Burnley v Everton

Saturday March 3, 11:30pm AEDST

Burnley’s 11 match winless streak looked to be coming to an end at home to Southampton last time out only for the Saints to equalise in the 90th minute. Of the five games in this run to take place at Turf Moor that was the first not against Big Six opposition and if we exclude such sides then they’re W5-D3-L1 this term and an even more impressive W14-D5-L3 stretching back to the start of last season.

After a decent start to life under Allardyce, Everton seem to have regressed with their away form especially pitiful, culminating in a 1-0 defeat at Watford last weekend in a dire performance. They’ve won just once on the road all season, losing eight of 14 trips including their last four in a row. In fact, when we take out bottom-six teams the Toffees are W3-D7-L13 on their travels since 2016/17, and so we think Burnley look excellent value for their first win of 2018.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Burnley Win at 2.6

Leicester v Bournemouth

Sunday March 4, 2:00am AEDST

Leicester were frustrated but fortunate to draw at home against Stoke as they only equalised after a horror mistake by Jack Butland, but by avoiding defeat it means the Foxes have lost just three times at the King Power since 2015/16 when we take out Big Six visitors. However, they’ve failed to impress in consecutive stalemates with bottom-three sides Stoke and Swansea, so we’re unwilling to back them at odds-on against a more dangerous Bournemouth side.

Bournemouth showed their resilience again as they came back from a two-goal deficit with 10 minutes to go against Newcastle and it means only Palace have secured more points than the Cherries this season after conceding first. Nevertheless, Eddie Howe will be disappointed not to have taken three points on home soil against the Magpies as his leaky defence is becoming more of a worry with just one clean sheet in their last 15, but with the threat they carry going forward 12 of these saw at least three goals.

Indeed, only Liverpool and the Manchester clubs prevented Bournemouth from netting in this run and outside of the top-six these two clubs have scored more times than any other in the division over the last 20 games. Leicester have kept just three clean sheets in their last 13 and when conceding 15 of their 21 home games since the start of last season have had at least three strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.73

Southampton v Stoke

Sunday March 4, 2:00am AEDST

Both these sides registered 1-1 draws when last seen with Southampton doing so with a last-minute equaliser while a goalkeeping error cost Stoke what could have been a massive three points at Leicester. It means they are still only separated by a single point and given the tight nature of the bottom-half this has relegation six-pointer written all over it.

Immediately for a side that have won just seven times in all competitions this season – three over West Brom and one against a Championship side – the Saints look too short at odds-on. At St Mary’s they’re winless in seven in the league but with just one defeat in their last six at all venues, Pellegrino has made them a difficult side to beat. Stoke have won only once on their travels this term but are W1-D4-L5 when we ignore the Big Six and so we’d have Southampton at around the even money mark, not the price they are now.

The draw certainly makes the most appeal in the match outcome market but given both these sides have been hindered by a lack of goals this season, Under 2.5 Goals is a stand-out selection. 14 of Southampton’s last 19 home games have had fewer than three strikes while excluding trips to the Big Six, 11 of Stoke’s last 16 away games have also settled in the ‘unders’ market. With Charlie Austin injured, the Saints next top-scorer is the out-of-favour Gabbiadini on four, while the Potters tend to rely on a piece of magic from their Swiss star Xherdan Shaqiri.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.83

Swansea v West Ham

Sunday March 4, 2:00am AEDST

Swansea’s 10 match unbeaten run ended abruptly in a 4-1 defeat at Brighton and they find themselves back in the relegation zone as a result in a tightly congested bottom-half. West Ham lost by the same margin in a tougher game at Anfield but despite being five places ahead of their hosts their advantage is just three points.

Both teams have scored in each of the Hammers’ last 10 but they’ve not been goal-fests as five of the last seven have had exactly two strikes with one of the exceptions the trip to free-scoring Liverpool. The Swans have scored in six in a row but registered just a solitary strike in five of these and at the Liberty their games tend to be tight with nine of 14 this term having fewer than three goals which turns into seven from nine when we exclude the Big Six.

In a game of fine margins it could be decided by a moment of quality, something West Ham’s Marko Arnautovic certainly has in his locker. He’s been a revelation under David Moyes and before Liverpool broke the deadlock he caused them all sorts of trouble and only the crossbar denied him a goal. Despite not scoring there he still has seven in his last 10 starts (five from seven against bottom-half clubs) and with his partner in crime Lanzini fit again the Austrian looks the likeliest person to get on the scoresheet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arnautovic Anytime Goalscorer at 3.55

Tottenham v Huddersfield

Sunday March 4, 2:00am AEDST

Spurs left it late but deserved their victory at Crystal Palace and it means their only defeat in their last 14 has come against Man City as they’ve won nine of these games. At Wembley they’re unbeaten since their opening fixture with Chelsea, winning nine of their last 11 where they’ve conceded just six times. Huddersfield have registered back-to-back victories for the first time since the opening two games of the campaign, but Spurs are a major step up in class and they’ve struggled against the big boys thus far.

Indeed, the Terriers have lost seven of eight matches with the top-six this term, going down by an aggregate score of 10-0 in the three road matches. They conceded just one first-half goal in these three away games and while they could frustrate Pochettino’s men, who will have one eye on Juventus on Wednesday, in the end it seems likely to be a routine victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win to Nil at 1.75

Watford v West Brom

Sunday March 4, 2:00am AEDST


Watford have won two of their last three and with players from their lengthy injury list starting to return to fitness they look a far stronger position than their struggling visitors. West Brom have won just once in their last 26 and lost five in a row in all competitions. Defeats to Chelsea and Man City were expected but the other three at home to Southampton twice and Huddersfield suggest they’re destined for the drop.

Since winning at Turf Moor in their opening away game the Baggies have lost nine of 13 winless road games, including five of seven under Pardew where they’ve scored just three times. The Hornets have won three of their last five at Vicarage Road – all against top-half sides – and they look excellent value at odds-against.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford Win at 2.1

Liverpool v Newcastle

Sunday March 4, 4:30am AEDST

Liverpool have gathered steam since Christmas with seven victories in their last nine while averaging 2.7 goals per game and last time out they ensured they maintained their unbeaten record at Anfield this term by thumping West Ham 4-1. Rafa Benitez was able to conjure a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture but Liverpool were in the midst of a poor spell and it will be a lot more difficult to contain them here. Newcastle are in fine fettle themselves with their only two defeats in their last 10 coming against the champions elect but Jurgen Klopp’s men are the only side in the division that can match Man City in terms of attacking play.

The Magpies have lost but found the net in all three of their trips to the top five so far and as they’ve gone seven games since drawing a blank we think they can get on the scoresheet against what is the weakest defence of those top-five teams. Indeed, the Reds’ only clean sheets in their last eight at home were against two of the divisions least prolific sides – Swansea and West Brom – as they’ve yielded seven in their last four.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win and Both Teams To Score at 2.7

Crystal Palace v Man Utd

Tuesday March 6, 7:00am AEDST

Palace’s injury-stricken squad battled hard but eventually lost 1-0 to Spurs and it doesn’t get any easier as they welcome another of the big guns to Selhurst Park. Their last four at home have all had fewer than three goals with no more than one strike in three of these, including a goalless draw with Man City, and we can see this game following a similar pattern of Hodgson setting his side up for a point in the absence of their key attacking players.

Indeed, the Eagles’ terrible record without Zaha has been well documented but the loss of arguably their most creative midfielder, Yohan Cabaye, also has a massive impact. They’re W1-D2-L9 in their last 12 without the Frenchman where they’ve scored just twice as five of the six home games have had fewer then three strikes, as has been the case in seven of the last eight Zaha has missed here.

Man Utd continued their impressive home form with an important victory over Chelsea but they’ve lost their last two on the road without scoring and their last four away from Old Trafford have all had fewer than three goals. They should have too much for this depleted Palace side though but we think the hosts will at least keep it respectable.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.81

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