Crystal Palace v Liverpool

Saturday March 31, 10:30pm AEDST

Prior to the international break, Palace recorded a timely victory to make a decisive move out of the drop zone and it was no coincidence that Wilfried Zaha was back in the side. The Eagles have lost all 10 games the Ivorian has failed to start this season, averaging just 0.4 goals per game compared to 1.3 gpg in the 21 he’s started as Man City are the only side to shut them out in the last 12 of these.

However, Palace must now find away of stopping Liverpool’s very own talisman, Mo Salah, who put on a masterclass to score four times against Watford. Exclude trips to the Big Six and the Reds are an impressive W8-D2-L1 this season where they’ve netted 30 times. Jurgen Klopp’s defence remains less reliable though as they kept only four clean sheets across these away matches, while in their last four trips to Selhurst Park Liverpool have shipped nine goals.

Roy Hodgson’s first game in charge was a 1-0 home defeat to Southampton but since then only Man City and Spurs have shut them out at Selhurst Park as both teams have scored in nine of the 12 games as his side managed to score twice against Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.75

Brighton v Leicester

Sunday Arpil 1, 1:00am AEDST

Brighton are six points away from the elusive 40-point mark and with Spurs and Man Utd the final two visitors to the Falmers this season, the next two against Leicester and Huddersfield are key in their survival bid. Chris Hughton’s men have been impressive in front of their own fans to date, only losing to Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City and beating Arsenal most recently as part of a three-match winning streak.

Leicester ended a five-match winless run at Championship-bound West Brom when last seen in the league. They drew at home with the likes of Stoke and Swansea during this period, while on the road they’d lost four of five winless games before their success at the Hawthorns. Puel’s men were also knocked out of the FA Cup and as they’re safely up in 8th in the standings, the Foxes have little else to play for this season and could be vulnerable in the run-in. With this in mind, we’ll back the Seagulls who will have targeted this as one of their best chances for maximum points for the remainder of the season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brighton Win at 2.84

Man Utd v Swansea

Sunday April 1, 1:00am AEDST

With just eight games remaining of the season Man Utd’s goal in the Premier League is to finish best of the rest behind their city neighbours and they currently hold a two-point advantage over Liverpool in 3rd with a game in hand. For Swansea, it’s all about survival and since Carlos Carvalhal came in they’ve gone from rock-bottom to 14th and three points ahead of the drop zone.

The Swans look up against it here though as they’re without their suspended top-scorer Jordan Ayew and without him they gave Spurs little to worry about in their 3-0 defeat in the FA Cup. They’ve drawn three and lost one of their last four away matches but none were at a team higher than 8th and they only netted three times across these. Moreover, they’ve scored just once in their four trips to the Big Six this term and things are unlikely to turnaround against the club with the best defensive home record in the league.

Indeed, United have conceded only seven times at Old Trafford this season, four of which came from fellow Big Six opposition. Hosting bottom-half clubs they’ve won six of seven unbeaten matches with five of these victories to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd Win to Nil at 1.75

Newcastle v Huddersfield

Sunday April 1, 1:00am AEDST

Newcastle beat a woeful Southampton side 3-0 when last seen, a result that saw the Saints sack their manager. The Magpies are now unbeaten in five on home soil but despite those three goals, they’re the lowest scorers on home turf other than Burnley. Defensively, they’re very solid though as only six clubs have conceded fewer in front of their own fans and Benitez will know that if his side can get ahead in this game then their opponents will struggle to find a way back.

Indeed, after conceding first Huddersfield have lost 15 of 16 winless matches this term where they’ve managed to score only three times themselves. They’ve netted just 10 times on their travels all season but have actually scored in the fewest individual matches as nine of these goals came in their three victories. Newcastle have won all four of their home games against the current bottom six and we fancy them to claim maximum points again, but as all 10 of the Terriers away losses have been to nil there is greater value in that market.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle Win to Nil at 2.8

Watford v Bournemouth

Sunday April 1, 1:00am AEDST

Watford have taken some hefty beatings against superior opposition on the road of late but under Javi Gracia they’ve won all three of their home matches. This included a 4-1 victory over Chelsea, although three of the four goals came in the final five minutes against 10 men as they’ve netted just twice in the Spaniard’s remaining six games – in less than memorable 1-0 victories over West Brom and Everton.

Bournemouth’s only success in their last nine on the road was an unlikely one at Stamford Bridge, but of their three defeats in this run, two came against the Manchester clubs. In fact, outside the Big-Six, they’re W2-D5-L3 on their travels and with the Hornets not playing all that excitingly, the draw looks the most likely outcome. Indeed, these two are equal on 36 points apiece and it’s difficult to separate them, whilst they’ve shared the spoils in four of their five league meetings.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.38

West Brom v Burnley

Sunday April 1, 1:00am AEDST

West Brom have lost seven in a row with their fate as a Championship side next season all but sealed. They’re a woeful W1-D5-L11 under Alan Pardew and so we’re a surprised to see them priced up as favourites in this clash. Burnley are one of the division’s most organised sides and as we witnessed in their victory at West Ham recently, Sean Dyche isn’t going to allow his side to rest on their laurels now they’ve reached the 40 point mark.

The Clarets are flying high in 7th and have lost only four of 15 road games this season. However, prior to their success at the London Stadium they’d not won in seven away matches with four of these ending all-square. The Baggies need to be taken on at the prices but given Burnley’s strong draw tendency, we’ll side with the visitors on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Burnley 0 Asian Handicap at 2.08

West Ham v Southampton

Sunday April 1, 1:00am AEDST

A huge game in the context of the relegation battle as 18th placed Southampton visit 17th placed West Ham. There were ugly scenes in the last encounter at the London Stadium as the fans invaded the pitch in the second half with their side on their way to a third consecutive defeat. Although it’s only their second home defeat under David Moyes (W3-D4-L2) we’re happy to avoid them in the match outcome market given the current mood surrounding the club.

Southampton are hardly making a strong case though, with their only success in 17 league matches against rock-bottom West Brom. Mark Hughes has a major job on his hands, but fans can at least look forward to this match with a bit more optimism after calling for Mauricio Pellegrino’s job and getting through to an FA Cup semi -final in Sparky’s first game in charge.

The Saints will know that if they can nick a goal then the crowd will again turn, but the issue is where this goal is going to come from. They’ve netted just once on their last four and although top-scorer Charlie Austin is available again there are question marks over whether he’ll be match sharp. The Hammers are hardly playing free-flowing football and have failed to score more than once in six of their last seven, whilst six of their nine home games under Moyes have had fewer than three goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.7

Everton v Man City

Sunday April 1, 2:30am AEDST

Everton stunned Man City 4-0 in this fixture last season but they’re a 500/1 shot to repeat such a scoreline as they remain an uninspiring team under Sam Allardyce. Their home record of W9-D2-L4 looks good on paper but they’ve lost three of four winless matches hosting the Big Six where they’ve drawn a blank three times shipped 10 goals.

After a run where they picked up just two points from trips to Palace, Liverpool and Burnley, the Citizens have since won convincingly at Arsenal and Stoke with five unanswered goals. They’ve scored at least twice in 11 of their 15 away matches and so we fancy them -2.0 on the Asian Handicap in this one. Indeed, the Toffees have key injuries and suspensions to the spine of their side with Ashley Williams, Idrissa Gueye and Gylfi Sigurdsson all unavailable, whilst each of their seven defeats to Big Six opposition this term have been by at least a two-goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.88

Arsenal v Stoke

Sunday April 1, 10:30pm AEDST

Stoke suffered a major blow in their relegation fight in losing at home to Everton as they face Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool in their next five. They start with a trip to the Emirates where the Gunners have brushed aside weaker opposition with ease this season. Excluding the top-six, Arsene Wenger’s side have won all 10 encounters at the Emirates with six of these to nil, eight by at least a two-goal margin and six by three or more.

The Potters have netted just six times in Paul Lambert’s eight games in charge and to rub salt in the wound their best player and top scorer Xherdan Shaqiri is injured. They’ve been trounced in visits to the Big Six this term, losing all four encounters by an aggregate score of 20-3. Going back further, they’ve lost 12 of 16 winless trips since the start of 2015/16 with all 12 defeats by at least a two-goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.6

Chelsea v Tottenham

Sunday April 2, 1:00am AEDST

This is a must-win game for Chelsea if they are to have hopes of qualifying for the Champions League next year and they’ll be buoyed by a Spurs side visiting without Harry Kane. The Lilywhites have coped in the last couple of games without their star man and they’ve actually won five of the last six he’s missed but all the victories were against much inferior opposition and the sole defeat came in a trip to Old Trafford where they were very lackadaisical.

Chelsea have won nine of their last 11 at Stamford Bridge and the only Big Six side to score here this term are Man City as they beat Man Utd 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Arsenal. Their overall home record under Conte against the top six reads W5-D1-L2 and with Spurs’ away record in such encounters poor, the Blues certainly look the value. Under Mauricio Pochettino, the north Londoners are W1-D7-L11 travelling to the Big Six, while they still haven’t won at the Bridge in the Premier League era (D9-L16).

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 2.35

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