition as they’re unable to play in their preferred counter-attacking style. A stubborn Newcastle side will pose similar questions of Claude Puel’s men and the visitors are playing with confidence after their victory over Huddersfield gave them real hope of guaranteeing Premier League football next season.

Indeed, the Magpies are W5-D5-L3 across their last 13 with the three defeats in this spell coming against Liverpool and Man City twice. However, the Foxes don’t lose many at home, tasting defeat in just three of 34 matches since the start of 2015/16 when excluding Big Six opposition. Therefore, anything Newcastle get form the game is likely to be a draw.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Draw at 3.47

Stoke v Tottenham

Sunday April 8, 12:00am AEST

Spurs tightened their grip on a top-four spot as they beat their closest pursuers Chelsea in what was their first victory at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League era. They have an eight-point buffer over their London rivals now and they should at least maintain that with a trip to relegation-threatened Stoke. The Potters have won just one of Paul Lambert’s 10 games in charge, losing all three with top-six opposition without finding the net.

In fact, the 19th placed club have lost their last eight against such opposition, conceding at least three times in seven of these. Although they held out at Arsenal until the 75th minute most recently it was disappointing how they caved in after that and they’re unlikely to lay a glove on this in-form Spurs side who have scored 17 goals in the last four meetings between the two.

Since losing to Man City in December, Mauricio Pochettino’s charges have won 10 of 13 unbeaten matches and excluding trips to the Big Six they’ve won eight of 11 away matches this term, with six of these victories by at least a two-goal margin. Spurs on the handicap is the smart play here, especially as Stoke are without the injured Kurt Zouma and in his absence they’ve lost all four games this season, conceding an average of 3.8 goals per game.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Spurs -1.75 Asian Handicap at 2.28

Watford v Burnley

Sunday April 8, 12:00am AEST

After an 11-match winless run, Burnley have won their last three to tighten their grip on seventh place and a chance of European football next season. They’re offering more of threat going forward with both their strikers, Barnes and Wood bang in-form and they’ll fancy their chances of causing a Watford defence that has conceded 10 in their last three a few problems.

The Hornets almost made it four consecutive home victories under Gracia only to concede a late equaliser against Bournemouth. However, their previous two victories were less than convincing ones over Everton and West Brom and they’ll find it much tougher against this stubborn Burnley outfit. Indeed, the Clarets have lost just four of their 16 away matches this season and should get something out of the game.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Burnley 0 Asian Handicap at 2.4

West Brom v Swansea

Sunday April 8, 12:00am AEST

West Brom finally parted ways with Alan Pardew after just one victory in 18 and a run of eight consecutive defeats, but it all looks too little too late as they’re 10 points from safety. As a result, it’s somewhat surprising to see them priced up as such clear favourites against a Swansea side that have lost only three of 11 matches under manger Carlos Carvalhal, two of which were against Man Utd and Spurs.

The Baggies have conceded 11 in their last four at the Hawthorns despite not hosting any of the Big Six and even losing to relegation rivals Huddersfield and Southampton. They should offer plenty of chances up to this resurgent Swans side, who certainly represent the value.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Swansea Win at 3.14

Manchester City v Manchester United

Sunday April 8, 2:30am AEST

Victory at Goodison in another dominant performance means Man City can wrap up the Premier League title in the sweetest of circumstances – the Manchester Derby. Jose Mourinho will do his best to spoil the party, but a W1-D3-L5 record travelling to Big Six opposition since arriving at Old Trafford suggests he is unlikely to delay the inevitable. Indeed, Man Utd failed to score in seven of these trips and they’re unlikely to be able hold this City juggernaut to a goalless draw after just two clean sheets in 11 away matches against less superior opposition.

After a 1-1 draw with 10-men against Everton in their opening home match, City have won 14 on the bounce at the Etihad. They’ve averaged 3.6 goals per games across these victories and Guardiola’s chargers have really upped their game when their top-six rivals have visited, winning by an aggregate score of 13-2 in four such encounters and dominating possession in each. They have testing Champions League ties with Liverpool either side of this derby, but such is the strength in depth of this City squad we don’t think it will affect the outcome.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man City Win at 1.8

Manchester City v Manchester United

Sunday April 8, 2:30am AEST

Victory at Goodison in another dominant performance means Man City can wrap up the Premier League title in the sweetest of circumstances – the Manchester Derby. Jose Mourinho will do his best to spoil the party, but a W1-D3-L5 record travelling to Big Six opposition since arriving at Old Trafford suggests he is unlikely to delay the inevitable. Indeed, Man Utd failed to score in seven of these trips and they’re unlikely to be able hold this City juggernaut to a goalless draw after just two clean sheets in 11 away matches against less superior opposition.

After a 1-1 draw with 10-men against Everton in their opening home match, City have won 14 on the bounce at the Etihad. They’ve averaged 3.6 goals per games across these victories and Guardiola’s chargers have really upped their game when their top-six rivals have visited, winning by an aggregate score of 13-2 in four such encounters and dominating possession in each. They have testing Champions League ties with Liverpool either side of this derby, but such is the strength in depth of this City squad we don’t think it will affect the outcome.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man City Win at 1.8

Chelsea v West Ham United

Sunday April 9, 12:00am AEST

Chelsea’s top-four hopes have been severely damaged in the last month or so as they’ve lost five of their last seven and find themselves eight points adrift of Spurs in fourth. At home they were imperious in Antonio Conte’s debut season, winning 17 of 19, but this term they’re W10-D2-L4 thus far which includes a draw with Leicester and defeats against Burnley and Bournemouth. In their last five they’ve only beaten Championship-bound West Brom (3-0) and Palace narrowly 2-1, so a resurgent West Ham won’t make the trip across London in fear.

David Moyes looks to be steering the Hammers to safety and during his time at the club they’ve performed well against the Big Six. They’ve only lost to Liverpool and Man City, the latter a narrow 2-1 defeat at the Etihad, whilst they’ve drawn at Spurs, held Arsenal at home and beaten Chelsea themselves at the London Stadium. While they may not win, the visitors are certainly the value on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – West Ham +1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.13


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