Tottenham v Southampton

Tuesday December 26, 11:30am AEDST

With Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal all drawing at the weekend it was a bumper round for Spurs. At the halfway stage we have five teams fighting for three Champions League spots which will be a welcome excitement given Man City’s dominance in the race for the title.

Spurs have won five of their last six in the league at Wembley after thrashing all of APOEL, Dortmund and Real Madrid at the national stadium also. We can certainly say that their ‘Wembley curse’ is no more. Spurs have won six of their last nine games against middle-third teams and in each of the victories they led at HT and covered the -1.5 goal handicap. This is a great opportunity to extend that streak.

Southampton let a 1-0 lead slip at home to newboys Huddersfield at the weekend to extend their winless streak to six games in the league. The Saints have had L/L double results in 15 of their 29 away matches travelling to top-six finishers over the past five seasons and they’ve already lost travelling to Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea this term – they trailed at the Etihad and Stamford Bridge.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs W/W HT/FT 2.20

Bournemouth v West Ham

Wednesday December 27, 2:00am AEDST

Both teams lost high-scoring matches on Saturday. Bournemouth went down 4-0 at the Etihad while West Ham suffered an embarrassing setback as they went down 3-2 at home to struggling Newcastle. The pair of defeats have meant both sides remain in the bottom four at the halfway point of the season making this a festive six-pointer.

Only Stoke have conceded more than the Hammers this season and they’ve let in at least two goals in seven of their 10 on the road so far so this represents a great opportunity for the Cherries getting back to winning form. Eddie Howe’s side are winless in seven shipping 12 goals in their last six.

With two porous defences we should see much excitement here. Since gaining promotion to the top-flight, 71% of Bournemouth’s home matches have had Over 2.5 Goals when netting.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals 2.18

Chelsea v Brighton

Wednesday December 27, 2:00am AEDST

Chelsea got away with their dreary goalless draw at Goodison as Champions League rivals Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs all slipped up as well. The Blues have now won just one of their last four on the road but they remain strong at the Bridge. They’ve won their last five at home though Man Utd were the only opponents in the top-nine in that spell.

Brighton have struggled on the road this season. They’ve lost six of nine away matches including three losses to nil in their three trips to the ‘Big Six’ so far. The Seagulls have netted just twice in their last seven matches and now travel to a Chelsea side with a formidable W12-D3-L1 record hosting promoted opposition over the past five seasons including three wins to nil in their last four. 1.70 for a fourth in five is good enough for us.

Betting Strategy

BACK Chelsea Win to Nil 1.70

Huddersfield v Stoke

Wednesday December 27, 2:00am AEDST

Mark Hughes was seemingly one game away from the sack before the visit of West Brom but three points has immediately lifted them to a lofty 14th position in the table and another win here could take them level with Watford in 10th!

Huddersfield came from behind to get a point at St Mary’s which came on the back of their emphatic 4-1 win at Watford. Four points from consecutive road games means they’ll return to their home ground with great confidence. They’ve already won four times at the John Smith’s Stadium already this term including beating Man Utd. Impressively they’ve gone W3-D1-L0 hosting sides in the current bottom-half so far as well.

Stoke have conceded five more goals than any other team in the league including shipping 21 from nine on the road. One win doesn’t make a season for Stoke though and overall their form has been dreadful, Huddersfield can re-pile on the pressure on Sparky.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Huddersfield Win 2.60

Manchester United v Burnley

Wednesday December 27, 2:00am AEDST

Jose Mourinho has taken a lot of abuse from Man Utd fans during his tenure but he was free from blame in Saturday’s evening slipup. Instead it is his players that deserve criticism as individual errors cost United dearly. Shockers from Martial, Lingard, Rashford, Smalling and, arguably, star-man David De Gea meant they remained only a goal in-front of 10-man Leicester before the Foxes equalised in the final minute. United look a completely different side with Pogba pulling the strings and it is only a matter of time until they batter someone. Burnley could be the ideal fodder.

Expected Goals fanboys revelled in delight as Burnley came crashing to earth in a 3-0 home defeat to Spurs. The visitors have netted just twice in their last five matches and now travel to a side that have conceded just 14 goals all season. United have kept a clean sheet in seven of their nine home matches so far this term including four wins where they’ve netted at least four goals.

We’re keen on backing Any Other Home Win when the market forms but for now the strongest bet of the game is a home win to nil at 1.80.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd Win to Nil 1.80

Watford v Leicester

Wednesday December 27, 2:00am AEDST

Watford have taken no points from their last four league games despite facing Palace, Huddersfield, Burnley and Brighton. Next up they face an in-form Leicester side who would fancy themselves against any of the aforementioned sides. Worryingly, they’ve kept just one clean sheet at home this season as four of the matches have had Over 4.5 Goals.

Despite playing the final half hour with 10-men against a star-studded Man Utd side, Leicester came from behind to nick a last-minute point. Though full of festive drama, they were fortunate to get a point as United exposed them many times but spurned multiple gilt-edged chances.

Both teams have scored in their last five matches as four have featured at least three goals. Claude Puel seems happy starting the attacking trio of Gray, Mahrez and Vardy. The latter two combined to open the scoring against United in a blistering counter attack and they should take advantage of a porous Watford defence on Boxing Day.

11 of Leicester’s last 15 trips to middle-third sides have had Over 2.5 Goals and seven have had four or more. Over 2.5 Goals is the standout bet here but with the current form of each side an away win with both teams netting at bigger than 5.0.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals 1.88

West Brom v Everton

Wednesday December 27, 2:00am AEDST

West Brom’s winless streak now stands at a, quite incredible, 17 games. 17! The Baggies were thrashed 3-1 at Stoke on Saturday and next face an in-form Everton side. Since Allardyce was named as manager of the Toffees they’ve won four of six matches to jump from the relegation zone into the top-half.

Despite this all West Brom are a quite unfathomable 2.56 to win this game. Everton have lost just two of their last nine trips to bottom-six sides and they’ve gone W5-D3-L1 in their last nine against West Brom.

Teams in the relegation zone have won just 35% of matches against middle-third teams over the past five seasons. This looks an ideal time to lay the home side keeping the draw and an Everton

Betting Strategy

LAY – West Brom 2.56

Liverpool v Swansea

Wednesday December 27, 4:30am AEDST

Liverpool’s six-goal thriller with Arsenal on Friday extended their winless streak to 10 games. They’ve won six of the 10 and all of the victories have featured at least three goals. 12 of Liverpool’s 16 home wins since the start of last season have had Over 2.5 Goals.

Klopp and his team will be very confident of extending their impressive streak given the form of their opponents. Swansea have lost their last six on the road and they’ve also lost 70% of their home and away games against top-six finishers over the last five seasons. 43 of the 60 matches in that sample size have had Over 2.5 Goals. 17 of their last 30 trips to top-six finishers have resulted in defeats with at least three match goals scored.

With Liverpool in such good form this is a great opportunity to take advantage of the ‘Any Other Home Win’ offered by Betfair. This settles as a winner if Liverpool win and score at least four goals which they’ll have ample chances to do here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Correct Score: Any Other Home Win 2.80

Newcastle v Manchester City

Thursday December 28, 6:45am AEDST

Newcastle snapped their nine-game winless (W0-D1-L8) Premier League streak with a vital three points at the Olympic Stadium on Saturday to ease some pressure on everyone around the club. Next up is the visit of the Champions elect Man City who continue to trample over all in their path. On Saturday they won 4-0 without playing that well! Since drawing against Everton in Round 2 Pep’s side have won 17 in a road including scoring at least four goals seven times. Immediately the 3.50 on at least four City goals appeals.

The Magpies have lost their last four at home including conceding three goals in two of the games. While they are yet to let in four in one game at St James’ Park yet this season, City are so far in front of the rest in the division that could change quickly.

City are playing better football than any team in Europe at the moment and we can’t see that stopping anytime soon especially against a team so out of form like Newcastle.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Correct Score: Any Other Away Win 3.50

Crystal Palace v Arsenal

Friday December 29, 7:00am AEDST

A London derby wraps up this round of festive fixtures as south hosts north and it looks like we have a great opportunity to take on Arsenal odds-on away from home.

Palace’s point at Swansea extended their unbeaten streak to eight games. Their revival under Hodgson has been impressive and all that’s been missing is a big result. We’re confident they can get one here. Arsenal somehow got a point against Liverpool despite playing well for only five of the 90 minutes. Wenger’s side have won just one of their last five in the league as they failed to win at Southampton or West Ham – two sides Palace would fancy themselves against. The Gunners have won just two of nine road matches so far this term.

Teams placed 15th-17th have lost just 47% of matches hosting teams placed 5th-7th over the past five seasons. That partnered with Palace’s recent improvements in form and Arsenal’s struggles on the road mean laying the Gunners odds-on is the obvious play here.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Arsenal 1.83


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