West Ham v Tottenham

Saturday May 6, 5:00pm AEST

West Ham drew for the third game in a row as they played out a 0-0 at Stoke which means they’ve dropped down to 15thhaving won just one of their last 11. Spurs, on the other hand, made it nine wins on the bounce with their 2-0 win in the North London derby to keep themselves within four points of Chelsea.

West Ham have won only five of their last 16 at the London Stadium and it’s telling that each of those victories came against sides currently in the bottom-seven. They’ve lost all four of their home matches against top-six sides,conceding 13 goals in the process and trailing at the break in three of these four defeats, so it’s unsurprising to see Spurs as short as 1.46 to continue their winning run.

Spurs haven’t conceded in four and have won their last three on the road, at Palace, Swansea and Burnley, meaning they’ve won six of seven unbeaten trips to bottom-half sides this term. The fact that Spurs have led at the break in only one of their last 13 away puts us off the W/W double and so instead we’re siding with Spurs -1.5 on the Asian Handicap as five of their seven away wins this term have been by more than one goal.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.2

Manchester City v Crystal Palace

Sunday May 6, 9:30am AEDT

City have been held to draws in their last two, at home to Man Utd and then at Boro, and so they remain in fourth, just a point ahead of their Manchester rivals. After a run of six wins in eight games, Palace have lost their last two, against Spurs and more worryingly at home to Burnley last time out and so they’ve dropped down from 12th to 16th, just six points from the drop zone.

Chelsea remain the only side to have beaten City at the Etihad this term, but Pep’s men have been held to draws in four of their last six on their own turf. They’ve kept just two clean sheets in their last eight at home, but they’ve been pretty effective when hosting the lesser sides, winning six of seven unbeaten games against bottom-eight sides. Those victories came despite the fact that City kept only one clean sheet across these games, whilst it’s worth noting that they led at the break in five of their victories.

It comes as no surprise that Palace’s slight dip has followed an injury to Mamadou Sakho, who played a massive part during the Eagles’ excellent run. Palace have won three of their last four on the road, including against Chelsea and Liverpool, but the fact that Cabaye, Tomkins and Dann are also expected to be missing for Palace means we expect City to pick up the three points. Nonetheless, Palace have netted in their last four on the road and the likes of Benteke and Zaha can cause this leaky City defence plenty of problems. We’re backing City to win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.35

Bournemouth v Stoke

Sunday May 7, 12:00am AEST

Bournemouth followed up their 4-0 thrashing of Boro with a 1-0 win at Sunderland and so they’ve moved all the way up to 10th in what is a tightly packed middle third of the table. Stoke are one point and two places behind the Cherries after they could only manage a goalless draw at home to West Ham, meaning they’ve won just one of their last eight.

Bournemouth have now won three of their last four at the Vitality Stadium, with the exception against Chelsea. They’ve been in impressive scoring form, netting 10 goals across these four games, but with just two clean sheets in their last nine on their own turf, they certainly give their opponents a chance. However, whether Stoke can take advantage of that remains to be seen as they’ve now failed to score in their last six on the road.

The Potters lost five of those games and their struggles in front of goal have largely been down to a lack of form for Berahino, who is still searching for his first Premier League goal since joining the club. However, the Potters have kept things pretty tight at the other end of the pitch as they’ve conceded more than twice in just one of their last seven on the road, with five of these seeing fewer than three goals. Whilst Bournemouth tend to score plenty against the lesser sides, three of their four home games against teams between 7th and 12th have seen fewer than two goals and so we’re going to take a chance on Under 2.5 Goals here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.16

Hull v Sunderland

Sunday May 7, 12:00am AEST

Hull followed up their 2-0 win over Watford with a battling 0-0 draw at Southampton last time out and so they remain in 17th, two points clear of Swansea. Sunderland were officially relegated after their 1-0 home defeat against Bournemouth, the ninth time they’ve failed to score in their last 10 as they remain rooted to the foot of the table and now some 13 points off their hosts.

Hull made it six wins from seven unbeaten home games with their victory over Watford and so they’re the shortest price they’ve ever been to win a Premier League game here at 1.5 and it’s hard to make a case against them. The Black Cats may at least have a chance of finding the net as Hull have kept only two home clean sheets all season.

Sunderland have managed to score in two of their last three trips to bottom-seven sides and with their survival chances now gone, they’ll surely throw some caution to the wind in the last few weeks of the season. Hull have the second worst defence in the division so this looks an excellent opportunity for the Black Cats to get a rare goal. We’re backing both teams to score, with the Hull win and both teams to score also of interest at 3.5.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 2.05

Burnley v West Brom

Sunday May 7, 12:00am AEST

Burnley picked up their first away win of the season last time out at Selhurst Park and so they’ve moved up to 14th, seven points clear of the relegation zone with three games to go. West Brom, on the other hand, are on the slide as they slumped to their fourth defeat on the bounce against Leicester and they’re now without a goal in five.

Burnley have won just one of their last four at home but three of these were against top-five sides and prior to that they’d won five straight at Turf Moor. Indeed, if we exclude top-six opposition the Clarets are W9-D1-L1 at home this term, keeping a clean sheet in four of the last five of these (each 1-0 victories). As a result, Sean Dyche’s men look a fair price at odds-against, particularly given the Baggies’ dip in form in recent weeks.

West Brom are winless in six on the road, failing to score in the last three of these, whilst they’ve kept only one clean sheet in their last 15 on their travels. Burnley know that a win here would guarantee their Premier League status for next season whereas the Baggies have been set for a comfy mid-table finish for a while now and appear to have taken their foot off the gas somewhat. We’re siding with the Clarets to continue their excellent home record.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Burnley at 2.24

Leicester v Watford

Sunday May 7, 12:00am AEST

Leicester ended their run of four straight away games with a 1-0 win at West Brom that saw them move up to 11th and they now return to the King Power in the hope of securing a top-half finish. Watford suffered their third defeat in four as they went down 1-0 at home to Liverpool meaning they’ve dropped down to 13th, trailing their hosts on goals difference alone.

Leicester have won all four of their home games at the King Power since Shakespeare took over, netting 10 goals in the process, while conceding only two. Indeed, the Foxes are an impressive W15-D3-L0 when hosting bottom-half sides since the start of last season and so we’d have them a touch shorter than 1.62 here.

Watford have struggled on their travels for some time now, losing nine of their last 11 on the road and failing to score in their last four. They’ve conceded at least twice in eight of their last 11 away and since eight of their 10 away defeats this term were by more than one goal, whilst Leicester’s last four home wins were all by a two goal margin, we’re siding with the champions -1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester -1 Asian Handicap at 2.1

Swansea v Everton

Sunday May 7, 2:30am AEST

Swansea followed up their 2-0 win over Stoke with a battling 1-1 draw at Old Trafford last time out to stay within two points of Hull. Everton were thumped 3-0 at home to Chelsea but they nonetheless remain in seventh, the position they look set to finish in this term with West Brom now some way back in eighth.

Swansea have won four of their last six at home, with their only defeat in that time against Mauricio Pochettino’s Spurs and that was a game they probably should have won as they were 1-0 up with three minutes left to play. Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente remain in impressive form having both scored a goal each in Swansea’s last two games and we think they can continue their good run at home against Everton.

The Toffees are winless in six on the road, netting only five goals across these and so they look too short at 2.7 against a Swansea side fighting for their lives. Ronald Koeman’s side have only managed goalless draws in their last two trips to bottom-six teams, at West Ham and Boro and so we’re looking to take them on, particularly as key man Romelu Lukaku has managed only one goal in Everton’s last eight on the road, compared with 13 in his last nine at Goodison Park. We’re backing Swansea 0 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Swansea 0 Asian Handicap at 2.04

Liverpool v Southampton

Sunday May 7, 10:30am AEST

Whilst they were blowing teams away earlier in the season, Liverpool have shown they can battle as well, coming from behind to win away at Stoke, edging out West Brom 1-0 and Watford by the same scoreline within their last four games. As a result they look well-placed to secure a top-four finish and will look to take advantage of Arsenal facing off with Man Utd by securing the three points here. They face a Southampton side that has picked up only one point from their last three after they were held to a goalless draw at home to Hull last time out.

Liverpool have picked up only one point from their last two at Anfield, against Palace and Bournemouth, as their defence continues to be a concern. Jurgen Klopp’s men have kept only four home clean sheets all season and three of those have come against top-five opposition as they’ve tended to struggle when they have the majority of possession against the lesser sides, preferring instead to play on the counter.

However, whether Southampton can cause them enough problems remains to be seen. The Saints have lost seven of their last 12 on the road and have picked up only one point from their six trips to top-seven sides so far. They have however manged to find the net in four of the last five of these, including in 4-2 and 2-1 defeats at Chelsea and Spurs respectively. As a result, the Liverpool win and both teams to score is certainly of interest at 3.2 and since Saints have trailed at the break in just four of their last 16 on the road while Liverpool have led at the half in only one of their last seven at home to sides outsides the top-six, we’re also backing the half-time draw.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.2

 BACK – Half Time Draw at 2.5

Arsenal v Manchester United

Monday May 8, 1:00am AEST

Arsenal were beaten 2-0 in the North London Derby and so will finish below Spurs for the first time since 1994/95, though they still have a chance of securing a top-four spot. Man Utd drew for the 14th time this season as they failed to hold on to a 1-0 lead at home to Swansea and so they remain in fifth, five points ahead of their hosts, though they have played a game more.

While the Gunners have lost five of their last six on the road, they’ve lost just one of their last 15 at the Emirates, beating Chelsea and drawing against both Spurs and City in that time. Indeed, Liverpool on the opening day of this season are the only top-six side to have beaten the Gunners at the Emirates since the start of last season (W4-D4-L1), though Wenger would have to win for the first time in 12 Premier League meetings with Mourinho if the Gunners are to boost their Champions League qualification hopes.

Utd are unbeaten in 11 road games since they were thumped 4-0 at Stamford Bridge and have drawn their other three trips to top-seven sides so far. Indeed, Mourinho has drawn half of his 18 visits to top-six sides since he returned to the Premier League with Chelsea in 2013/14 in games that have tended to be tight as 12 of these saw fewer than three goals, while eight saw fewer than two. That, together with the news that Bailly, Pogba, Smalling and Jones are all back in training means that we’re reluctant to back the Gunners at 2.04, with the draw looking the best value in the match outcome markets, but we’re going to make Under 2.5 Goals our standout selection.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.05

Chelsea v Middlesbrough

Tuesday May 7, 5:00am AEST

Chelsea have bounced back emphatically from their defeat at Old Trafford, beating Southampton 4-2 and Everton 3-0 in their last two to maintain their position at the top of the table. Boro, meanwhile, have given themselves an outside chance of survival by picking up four points from their last two, beating Sunderland at home and holding City to a draw, though they would have to win their last three to have any chance of staying up.

Antonio Conte will have been particularly pleased that his side managed a first clean sheet in 12 against Everton and the Blues are as short as 1.17 to make it 13 home wins in 14 against Boro, whilst they’ll also fancy their chances of another clean sheet against the league’s lowest scorers. Chelsea have won four of their five home games against bottom-seven sides, though they led at the break in just two of these and they may well be made to work hard to break down this stubborn Boro side.

Boro’s only goals in their last seven away games came against Hull, who have the second worst defence in the division, though they’ve generally kept things competitive as they’ve lost just one of their 17 away games this term by more than two goals. Indeed, they managed draws at the Emirates and Etihad earlier on in the season and went down by just a single goal at Utd and Spurs subsequently. They were level at the half in three of those four games and we think they can make Chelsea wait for their breakthrough here as well. We’re backing Draw/Chelsea HT/FT.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Chelsea HT/FT at 4.8


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