Swansea v Stoke

Sunday April 23, 12:00am AEST

Swansea won four of their first seven games under Paul Clement but just one point from their last six means that they’ve dropped down to 18th, two points from safety. Stoke, meanwhile, ended a run of four straight defeats with their 3-1 home win over Hull that saw them move back up to 11th as they bid for yet another top-half finish.

Swansea have managed only one goal in their last five but their home form remains decent as they’ve won three of their last five at the Liberty Stadium, with their sole defeat in that time coming against Spurs. When hosting teams outside the top six they’re W5-D2-L3 at home this term and given their current form at the Liberty, they look a fair price at 2.28.

Stoke have lost seven of their last nine away, failing to score in their last five on their travels. They’re just W2-D2-L3 when travelling to bottom-half teams this term, including defeats in the last two of these at Leicester and Burnley and as a result we’re siding with the Swans, who certainly have more to play for at this stage, to improve upon their already solid home record under Clement.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Swansea at 2.28

Hull v Watford

Sunday April 23, 12:00pm AEST

After back-to-back away defeats at Man City and Stoke, Hull return to the KCOM Stadium still in 17th, two points ahead of Swansea. Watford did Marco Silva’s side a favour in their last game as they beat the Swans  1-0, their third win in their last four, which means they’re up to 10th and should they finish there that would represent their highest ever Premier league finish.

Whilst they’ve picked up only one point from their last 15 away games, Hull have won five of six unbeaten home games since Marco Silva took over, though they remain vulnerable defensively as they kept just one clean sheet across these and have in fact shut out their opponents only three times all season. Only one of the sides they’ve hosted under Silva are above Watford in the table and so the Tigers look a touch short at 1.95 given theses sides’ respective league standings.

Watford have lost their last three on the road, but two of those were at Utd and Spurs, whilst the other was at a resurgent Palace side. Prior to that they’d managed a draw at Bournemouth and won at the Emirates, whilst they’re W5-D3-L3 when travelling to bottom-six sides since the start of last season. As a result, we’re backing them to pick up at least a point here and dent Hull’s survival hopes.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Hull at 1.96

West Ham v Everton

Sunday April 23, 12:00am AEST

After a run of five straight defeats, West Ham have found some form in recent weeks, picking up four points from games against Swansea and Sunderland to move back up to 13th and out of trouble. Everton, meanwhile, have been impressive in home victories against Leicester and Burnley in their last two to strengthen their hold on seventh and go level on points with Arsenal, though the Gunners do have two games in hand.

The win against Swansea was only the Hammer’s sixth at the London Stadium this term and it’s telling that each of those victories have come against sides currently below them in the table, while they’re just W0-D2-L7 when hosting teams above them in the league standings. Their games against such sides have generally produced plenty of goals as seven of these saw more than two strikes, while five had more than three.

Everton have lost only two of their last eight on the road but they’ve won just twice in this time as they’ve been held to draws at the likes of Middlesbrough and Hull. As such, we’re reluctant to back the Toffees at a short price, despite the Hammers’ poor record when hosting stronger teams. Instead, since both teams have scored in four of Everton’s last five away games, whilst four of their last nine on the road saw more than three goals, Over 2.5 Goals looks a big price at 1.8.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.92

Bournemouth v Middlesbrough

Sunday April 23, 12:00am AEST

After a tough run of fixtures that has seen them play each of the top-three in their last three matches, Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth will be hoping his side can put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone, with the gap currently at seven points. Middlesbrough, meanwhile, are six points from safety after their 2-1 defeat against Arsenal as they’re now without a win in 15.

Bournemouth had beaten West Ham and Swansea at home prior to their defeat against Chelsea and they’ve generally been pretty reliable when hosting the lesser sides this term, going W4-D0-L2 against bottom-nine teams. However, they remain vulnerable defensively as they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last eight at home, which will give some encouragement to a Boro side that has looked more ambitious in the last couple of weeks under Steve Agnew.

Boro have gone down 4-2 at Hull and 2-1 against Arsenal within their last three games and we think there could be goals in this one as well. Boro have picked up only two points from their last nine on the road, making Bournemouth look a fair price at 1.85 and we’re going to back that as well as backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.92, particularly as five of Bournemouth’s last eight at the Vitality Stadium have seen more than three strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bournemouth at 1.85

Burnley v Manchester United

Sunday April 23, 11:15am AEST

After a couple of away days that saw them pick up just a point from trips to Boro and Everton, Burnley return to Turf Moor, where they’ve been excellent all season. Man Utd put in what was probably their best performance under Mourinho as they beat league leaders Chelsea 2-0 at home to move up to fifth and very much within reach of a top-four spot.

Burnley are W10-D2-L4 at home this term, which is the seventh best home record in the division, ahead of Utd themselves. However, since they beat Liverpool early on in the season, they’ve struggled when hosting the top teams, picking up just one point from the visits of Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Spurs. They’ve nonetheless proven tough to beat as four of their five games against top-six sides have had fewer than three goals, while they haven’t trailed at the break in any of their home matches this term.

Utd are in impressive form on the road, winning six of seven unbeaten road games, though all but one of these were against bottom-half sides and with Burnley being so strong at home, the Clarets should pose them a tougher test. Given Burnley’s excellent first-half record, the half-time draw looks a solid bet at 2.25, whilst Draw/Man Utd (Half-Time/Full-Time) and the Utd Win and Under 2.5 Goals are also both of interest, particularly as Utd are in good defensive form having conceded just three goals in their last nine.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Half Time Draw at 2.25

 BACK – Man Utd Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 3.2

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

Monday April 24, 1:30am AEST

Liverpool have enhanced their top-four claims with victories in potentially tricky fixtures at Stoke and West Brom and they return to Anfield with the chance of going five points clear of Man City in fifth, though the Citizens will have a couple of games in hand. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, continue to impress as they came from behind to pick up a point at the King Power and with that moved up to 15th, seven points clear of the relegation zone.

Liverpool have won four of five unbeaten home games and whilst they beat Spurs and Arsenal during that run, the draw came against Bournemouth and that’s been somewhat indicative of their season as they’ve been excellent against the top teams but sloppy against some lesser sides. As well as that draw against Bournemouth, they’ve been held to a stalemate at home to West Ham and also lost against Swansea, so we’re reluctant to back them at a short price, particularly with Mane, Lallana and Henderson all once again out.

Palace have beaten Chelsea and Arsenal in recent weeks, and have won three of their last five on the road. Benteke, Townsend and Zaha should cause plenty of problems for this vulnerable Liverpool defence, which has kept only four home clean sheets all season, and unlike their hosts, the Eagles have been in good defensive form. They’ve certainly found their feet under Allardyce, keeping four clean sheets in their last seven, and even though they’ll be without Mamadou Sakho for this one, the form of Palace’s front three leaves us siding with them on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Palace +1 Asian Handicap at 2.12

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