Bournemouth v West Brom

Sunday March 18, 2:00am AEDST

West Brom took the lead against Leicester but their dire run continued as they eventually went down 4-1. That was their sixth defeat on the bounce, failing to score in half of these and conceding at least three times in four. Bournemouth were also beaten 4-1 last time out but they face a simpler assignment here and if we ignore top-five opponents, they’ve lost just one of their last 10 at home (W5-D4-L1), whilst going back to last season they’ve won five of seven unbeaten games when hosting bottom-six sides.

West Brom have lost 10 of their last 15 road trips and whilst they’ve failed to score in their last three on their travels, prior to that they’d managed to net at Everton, West Ham and Stoke. Bournemouth certainly give their opponents a chance as they’re without a clean sheet in nine at Dean Court, with their three wins in that time all despite conceding. With that in mind, we wouldn’t put anyone off the home win and both teams to score, with the 2-1 correct score certainly of interest as the Cherries have netted exactly twice in four of their last five on their own turf, but the hosts look a big price in the win market so we’ll stick with that.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bournemouth Win at 1.92

Huddersfield v Crystal Palace

Sunday March 18, 2:00am AEDST

Despite Swansea being reduced to 10 men after only 11 minutes and having no shots on goal, Huddersfield had to settle for a draw last time out as none of their 30 attempts found the target. Palace slumped to their fourth straight defeat as they went down to Chelsea and as a result they’ve dropped back down into the relegation zone for the first time this year. However, they were boosted by the return of Wilfried Zaha in the second half at Stamford Bridge and found the net as he provided the assist. They’ve lost all 10 games the Ivorian has missed this term but they’ve drawn nine of their last 17 with him in the team, and they’ve also drawn six of their last seven against bottom-half opponents.

We expect this to be a cagey affair and that’ll certainly bring the stalemate into play. Six of Huddersfield’s eight home matches against bottom-half opponents have had Under 2.5 Goals, whist Palace have netted just 10 goals in their 15 road games this term and more than once on just two occasions. As a result, Under 2.5 Goals and the stalemate are our standout selections.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.2

Stoke v Everton

Sunday March 18, 2:00am AEDST

Everton eased to victory over Brighton and so they’re back into the top half but they’ve struggled on their travels as they’ve lost five straight on the road, whilst they haven’t scored more than once in any of their last nine away from Goodison Park. They’ve drawn four of their last six at bottom-six teams, and since Stoke are also without a win in six while it’s ended all square in seven of their last 10 at home to middle-third teams, it’s the stalemate we like again here.

It’s been the most common result under Paul Lambert (W1-D4-L3) as he’s set them up to be tough to beat, but they’ve been far from prolific in front of goal as they’ve netted just five times since he took over. As a result it’s unsurprising that there’s been a strong ‘unders’ trend in recent Stoke games as their last five at the Britannia have seen Under 2.5 Goals.

Sam Allardyce has instilled some defensive steel into Everton too as they’ve conceded more than once in just one of their last nine against bottom-half opponents, with five of the last eight of these featuring Under 2.5 Goals. As with the Huddersfield v Palace game, Under 2.5 Goals and the draw are the plays.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.3

Liverpool v Watford

Sunday March 18, 4:30am AEDST

Liverpool suffered their first defeat in eight across all competitions as they went down at Old Trafford, but they’re unbeaten at Anfield in the league where they’ve won five of their last six. It’s been entertaining viewing for the home faithful as four of these saw more than three goals. Part of the reason for that is that Liverpool aren’t the most secure defensively as they’ve conceded seven times across these games.

Watford are fairly shaky at the back themselves as they’ve kept only five clean sheets in their last 26, with only West Ham and Stoke worse defensively this season. They’ve conceded at least four times in four of their nine trips to top-six opponents since the start of last season, whilst they’ve conceded at least three times in six of their nine such fixtures at all venues this term. They do generally tend to get on the scoresheet though as they’ve found the net in seven of those nine games, and when these two meet there’s generally plenty of goals as the Hornets were beaten 6-1 here last term, whilst they played out a 3-3 thriller at Vicarage Road earlier in the season so we’re backing Over 3.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.24


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