Watford v Chelsea

Tuesday Feburary 6, 7:00am AEDST

The Hornets were involved in a low-quality stalemate against bottom-six side Stoke in their last game that saw debutant Gerard Deulofeu put in a good performance which was at least something to take away from a disappointing display. Meanwhile, Chelsea were stunned by Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night, dropping to fourth in the table.

Watford have lost eight of their last 12 games with just win in that time and their only clean sheet was versus the Potters last time out. Chelsea were disappointing in midweek but should have some of their big guns back here and have won all their last five games against current bottom-half teams, scoring 15 goals in the process.

The Hornets have gone W1-D2-L4 against the top-six this season although they managed to score 11 goals across these games, only failing to find the net against Man City so we think they will at least cause this Blues defence some trouble. With that being said, we fancy Chelsea to bounce back from their mid-week defeat with new signing Olivier Giroud set to make his debut and so we are going with a Chelsea win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win/ Both Teams to Score at 3.5

Burnley v Manchester City

Saturday February 3, 11.30pm AEDST

It seems Man City are in their own private league with all their close competition slipping up in the last two weeks and so it doesn’t look like anyone will be competing with them for the title this year. The league leaders did it again with a comfortable win against bottom of the table West Brom in midweek, scoring three goals for the fourth game on the trot. Burnley, on the other hand, were involved in a tight 1-1 draw with bottom-six side Newcastle managing to salvage a late point in the 85th minute from an own goal.

The Clarets have failed to win any of their last eight games and it doesn’t get any easier here with them struggling at home against the top-six, losing all four this term and managing only one goal across these. The Citizens, conversely, have won eight of nine trips to sides outside the top-six while keeping six clean sheets and with new signing Laporte settling in seamlessly it’s difficult to see Burnley causing too many problems.

Indeed, Sean Dyche’s side have scored the fewest goals in the division in front of their own fans this season. However, they are well organised and rarely thrashed so we’re going to side with an away win to nil rather than back City on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at 2.0

Bournemouth v Stoke

Sunday February 4, 2:00am AEDST

The Cherries in their last game put in an outstanding performance dominating a strong Chelsea side at Stamford Bridge and taking themselves into the top half of the table. Stoke, on the other hand, were held to a goalless draw at home against a very mediocre Watford side, who had lost seven of their last eight on the road in the build up to it.

The Potters are unbeaten under Paul Lambert, but he couldn’t have asked for two easier games at home to start with. It’s a tough ask for him to turn the Potters woeful away form around as they’ve lost eight of 12 trips this term and if we take out bottom-six clubs then its 16 defeats from 22 since the start of last season. Bournemouth have been in great form and are unbeaten in their last six games, winning both their last two at home against Arsenal and Everton. There other two victories at Dean Court were against bottom-six clubs and we think they look a good thing here.

Betting Strategy 

 BACK – Bournemouth WIN at 2.05

Brighton v West Ham United

Sunday February 4, 2:00am AEDST

Both these sides were able to secure a point in their midweek fixtures thanks to goals from the penalty spot. Neither Brighton at St Mary’s nor West Ham at home created much else and this looks as if will be another match of fine margins. David Moyes is scratching around for attacking options with top scorer Arnautovic, leading assister Lanzini and Andy Carroll all sidelined. Such is the injury crisis at the club that the Scot was forced to field a team of six defenders and two defensive midfielders on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the Hammers have done well to go unbeaten in six games, though four of these ended all-square.

While Chris Hughton pretty much had a fully fit squad to choose from, his side are just short of confidence going forward having netted five times in 13 league outings. They won just one of these games but at home they remain a tough nut to crack as Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City are the only sides to leave with maximum points. However, they’ve won just one of their last nine at the Falmers with six draws and given the low-scoring encounter we’re anticipating, the stalemate looks the best value in the match outcome market.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – The Draw at 3.1

Leicester v Swansea

Sunday February 4, 2:00am AEDST

A resurgent Swansea have taken 10 points from Carvalhal’s first five games in charge, including major scalps Liverpool and Arsenal, so they won’t be arriving at the King Power short of confidence. Their only defeat in eight in all competitions under the Portuguese was to Spurs and so we think they’ve been a little underestimated in the market.

Leicester have won just two of their last eight in the league and admittedly they were both at home, but the Swans are certainly playing better than both Watford and Huddersfield at the moment. Riyad Marhez has thrown his toys out the pram and after failing to get a transfer away is unlikely to take part here with his head clearly not in the right space. Since the start of last season, the Foxes have scored just three times and lost six of seven winless matches without their influential winger and so we’ll take them on here at the prices.

Betting Strategy

 LAY- Leicester at 1.8

Manchester United v Huddersfield

Sunday February 4, 2:00am AEDST

Huddersfield’s most memorable moment so far of their debut Premier League season came when they beat the mighty Man Utd at home, but they’ve since gone W3-D3-L10, which includes six defeats from eight on the road. They’ve failed to score in nine of their 12 away matches and have lost by an aggregate of 8-0 in their two trips to the Big Six (Liverpool and Arsenal), and so Man Utd should have no problem returning to winning ways here.

The 2-0 defeat at Wembley was a disappointing result and performance by Mourinho’s men, but it was a continuation of poor results travelling to their main rivals, whereas at home and against weaker opposition they are rarely troubled. Neighbours City are the only side to win at Old Trafford this term as United have won eight of their remaining 10 games there, shutting their opponents out in seven of these victories. Prior to the loss to Spurs they’d kept six consecutive clean sheets in all competitions and so a home win to nil looks banker material in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd Win to Nil at 1.62

West Brom v Southampton

Sunday February 4, 2:00am AEDST

The Saints had to settle with a draw at home in mid-week while the Baggies were victims of another Man City win so both teams will be desperate for a victory here in this vital six-pointer at the Hawthorns.

Southampton are winless in 12 now, drawing seven of these with all their last three resulting in a stalemate whilst they’ve also drawn five of their last seven games against bottom-six sides. West Brom, meanwhile, have lost only to the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea at home this season but have drawn seven of their remaining nine games. They start as slight favourites but are without their solid defenders Jonny Evans and Kieran Gibbs, while Southampton are still struggling without top-scorer Charlie Austin. They are the two clubs with the least wins in the Premier League this season so the draw looks the one to go for here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – The Draw at 3.1

Arsenal v Everton

Sunday February 4, 4:30am AEDST

Arsenal’s defensive woes continued as they conceded three in a shambolic display at the Liberty Stadium, meaning they’ve gone seven league matches without a clean sheet whilst yielding 14 goals. Most of the damage has been done on the road and for all their shortcomings in this department they remain a side to follow on home soil when facing weaker opposition. Excluding fellow ‘Big Six’ sides the Gunners have won 20 of 22 matches at the Emirates since the start of last season, including all eight this term and even leading at the break in six of these.

Everton ended a six-match winless streak with victory at home over Leicester as new signing Theo Walcott has hit the ground running with two goals and an assist in his opening two games and he’ll be keen to make an impression on his return to the Emirates. However, the Toffees are generally poor on their travels and particularly dismal travelling to ‘Big Six’ opposition, losing 15 of 23 winless trips since 2014/15. They trailed at half-time in 13 of these defeats, including all three this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal HT/ Arsenal FT

Crystal Palace v Newcastle

Monday Feburary 5, 1:15am AEDST

Aside from a pair of defeats against Arsenal, Palace are unbeaten in 12 league outings, while on home turf they’ve won half of eight unbeaten matches. After initially tightening up the defence once he’d settled into the job, Roy Hodgson’s rear-guard has become has become less secure with just three clean sheets in their last 10, though Man City are the only side to shut them out in this run, resulting in both teams scoring in seven.

Newcastle continue to pick up points with their only defeats in their last seven against the champions elect. They’ve lost five of their last eight on the road but each of these were against sides currently in the top-seven. In their last three they’ve won at West Ham and Stoke and so we’re happy to avoid Palace at the prices here. Instead, we’ll back both teams to score as Benitez’s side seem to be much more of a threat on their travels, failing to score only at Arsenal in their last seven which includes trips to the Etihad, Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.95

Liverpool v Tottenham

Monday Feburary 5, 3:30am AEDST

Spurs surprised a few people in their last game at Wembley with the ease at which they beat Man Utd. The result stretched their run to five wins from seven unbeaten matches, but it’s so far been their away form that’s let them down this season, losing half of their last eight games. Liverpool, meanwhile, overcame the Terriers at the Kirklees Stadium after their mid-week blip to Swansea which is their only defeat in their last 16.

Three of those four away defeats for Pochettino’s side were at one of their main rivals and travelling to fellow Big Six clubs since the start of last season they’ve lost six of eight winless games and have failed to score in half of these. The Reds, on the other hand, have a terrific record versus the top-six under Klopp, going W6-D7-L1 at Anfield where they’ve won four of the last six including most recently against the league leaders in impressive style.

Although clean sheets don’t normally get spoken about with this Liverpool outfit they have managed to keep one in seven of their 12 games at home this season where they remain unbeaten and should prove too much for this Tottenham side who are playing their second Big Six side in a week- we’re going with a Liverpool win here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool at 2.05


RELATED ARTICLES

EPL Products and Resources

Spanning nine months and 380 games, the English Premier League is one of the most popular sports leagues in ...

Read More

Poisson Distribution: How To Use It

In 2001 I spent many months creating an Elo rating system for professional snooker. After numerous false starts and ...

Read More

Risk of Ruin

A few weeks ago we received an email advertising a tipster with the title ‘Exploding the Myth: Making Money ...

Read More