Liverpool v Middlesbrough

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

Liverpool were impressive 4-0 winners at the London Stadium last time out and Jurgen Klopp will be particularly pleased that his side made it three clean sheets in a row with that win. As a result, victory here would assure them of a top-four finish and they’re as short as 1.17 to pick up that win. Relegated Boro were beaten 2-1 against Southampton in their last game and can do no better or worse than the 19th spot they currently occupy.

Liverpool are winless in three at Anfield as they were held to draws against Bournemouth and Southampton and were beaten 2-1 by Palace. Indeed, while they’ve won four of six unbeaten games against top-seven sides, they’re only W7-D3-L2 against the rest of the division as the likes of Swansea and West Ham have also come away with points from Anfield. Indeed the Reds’ only clean sheet in 11 visits from sides outside the top-eight came against Sunderland, so that should give Boro plenty of encouragement.

Steve Agnew’s side have managed to score in three of their last four, though each of those were at home. Nonetheless, they’ve proven that they can be competitive at the top teams this term as they managed draws at the Emirates and Etihad earlier on in the season, went down by just a single goal at Utd and Spurs, while it was only champions Chelsea who beat them convincingly. As a result, we’re siding with them +2 on the Asian Handicap against a Liverpool side that has struggled relatively when hosting the lesser sides all season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Middlesbrough +2 Asian Handicap at 2.02

Watford v Man City

Monday May 22, 12:00m AEST

Watford suffered their fifth consecutive defeat as they were edged out in a 4-3 thriller at Stamford Bridge and so they’ve slipped all the way down to 16th. Man City, on the other hand, won for the third game in a row as they beat West Brom 3-1 at home to all but secure a top-four spot by virtue of their superior goal difference over Arsenal, though they’ll want to win here to guarantee 3rd and avoid having to play in the final round of Champions League qualification next term.

After three straight away games, Watford will be glad to return to Vicarage Road, where they’ve won three of their last four, conceding just one goal across these games. However, while they beat Man Utd earlier on in the season, they’ve generally struggled against the top teams as they’ve lost their other four home games against top-six opposition. They did however manage to find the net in four of these five matches and have failed to score on their own turf only three times all season.

City have kept just three clean sheets in their last 10 and so the Hornets will certainly fancy their chances of continuing that impressive scoring record. The Citizens are W7-D1-L0 when travelling to sides outside the top-11 this term and given their impressive form since Jesus returned to the side, they should have too much for their hosts here. However, since they kept only three clean sheets in these eight trips to bottom-nine teams, we think the Hornets can at least find the net against them. We’re backing City to win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.4

Chelsea v Sunderland

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

Chelsea’s rotated side eventually triumphed in a 4-3 thriller against Watford and with the FA Cup final coming up, they’ll surely be back to full strength in preparation for that as they go in search of a record-breaking 30th win of the season. Sunderland kept Arsenal at bay for 71 minutes at the Emirates before the Gunners eventually broke through and condemned the Black Cats to their 25th defeat of the season and also ensured that they can’t avoid the wooden spoon.

Chelsea have won 16 of their 18 home games this term, though they’ve been more vulnerable defensively in recent times keeping a clean sheet in only one of their last seven at the Bridge, compared with seven clean sheets in their first 11 there. They’ve been emphatic in victory over bottom-seven sides at home, with five of their six wins against such opposition by more than one goal and they also led at the break in five. They also kept clean sheets against Boro, Hull and Burnley, beating each of those either 2-0 or 3-0, and we expect something similar here.

Sunderland failed to score for the 11th time in 13 games against Arsenal and have in fact managed to score in only two of their six trips to top-seven sides so far, losing each of these games. Man Utd were the only side to score more than twice against them in a 3-1 win at Old Trafford and so we’re going to dutch the 2-0 and 3-0 correct scores here at combined odds of 3.25.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Dutch 2-0 and 3-0 correct scores at 3.25

Arsenal v Everton

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

The Gunners made it four victories on the bounce with their 2-0 win over Sunderland, but with City also winning against West Brom on Wednesday, Wenger’s men need to win here and hope that Liverpool slip up against Middlesbrough if they’re to achieve Champions League qualification. Everton, meanwhile, won for the first time in four as they edged past Watford 1-0 at home and are assured of 7th place.

Arsenal have won their last four at the Emirates without conceding and they’ve won all five of their home games against teams between 6th and 11th. They kept a clean sheet in the last three of these, though they were level at the break in all five of these victories and the first half has in fact been goalless in their last four at the Emirates.

Everton have been impressive at Goodison Park this term, where they’ve lost only twice, but they’ve struggled on their travels, winning just four times on the road and none of their last seven. Two of those wins came in their opening two away games and they’ve picked up only two points from their five trips to top-six sides to date, shipping 13 goals in the process. They did however manage to net in all of these games except at Chelsea and their attack will provide the new-look Gunners defence with a tough test here. We’re going to take a chance on the home win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.2

Burnley v West Ham

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

There’s little riding on this game with both sides safe but Burnley will want to put in another good performance at Turf Moor, where they’ve been so good this term. Indeed, it’s been their performances there that have been key in keeping them in the division, something few gave them a chance of doing at the start of the season. For West Ham it’s been a more disappointing season, exemplified by the fact that they were unable to follow up their impressive 1-0 win over Spurs as they were beaten 4-0 by Liverpool at the London Stadium.

After a run of five straight home wins, Burnley have since managed just one victory in their last five at Turf Moor. However, they’ve had a tough run of fixtures as they hosted four top-nine sides in that time, whilst they won the other against Stoke. Indeed, when hosting sides outside the top six, they’re W9-D2-L1 this term, with that sole defeat coming against Swansea on the opening day of the season.

West Ham are winless in six on the road, despite the fact that four of these were against bottom-seven sides, while they’ve failed to score in two of their last three on their travels. Burnley have the 8th best home record in the division and so if we look at teams between 7th and 14th, the Hammers are W1-D1-L4 on the road this term and given the nature of their defeat against Liverpool last time out, Burnley look a fair price at 2.45 to win for the 11th time at Turf Moor.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Burnley Win at 2.45

Swansea v West Brom

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

Swansea made it three wins from four unbeaten games with their 2-0 win at the Stadium of Light and so they’re now just three points behind Palace in 13th. West Brom, meanwhile, continue to struggle with little left to play for as they secured their Premier League status long ago and were beaten for the sixth time in seven winless games at the Etihad last time out. As a result, they’re not guaranteed a top-half finish and should they fail to achieve that it would be a major disappointment given they sat in 8th for so long.

Swansea are in impressive form at home where they’ve won five of their last seven and kept a clean sheet in three of their last four. Indeed, they’re an impressive W6-D0-L2 against teams between 7th and 15th, including wins in all five of those games under Clement. Three of these five wins were without conceding, whilst they’ve also led at the break in five of their last seven at the Liberty Stadium under the Englishman.

West Brom are winless in eight on the road, conceding at least twice in their last three on their travels, despite the fact that two of these were against bottom-six sides. They’ve trailed at the break in three of their last five on the road and as a result Swansea/Swansea HT/FT is certainly of interest at 3.4, but at odds-against Paul Clement’s side are a big enough price for the win to be our standout selection.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Swansea Win at 2.04

Southampton v Stoke

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

Saints played out their third bore draw in five games last time out against Man Utd and so they remain in 8th, though West Brom, Bournemouth and Leicester are all within close proximity. Stoke are further back in 14th after they were thumped 4-1 by Arsenal, with their only win in their last 10 coming against relegated Hull.

Southampton have now failed to score in their last four at St Mary’s and while three of these were against top-six sides, the other was against Hull and so that has to be a concern. Their only wins in their last 10 at home came against Leicester before Shakespeare took over and against Palace just a few days after they’d put in a monumental effort to win at Chelsea. As a result, we’re not particularly keen on backing them at 1.85.

A large part of the reason for them being that short is Stoke’s dire away form that has seen them pick up only two points from their last seven on the road, failing to score in six of these games. Indeed, their three away wins this term have all come against bottom-five sides and so we’re going to avoid the match outcome markets here and instead, given both these sides’ struggles in front of goal, we’ll back Under 2.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.98

Man Utd v Crystal Palace

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

Man Utd’s winless run was stretched to five games after they played out a goalless draw at Southampton and whilst Mourinho has never gone six Premier League games without a win, that record looks in danger here after he announced that he would involve even more youngsters for this one ahead of the Europa League final. Palace, meanwhile, ended a run of three straight defeats with a resounding 4-0 win over Hull to move back up to 13th.

Utd have drawn six of their last eight at Old Trafford, whilst three of their five victories in their last 15 there came against bottom-five sides. They’ve managed only eight goals in as many matches at the Theatre of Dreams, with all of these games seeing fewer than three goals and so we’re reluctant to back the Red Devils at 2.4, considering the side Mourinho is likely to field will be significantly weaker than the ones that achieved these underwhelming results.

Palace should welcome back Dann and Tomkins for this one and while they were well-beaten at City last time out without that duo, they’d managed some impressive results just prior to that, winning at both Anfield and Stamford Bridge. Given the nature of Utd’s home games, Under 2.5 Goals is certainly of interest at 1.94, but we’re a little weary of backing that given the number of changes Mourinho is set to make. Instead, we’ll take a chance on Palace picking up a result by siding with them on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Palace +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.92

Hull v Tottenham

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

Hull followed their surprise 2-0 defeat at home to Sunderland, which virtually condemned them to relegation, with another poor performance as they went down 4-0 to Palace and no doubt can’t wait for the season to be over. Spurs, on the other hand, made it 11 wins in 12 as they thumped Leicester 6-1 to take their tally for the season to 83 points and should they win here it would have been enough to finish at least level on points with the title winners in four of the last seven seasons.

The defeat against Sunderland ended a run of six wins from seven unbeaten matches for Hull at the KCOM Stadium, all of which came once Marco Silva took over. They’ve hosted one top-six side in that run, beating Liverpool 2-0, but that’s only one of two home clean sheets for them all season and they could be vulnerable defensively against this rampant Spurs side.

Spurs made it four wins from five on their travels with their victory at Leicester and they’ve been pretty ruthless when going to the lesser sides this term, winning five of six unbeaten trips to bottom-seven sides, with four of these victories by more than one goal, whilst they led at the break in three. As a result, we’re backing Pochettino’s men to finish what’s been a good season for them in impressive fashion by siding with them -1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -1 Asian Handicap at 1.91

Leicester v Bournemouth

Monday May 22, 12:00am AEST

Leicester suffered back-to back defeats as they were thumped 6-1 by Spurs last time out, though a win here would see them usurp their visitors and achieve a top-half finish. Bournemouth are in impressive form as they made it three wins in four unbeaten games with their win against Burnley, though they’ve had a pretty soft run of fixtures with three of their last four at home as they’ve played Boro, Sunderland, Stoke and Burnley, so they should face a tougher test here.

Leicester had won all five of their home games under Shakespeare before the visit of Spurs and they’ll fancy their chances of getting back to winning ways here against easier opposition. They’re W8-D2-L1 when hosting sides outside the top-seven and should welcome back Huth for this one, so they look a fair price at 2.02.

Bournemouth have won only two of their last 12 on the road and both of those victories came over bottom-four sides in Sunderland and Swansea. They’ve been vulnerable defensively on their travels, conceding at least twice in 11 of their last 16 on the road and so Leicester should be able to take advantage, though with Drinkwater and Morgan out the Foxes may not be watertight themselves, making the home win and both teams to score certainly of interest at 3.5.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester Win and Both teams to score 3.5

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