Man United v Liverpool

Saturday March 10, 11:30pm AEDST

Since taking the reins at Old Trafford, Jose Mourinho has specialised in restricting Jurgen Klopp’s free-flowing Liverpool as his side have shown little ambition in winning with a 1-1 draw and two goalless stalemates to date. It’s unlikely that the Portuguese will change his tactics here as the Red Devils currently hold a slender lead over their rivals in the standings, so his number one priority will be to avoid defeat.

However, that’s going to be difficult against a Liverpool side with their tails up having won eight of their last 10 and scoring at least twice in nine of these fixtures. They have a decent W4-D5-L2 record travelling to the Big Six under their German manager, but they’ve not won any of their last five (D3-L2), conceding 12 times in three trips this season, though much of the damage was done in visits to the more attack-minded Spurs and Man City.

Mourinho’s United are W4-D4-L2 hosting the same opposition since his arrival and none of these games have featured more than three goals with Under 2.5 Goals landing in five. Both defeats were inflicted by their city neighbours and in fact Guardiola’s team are the only one in the division to win at Old Trafford since the start of last season. As a result the draw certainly appeals the most here and has landed in half of Klopp’s 26 meetings against top-six opposition at all venues during his time in England.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.28

Everton v Brighton

Sunday March 11, 2:00am AEDST

Arsenal’s top-four hopes are fading with each match with a 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth being the latest blow to leave them eight points adrift of Chelsea in 4th. Most of their problems have come on the road and if we exclude the current top four then they’ve won their remaining eight games at the Emirates this season. However, with Sanchez set to leave the club and key players Ozil and Koscielny doubts, there will be a sour atmosphere surrounding the Emirates and so an improving Palace will fancy their chances.

Roy Hodgson has a growing injury list to deal with but he’s still getting the best out of his side with victory over Burnley the latest in an incredible turnaround that has seem then go from winless and bottom to 12th and five points clear of the drop zone. They’ve lost just one of their last 12 – narrowly to Arsenal – but the Gunners were inspired by a Sanchez brace that day and in their last 11 without the Chilean starting they’ve gone a woeful W3-D3-L5. With this in mind, we’ll lay Arsenal in this one..

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.3

Huddersfield v Swansea

Sunday March 11, 2:00am AEDST

As expected Huddersfield lost at Spurs but their place in the top-flight is more likely to be decided in their next three home games against Swansea, Palace and Watford rather than that result at Wembley. Swansea increased their chances of survival with an impressive 4-1 victory over West Ham at home and with both these sides level on points, and three above the relegation zone, it’s a fixture with plenty on the line.

Although the Terriers put four past Bournemouth in their last home match they’ve created the fewest chances in front of their own fans out of any club in the division. The same can be said for the Swans on the road who have netted just eight in their last 12 away from the Liberty.

The Terriers have a decent W4-D4-L1 record at the Kirklees when excluding Big Six visitors but seven of these games had fewer than three goals while four have no more than one. With Aaron Mooey still a doubt and January signing Alex Pritchard injured they certainly look to be lacking a creative spark and so with plenty at stake it could be a low-scoring affair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 1.5 Goals at 2.62

Newcastle v Southampton

Sunday March 11, 2:00am AEDST

Another huge game in the context of the relegation battle as 16th placed Newcastle host 17th placed Southampton and they’re just two points and one point above the bottom three respectively. The Magpies’ only three defeats in their last 11 have been against Man City (twice) and Liverpool as they’ve drawn five of the remaining eight games including three of four at home. Their fixtures at St James’ Park haven’t been the most exciting with nine of their last 11 seeing fewer than three goals of which six had no more than one strike and the visit of Southampton is unlikely to alter this trend.

The Saints are setting up to not lose matches rather than go out and win them which could cost them their place in the top division come May. This was best illustrated in their latest stalemate at home to Stoke and despite losing just one of their last seven, five of these games have finished all-square. Going back further, Pellegrino’s side have only beaten West Brom in their 16 but have ended up drawing nine of these games, while on the road their record this season is W2-D5-L1 when we take out visits to the top six.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.25

West Brom v Leicester

Sunday March 11, 2:00am AEDST

Leicester held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw last time out at Stamford Bridge which they were made to earn after being reduced to 10 men for the final 20 minutes. Watford also managed to salvage a very fortunate draw with a ‘Hand of God’ goal from in-form Doucoure in the dying minutes of the game against a struggling Southampton side.

On the road however, Watford have lost six out of their last seven games with the one win in this run against bottom-six side Newcastle. Their defence has let them down recently as they’ve conceded 22 goals in their last 10 at all venues which doesn’t look like stopping with the Foxes scoring at least two goals in five of their last seven games against middle-third opposition.

Moreover, Marco Silva’s side have been plagued by injuries more than any other Premier League club and of the nine currently sidelined, the most notable is Tom Cleverly, without whom they’re yet to win a game since he arrived last January.

When at the King Power, Leicester are generally a good side to keep onside. If we exclude the ‘Big Six’ then they’ve won 69% of their home matches since 2015/16, making them excellent value in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester Win at 2.58

West Ham v Burnley

Sunday March 11, 2:00am AEDST

Burnley ended a run of 11 games without a win last time out and while that victory over Everton took them to the precious 40-point mark, Sean Dyche isn’t the type of manager to allow his squad to have one eye on their summer holiday destinations. They’re winless in seven on the road (D4-L3) where they’ve scored just three times despite travelling to Brighton, Huddersfield, Palace, Newcastle and Swansea in this time. A solid rear guard has meant six of these matches saw fewer than three strikes and five had no more than one, so again we expect the same kind of organisation despite their almost guaranteed safety.

West Ham enter this clash on the back of consecutive 4-1 defeats on the road but at home they’ve been a lot tighter under David Moyes, only once conceding more than a single goal in his eight games in charge at the London Stadium, which is also their only defeat. Under 2.5 Goals landed in six of those games which looks banker material in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.63

Chelsea v Crystal Palace

Sunday March 11, 4:30am AEDST

It’s been a dramatic improvement for West Ham under David Moyes as they’ve gone W4-D3-L1 over their last eight, even going unbeaten against the three Big Six clubs they’ve played in this run. They’ve netted 15 times in their last six as the Scotsman seems to have got the best of their most talented attackers – Arnautovic and Lanzini. However, the Hammers are still conceding with both teams scoring in each of these games, resulting in four featuring at least three goals.

Bournemouth have also experienced an upturn in form with eight points and nine goals in their last four and if we exclude top-seven opposition then they’re unbeaten in 10. Like their hosts, the Cherries have defensive issues to deal with as they’re without a clean sheet in 10, conceding an average of 2.1 goals a game across these. Nine of these saw three or more strikes and so given both sides’ defensive frailties and in-form attacks, Over 2.5 Goals looks a generous price – a bet that has landed in four of the five Premier League meetings between the two.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Palace +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.98

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