Brighton v Crystal Palace

Wednesday November 29, 6:45am AEDST

Brighton have already faced six of the current bottom-seven this season and they’re unbeaten across these fixtures, winning half. Furthermore, since losing to Man City on the opening day they’ve not lost at home and while the last three have been stalemates, they’ll be feeling confident in front of their own fans against a Palace side that have lost all six of their away games this term.

The Eagles are starting to pick up points at home but on the road they’re winless and goalless in eight stretching back to last season. However, seven of these trips were against top-seven sides and they were unlucky to go down 1-0 at both Newcastle and Spurs in their latest two, so there are signs of improvement. Excluding the Big Six, Palace are still only W4-D3-L8 on their travels since the start of last season, but they’ve at least averaged 1.5 goals per game across these as eight had at least three strikes.

Over 2.5 Goals looks over-priced in our book as Palace are improving going forward while Brighton have plenty of scoring form when playing at the Falmer Stadium. Indeed, the Seagulls have only failed to score against Man City and look dangerous going forward when Knockaert and Izquierdo line up. They were involved in a high-scoring affair with Stoke in their last home match and we could well see something similar here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.44

Leicester v Tottenham

Wednesday November 29, 6.45am AEDST

Leicester only managed a draw at West Ham and they now face much tougher opposition in the form of Spurs and all five defeats this season have been against the Big Six. It means the Foxes have lost 13 of their last 17 to such opposition since the start of last season which includes eight straight defeats. At the King Power it’s six losses in their last seven, one of which saw Spurs put six past them at the backend of last season.

Spurs have lost their last two on the road at Arsenal and Man Utd but it’s been well documented how poor their return is when visiting their main rivals. Exclude their fellow Big Six clubs and Pochettino’s men are a far more accomplished W13-D4-L1 on their travels since the start of last season, scoring an average of over four gaols a game across the last six. With this in mind they look a fair price here and we expect them to bounce back from their disappointing draw with West Brom with a comfy victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 1.76

Watford v Manchester United

Wednesday November 29, 7:00am AEDST

Watford are as short as 2.88 to win the Premier League without the Big Six. They are currently in eighth spot just one behind Burnley with a seven-point lead over second-favourites in the market in Leicester. The hosts have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight matches as they’ve been led by Richarlison. The Brazilian looks a genuine world beater.

They face the league’s most meagre defence here. Man Utd have conceded just six goals all season. Under Mourinho, United have gone W3-D6-L4 travelling to top-half opposition and anyone who’s watched the games will have done well to stay awake. 11 of the 13 have had Under 2.5 Goals and seven Under 1.5 Goals.

This game very much depends on how much Mourinho rates Watford and we think he should rate them very highly indeed. If so, we can expect much of the same from the Red Devils when they take on the better teams. Under 2.5 Goals at odds-against is the bet of the game.

United have won nine of their 13 matches this season though they’ve been more lucky than good. At Old Trafford at the weekend they struggled to get past promoted Brighton and were under the cosh at the end of the match. Watford, meanwhile, have had some unlucky defeats in recent weeks coupled with some impressive wins. Teams in 7th-9th hosting teams in the top-three have lost just 42% of matches over the past five seasons so the 1.71 on an away victory is on the skinny side.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.04

 LAY – Man United Win at 1.73

West Brom v Newcastle

Wednesday November 29, 7:00am AEDST

West Brom conceded four times in their last home match while Newcastle let in four in their last away fixture. The hosts haven’t won since the second game of the season and the visitors have lost their last four in the league. With two teams struggling so much it can be tough to pick a winner but one team should be shorter than they currently are.

Though The Baggies have struggled against the better teams in the league their record against the lesser sides remains strong. Since the start of last season they’ve won six of 10 matches hosting bottom-half teams. It’s worth noting that just two of those matches were this term and they were a pair of draws against West Ham and Stoke – two teams that are better than their opponents.

It’s extremely likely that both of these sides finish in the bottom-half. Since 2012/13, bottom-half sides have won 51% of matches hosting bottom-half promoted teams. That stat alone suggests that in situations where two poor teams square off home advantage is the key. With Newcastle still with a raft of injuries that have accentuated their recent woes they’ll struggle to get anything at the Hawthorns.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Brom at 2.48

Arsenal v Huddersfield

Thursday November 30, 6:45am AEDST

Arsenal may have been a tad fortunate to leave Turf Moor with all three points, but the result means they’ve won four their last five to climb into the top four. They’ve been imperious at the Emirates this term and have in fact won their last 11 there in the league if we included games at the backend of last season. Eight of these were accompanied by a clean sheet, which we fancy them to achieve again against their latest visitors.

Huddersfield put in a gutsy display against Man City, but only scored via an own-goal and didn’t actually manage a shot on target themselves. Since scoring at Palace on the opening day the Terriers have drawn a blank in their next five away games, suffering heavy defeats at Bournemouth and Liverpool most recently.

Indeed, we give the underdogs little hope here as Arsenal have won 12 of 13 unbeaten matches hosting promoted sides since 2013/14 as they’ve conceded just three goals in this time. Moreover, the Gunners are a much better side with Koscielny and Mustafi paired at the back and they’ve yet to concede in the five games they’ve started together this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal Win to Nil at 1.95

Bournemouth v Burnley

Thursday November 30, 6:45am AEDST

After a poor start to the season Bournemouth have lost only two of their last seven – against Chelsea and Spurs – as they’ve conceded just three times across these games. They come up against another stubborn side in Burnley, who excluding the Manchester clubs have the best defensive record in the division.

Sean Dyche’s men were unlucky not to get at least a point against Arsenal and for the majority of the game were going toe-to-toe with the Gunners. They’ve gone W5-D2-L1 against teams outside the top six this season and they’ve tended to be tight with just one of these being decided by more than a goals difference and all eight featuring fewer than three strikes and six having no more than one.

This is another we expect to be closely contested so we wouldn’t put anyone off backing ‘unders’, but given how difficult it’s been to overcome Burnley this campaign, The Cherries look a little short to us, despite their recent improvement. Indeed, Bournemouth’s only two victories at home this season have been against promoted sides, while The Clarets have only lost at the Etihad on the road despite having already travelled to four of the Big Six. They registered 1-0 triumphs at Southampton and Everton recently, a result we wouldn’t be surprised to see again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Burnley +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.26

Chelsea v Swansea

Thursday November 30, 6:45am AEDST

After being so impressive on home soil last season it’s been a bit more of a struggle for Chelsea this term, but this can partly be blamed on a tough fixture list. They’ve welcomed five of the current top eight and have gone just W2-D1-L2 across these, but the other was a comfortable 2-0 victory over 16th-placed Everton. Antonio Conte welcomes another bottom-six sides in Swansea and during his tenure Chelsea hold a 22-5 aggregate score over such opposition at home.

Swansea are the lowest scorers in the division and have netted just three times on the road this season, two of which came at Palace while Frank de Boer was in charge. If they’re unable to penetrate the Chelsea defence it could be a long night at the Bridge trying to stop the likes of Hazard and Morata. The Swans will take heart from a draw at Spurs and only going down by a goal at the Emirates but Arsenal haven’t been blowing sides away this season while their neighbours’ Wembley struggles have been well-documented.

We think the Blues will appreciate playing some easier opponents and indeed averaged 3.3 goals a game hosting bottom six clubs last term. They won five of these matches by two or more goals and half by at least a three-goal margin, so with the win to nil as short as it is, we prefer to back the hosts on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea -2 Handicap at 2.1

Everton v West Ham

Thursday November 30, 7:00am AEDST

The ever-widening gap between the ‘Big 6’ and the rest means that matches between two out of form sides become ever more regular. Everton come into this game off a 4-1 loss at Southampton and remain without a permanent manager. They are trying their hardest to sign Marco Silva from Watford but each game they lose surely makes the prospect less and less appealing for the Portuguese. It’s difficult to use any history from last season to formulate betting on Everton matches considering the huge void left by Lukaku.

The Toffees have won three, lost three at Goodison Park this season. They’ve already faced four of the current top-eight and they won both of their games against current bottom-half sides – Bournemouth and Stoke – albeit narrowly. They couldn’t wish for many better teams to face right now than the beleaguered Hammers. The visitors have lost four of seven winless away games this season despite travelling to some very mediocre sides.

Both sides have struggled defensively this term. West Ham have conceded in six in a row in the league – they are also without a win in that period – while Everton haven’t kept a clean sheet since the first day of the season! 17 of the visitors 26 away games since the start of last season have had Over 2.5 Goals and that increases to 14 in 18 when conceding. 11 of these matches have seen at least four goals and we’re backing a 12th in 19 for Moyes’ return to Goodison.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 Goals 3.8

Manchester City v Southampton

Thursday November 30, 7:00am AEDST

Man City are 1.20 to win here which implies they have a 83% chance of winning the game. We have three models that suggest they have an 81%, 83% and 86% chance respectively so on the face of the price is right.

The Citizens have won five in a row at home. Each of the wins has been by two clear goals and they’ve won both halves on each occasion too. They are playing at a level rarely, if ever, seen before in the Premier League.

Over the past four seasons when Southampton have finished at worst eighth, they’ve done reasonably well against the big boys. The Saints have lost just nine of their 16 trips to sides that finished in the Champions League spots but this is arguably the worst of the Southampton teams during that spell travelling to the best team that any of those sides had to face.

There is nothing to suggest that the great run that City are on will come to a halt any time soon. With the array of riches at Pep’s disposal it’s no surprise that his team kick on in the second half even when they’re in front. Ride the train until it stops.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City to Win Both Halves 2.0+

Stoke v Liverpool

Thursday November 30, 7:00am AEDST

Stoke’s aura of being a tough team to travel to diminishes by the day. Mark Hughes’ side used to have an average record against the big boys but in recent years they’ve been dreadful. Last season they lost nine of 12 win-less games against the top-six including shipping at least four goals in half of the matches. The 1-0 win hosting Arsenal this term was more than cancelled out by the 4-0 drubbing by Chelsea here and their 7-2 defeat at the Etihad.

Liverpool can look forward to an improvement in performance as they welcome back Mane and, equally significantly, Lallana to the fold. All of their superstars should be relishing this opportunity to take on one of the league’s weakest sides. The Reds were fantastic in their 1-1 draw against Chelsea at Anfield on Saturday and arguably deserved more than just a single point against Conte’s boys.  Prior to that they took nine from nine netting 10 goals against Southampton, West Ham and Huddersfield. You could make a case for those three all being stronger than the current Stoke side so we’re expecting another trouncing.

One way to benefit from such a result on Betfair as opposed to corporates is by using the Correct Score market. The prices on Betfair for Any Other Away Win – which settles as a win if Liverpool win and score at least four goals – will be much better than you’ll find elsewhere. Don’t miss this opportunity to profit.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Any Other Away Win 6.5+


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