Everton v Watford

Saturday May 13, 4:45am AEST

Everton are without a goal in three after they followed their 3-0 defeat against Chelsea with a 1-0 loss at Swansea, though they’re guaranteed to finish no lower than 7th with West Brom 13 points behind. Watford are similarly struggling for goals as like their hosts they failed to score for the third consecutive game as they went down 3-0 at Leicester and so they’ve dropped down to 15thbut they’re six points clear of Hull with a game in hand.

The defeat against Chelsea ended a run of eight straight home wins and while the Toffees’ other home defeat came against Merseyside rivals Liverpool, they’re W11-D2-L0 when hosting sides outside the top-five. They’ve scored at least three in six of the last seven of these and led at the break in six of their last eight at Goodison, so we’re expecting a big home win here.

Watford have lost and failed to score in their last five on road and have been beaten by more than one goal in six of their eight trips to top-half sides so far, failing to score in half of these games and trailing at the break in six. Since Everton have kept only one clean sheet in their last seven, we’re a little weary of backing a home win to nil, so instead we’re siding with the hosts -1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.31

West Brom v Chelsea

Saturday May 13, 5:00am AEST

West Brom ended a run of four straight defeats and five games without a goal as they managed a 2-2 draw at Burnley to remain in 8th, though Leicester and Southampton are hunting them down. Chelsea, on the other hand, were comfy 3-0 winners at home to Boro and so if they win here, they’ll be crowned champions with a couple of games to spare.

The Baggies have lost and failed to score in four of their last five at home and they’ve generally struggled when hosting the top teams this term, going W1-D1-L6 against top-half sides. They trailed at the break and failed to score in the last five of these defeats, so the Blues will be confident of wrapping up the title here.

Conte’s men have won four of their last five on the road and after a run of 11 games home or away without a clean sheet, they’ve now shut out their opponents in their last two. With the Baggies struggling for goals at the moment, and indeed throughout the season when they’ve hosted the top sides, we’re backing the champions-elect to win this without conceding and secure the title in style.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 2.2

Manchester City v Leicester

Saturday May 13, 9:30pm AEST

Man City thumped Palace 5-0 last time out to move within a point of Liverpool in 3rd, while they also have a game in hand on the Merseysiders. Leicester have shown no signs of downing tools since their Champions League elimination as they’ve won their last two without conceding, winning 1-0 at West Brom and easing past Watford 3-0 at the King Power last time out.

Chelsea are the only side to beat City at the Etihad this term, but with seven draws in their last 14 there, Guardiola will certainly feel his side have missed out on plenty of points. They’ve also taken a while to get going on their own turf, leading at the break in just three of their last nine and with each of those instances against bottom-five sides.

Leicester have picked up seven points from their five away games under Shakespeare but it’s telling that both of their defeats came in visits to top-seven sides as they lost 4-2 at Everton and 1-0 at Arsenal in their penultimate road game. They went in level at the break at the Emirates and since they’ve trailed at the break in just one of their 10 games since Ranieri’s sacking, we’re backing Draw/Man City HT/FT.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Man City HT/FT at 4.8

Bournemouth v Burnley

Sunday May 14, 12:00am AEST

Bournemouth twice came from behind to rescue a point at home to Stoke and in doing so made it seven points from their last three as they’re now up to 11th. Burnley followed up their first away win of the season with a draw against West Brom, which all but guaranteed their Premier League status with a couple of games to spare.

Bournemouth have been in impressive form at the Vitality Stadium, winning three of their last five there, with their only defeat in that time coming against league leaders Chelsea. When hosting sides below them in the table this term they’re W4-D2-L2 and so they look a fair price at 2.02 against a Burnley side that has struggled on its travels all season.

The Clarets took advantage of a number of injuries to key Palace players in their last road game but Bournemouth have no such issues, with their absentees largely long-term. Sean Dyche’s men have lost eight of their nine trips to teams between 7th and 17th, though they have managed to score in nine of their last 11 on their travels. Since Bournemouth’s only clean sheets in their last 10 at home came against strugglers Middlesbrough and Swansea, the home win and both teams to score is certainly of interest at 3.8, but we’re going to stick with Cherries at marginally odds-against for our best bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bournemouth Win at 2.02

Sunderland v Swansea

Sunday May 14, 12:00am AEST

It was a case of too little too late for Sunderland as they picked up their first win in 11, beating Hull 2-0. That win moved the Black Cats to within four points of Middlesbrough with a game in hand, so David Moyes’ side can at least avoid the wooden spoon. Swansea took advantage of Hull’s slip-up by beating Everton 1-0 at home to move above the Tigers by one point.

Sunderland are winless in nine at home and have failed to score in six of their last seven on their own turf. However, they’ve been decent when hosting bottom-seven sides this term, going W2-D1-L2 against such opposition and managing to score in all but one of these games. In what will be their last Premier League game at the Stadium of Light for at least a year, they’ll want to put on a good showing for their fans.

While Swansea have won five of their last seven at home, they’ve picked up only one point from their last seven on the road, including defeats at bottom-six sides Watford and Hull. The Swans have in fact lost three of their four trips to bottom-six sides so far and as a result we’re looking to take them on at 1.92. We’re backing the Black Cats to do Hull a favour and take points off Paul Clement’s side here.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Swansea at 1.93

Crystal Palace v Hull

Sunday May 14, 9:00pm AEST

Palace slumped to their third defeat on the bounce as they were thumped 5-0 at Man City, with injuries hampering them at the moment as they’re currently without Sakho, Cabaye, Tomkins and Dann. However, with Hull going down 2-0 against Sunderland, the Eagles remain four points ahead of their hosts and should they avoid defeat here, they’d guarantee their safety.

After a run of three wins in four unbeaten home games, Palace have lost their last two at Selhurst Park without scoring and whilst the first was a narrow defeat against Spurs, a 2-0 defeat against Burnley in their last outing there has to be a concern. That was Burnley’s first away win of the season, though Hull haven’t been much better on their travels.

The Tigers are winless on the road since their opening away match of the season, picking up just three points from their subsequent 17 away games. However, Marco Silva is yet to travel to a bottom-six side since he took over, though he’s won three of four such matches on home turf, and is responsible for two of those three points on the road, at Man Utd and Southampton. With the absentees for Palace, this looks a perfect opportunity for the Portuguese to pick up his first away win but we’re going to get the draw on-side by laying the hosts.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Crystal Palace at 2.06

West Ham v Liverpool

Sunday May 14, 11:15pm AEST

West Ham stretched their unbeaten run to five games with their impressive 1-0 win over Spurs, which secured their Premier League status for next season. Liverpool, on the other hand, were held to a goalless draw at home to Southampton as their bid for Champions League qualification is going down to the very end of the season.

The Hammers had struggled when hosting the top teams at the London Stadium prior to the victory over Spurs, losing against Arsenal, Utd, City and Chelsea, but they look to have finally found their feet at their new ground, picking up seven points from their last three there. Despite their struggles early on in the season, they managed to find the net against Arsenal, Chelsea and of course Spurs so they’ll fancy their chances of doing the same against Liverpool.

The Reds have managed narrow wins in their last three on the road, at Stoke, West Brom and Watford but we’re not sure they should be as short as 1.76 here, given the improvement in West Ham’s form. Klopp’s men have slipped up at the likes of Burnley, Bournemouth and Hull this term and so we’re weary of backing them at the prices. Instead, we’ll back both teams to score as Liverpool have kept only five away clean sheets all season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams To Score at 1.86

Tottenham v Manchester United

Monday May 15, 1:30am AEST

Spurs’ nine game winning run was brought to an abrupt halt as they went down 1-0 at the London Stadium to end their slim title hopes. Utd were also beaten last time out as they were beaten 2-0 at the Emirates, which ended their 25 game unbeaten run and means that they’ll probably have to win the Europa League if they’re to qualify for the Champions League next term.

Spurs have been imperious at White Hart Lane this term as they remain unbeaten there, winning their last 13 on their own turf. They’ve kept a clean sheet in seven of their last nine there, as well as in the last three visits from top-six sides as they beat Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City 2-0. They won this fixture 3-0 last term and so they look a fair price at 1.75, with the only question mark being whether they can get over the disappointment of the defeat at West Ham.

Utd have picked up only two points from their four visits to top-six sides so far and failed to score in any of these matches. After the criticism following the defeat at Arsenal there is a chance that Mourinho could be more ambitious here, but that would very much be going against the grain. Since his return to the Premier League with Chelsea in 2013/14, the Portuguese is W2-D7-L3 when travelling to top-four sides, with nine of these 12 games seeing fewer than three goals and six with fewer than two as his sides have failed to score in six of the last seven of these. Given, Spurs’ record this term, the home win and Under 2.5 Goals holds appeal, but we’re going to simply back Under 2.5 as we’re a little concerned that Spurs could fall away between now and the end of the season, as they did last term when their title bid was derailed.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.97

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