Tottenham v Bournmouth

Saturday April 15, 9:30pm AEST

Tottenham continued their impressive record at White Hart Lane as they thumped Watford 4-0 to remain within seven points of Chelsea after the league leaders beat Bournemouth 3-1. That was the Cherries’ first defeat in six and so they remain a comfortable seven points clear of the drop zone in 15th.

Spurs have now won their last 11 at White Hart Lane, where they remain unbeaten this term. They’ve scored 33 goals during their current winning run and also led at the half in eight of their last 10 as they’ve proven extremely dominant in their last season at White Hart Lane.

Bournemouth picked up a point at Anfield in their last road game to cap off a marked improvement in their performance at the top teams as they also earned draws at St. Mary’s and Old Trafford in their road games prior to that. Earlier on in the season they’d been thumped 6-3 at Everton, 3-0 at Chelsea, 3-1 at Arsenal and 4-0 at Man City. Since Spurs have kept only one clean sheet in their last three at home while Bournemouth have netted in six of their last seven away, we’re backing Spurs to win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Spurs Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.75

Crytsal Palace v Leicester

Sunday April 16, 12:00am AEST

Crystal Palace bounced back from their 3-1 defeat at Southampton with an impressive 3-0 home win over Arsenal to make it five wins in their last six as they’re now up to 16th, six points clear of the danger zone and with a game in hand. Leicester suffered their first defeat under Shakespeare as they lost 4-2 at Everton, though they rested a couple of players with their Champions League in mind.

Palace have now won their last three at Selhurst Park without conceding, having lost 4-0 to lowly Sunderland prior to that in what’s been a remarkable turnaround for the Eagles. Their form from earlier on in the season is of little relevance as they look nothing like relegation candidates at the moment, with Sakho adding a great deal of stability to the defence and the likes of Zaha and Benteke looking threatening at the other end of the pitch.

Leicester have shipped six goals in their two away games under Shakespeare, though they have managed to score at least twice in all six matches since Ranieri’s departure. Since Palace’s last three games have all seen more than two goals, it’s somewhat surprising to see Over 2.5 Goals as big as 2.02, and we also wouldn’t put anyone off Palace to win and both teams to score at 4.2.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.02

Sunderland v West Ham

Sunday April 16, 12:00am AEST

Sunderland suffered their sixth defeat in seven win-less games as they were thumped 3-0 by Man Utd and they’ve also failed to score across that run. They’re now 10 points from safety and in need of a miracle if they’re to avoid the drop. West Ham, meanwhile, ended a run of six straight defeats as they beat Swansea 1-0 at the London Stadium to move back up to 14th and ease some of the pressure on Slaven Bilic.

Sunderland have had a tough run of fixtures at home as they’ve hosted four top-half sides in their last five at the Stadium of Light, but they’ve fared pretty well against the lesser teams as they’re W3-D1-L1 in their last five at home to sides outside the top-nine. They’ll need three points here if they’re to have any hope of staying up.

West Ham have lost their last three on the road, conceding eight goals in the process and they’ve struggled defensively on their travels all season, keeping just one away clean sheet. As a result, this looks like a good opportunity for the Black Cats to end their long goal drought. Since the Hammers have lost at bottom-six sides Hull and Bournemouth within their last three away games, we’re taking them on at 2.32, particularly as Mark Noble is also suspended and they’ve lost all four games he’s missed this season while conceding 10 times.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sunderland +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.95

Everton v Burnley

Sunday April 16, 12:00am AEST

After tough away trips to Liverpool and Man Utd, Everton bounced back with a 4-2 home win over Leicester to go level on points with Arsenal, though they have played two games more. Burnley played out a goalless draw at Middlesbrough last time out as they’re struggling for goals at the moment, netting only once in their last four.

Everton have now won their last seven at Goodison Park, scoring 26 goals during this winning run and leading at the break in the last six as they’ve proven extremely dominant. They’ve also kept five clean sheets in their last seven on their own turf and they’ll be confident of extending that run against a goal-shy Burnley side, but we’re not sure they’ll be able to.

The Clarets are still searching for their first away win of the season. They have however managed to score in their last five trips to top-half sides, including the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Spurs, whilst they didn’t trail at the break in any of those games. With Everton’s defence missing Coleman and Funes Mori they are definitely weaker, though Ashley Williams does return from suspension, and as a result we’re going to lay Everton to win the first half and also back both teams to find the net.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Everton to Win the 1st Half at 2.0

BACK – Both Teams to Score at 2.15

Stoke v Hull

Sunday April 16, 12:00am AEST

Stoke have lost their last two at home, but those were in tough games against Chelsea and Liverpool, and prior to that they were unbeaten in eight on their own turf. If we exclude top-six sides they’re W6-D4-L1 at home this term and so they look about the right price at 2.0, though with little left for play for it’s not one we’re keen on backing.

Hull have picked up only one point from their last 14 away games, conceding 10 in their last three on the road but should be able to recall key players in Abel Hernandez and Tom Huddlestone for this clash. This is also their easiest away fixture in some time as they’ve travelled to six of the top-eight within their last seven, whilst the other was against a resurgent Leicester.

As a result there’s reason to believe that their away form may improve between now and the end of the season given their excellent results at home. We expect this to be a cagey affair as Hull haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 15 on the road, while Stoke have scored more than once in just one of their last six at home, and that’ll certainly bring the draw into play.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Draw at 3.6

Watford v Swansea

Sunday April 16, 12:00am AEST

After back-to-back home wins over Sunderland and West Brom, Watford were beaten 4-0 at Spurs, though they remain in 10thSwansea were also beaten as they lost 1-0 at West Ham but that was their fourth defeat in five winless games and so they’re back down to 18th, two points behind Hull and now six behind Palace, who also have a game in hand.

After defeats in their opening two home games of the season against Chelsea and Arsenal, Watford have since impressed at Vicarage Road, losing just three of their last 14 there and winning their last two. When hosting bottom-half sides they’re W4-D4-L1 in games that have tended to be pretty tight as six of these saw fewer than three goals.

Swansea have lost their last five on the road and whilst the first two of those were in tough fixtures at Man City and Chelsea, the last three have been against fellow bottom-seven sides and they managed only one goal across these. As a result, Under 2.5 Goals looks a solid bet at 1.81, whilst we’re also going to side with the Hornets on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.81

BACK – Watford 0 Asian Handicap at 1.81

Southampton v Manchester City

Sunday April 16, 2:30am AEST

Southampton picked up an impressive 3-1 win over Palace in their last home game and that form looks even better after the Eagles made it five wins in their last six with their victory over Arsenal. Saints have hosted only three of the top-six to date, losing 2-0 against Chelsea and 4-1 against Spurs, whilst they managed a goalless draw with Liverpool. However, they look in much better form now than at the time of those defeats and last season they fared particularly well when hosting the top-four as they drew with Leicester, beat Arsenal 4-0 and Man City themselves 4-2.

Manchester City have won only four of their last nine on the road, with each of those victories coming over sides currently in the bottom-seven. A 3-1 win over Hull at home last weekend can be largely discounted given the Tigers away struggles and the absence of several of their best players. Prior to that City were winless in four and as a result they look too short at 1.8 against an in-form Southampton side. The Saint should welcome back their star striker, Gabbiadini, to the starting lineup and have a history of producing some impressive results when hosting the top teams. We’ll be laying Pep’s men at that price.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Man City at 1.81

West Brom v Liverpool

Sunday April 16, 10:30pm AEST

West Brom slumped to their fourth defeat in six games as they were beaten 1-0 at home to Southampton, the fifth time they’ve failed to score during their current poor run. Liverpool, meanwhile, came from behind to win 2-1 at Stoke and remain in third, though they remain vulnerable defensively as they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last 13.

After a run of four straight home wins, West Brom have lost two of their last three at the Hawthorns, against Palace and Southampton. However, they’ve managed some impressive results at home to the top teams as they’ve drawn against Spurs and beat Arsenal 3-1, whilst they also beat Arsenal  and Man Utd last term and drew with Spurs and Liverpool themselves.

The win over Stoke was Liverpool’s first in their last six on the road as they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in that run. They’re just W1-D1-L3 when travelling to teams between 8th and 15th this term and with Mane, Lallana and Henderson all out once again, the three players that Liverpool’s points per game drops the most when they haven’t played since the start of last season, the Reds look a solid lay at odds-on.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Liverpool at 1.92

Manchester United v Chelsea

Monday April 17, 1:00am AEST

Man Utd ended their run of draws with a 3-0 win at Sunderland and so they’ve moved up to fifth, just four points behind their city rivals with a game in hand. Chelsea, meanwhile, continued their march towards the title as they won 3-1 at Bournemouth, though the fact that they’re without a clean sheet in nine will be a concern for Conte.

Utd have drawn five of their last six at Old Trafford, though they nonetheless remain unbeaten there since a 2-1 defeat against Man City, some 14 home games ago. They’ve managed draws against Arsenal and Liverpool since, whilst they edged out Spurs 1-0. That’s generally typical of Mourinho as 13 of his 18 Premier League home games against top-four sides have had fewer than three goals, with at least one team failing to score in 12, and having suffered a humiliating 4-0 defeat at Chelsea earlier on in the season, he’ll be wary of a repeat.

Since their 3-0 defeat at the Emirates which sparked a remarkable turnaround for the Blues, they’ve beaten City, lost at Spurs and drawn at Liverpool in trips to top-six sides. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those games though their visits to Spurs and Liverpool nonetheless saw fewer than three goals. Conte would probably be happy with a point here but the draw looks on the short side at 3.25 so instead we’ll side with the league leaders on the Asian Handicap given their superior performance over the course of the season and Utd’s struggles at home in recent times.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chelsea 0 Asian Handicap at 2.01

Middlesbrough v Arsenal

Tuesday April 18, 5:00am AEST

Both these sides are in dire need of a win after Middlesbrough’s goalless draw against Burnley stretched their winless run to 14 games, whilst the Gunners were humiliated 3-0 at Selhurst Park. Boro have drawn four of their last six at home as they’ve proven tough to beat at the Riverside, losing just four of their last 11 there. However, if you can’t score you can’t win, and they’ve lost all four of their home games against top-six sides so far, trailing at the break in each of these defeats and conceding three times in the last two, against Liverpool and Utd.

Arsenal have now lost their last four on the road, conceding three times in each of these defeats. However, last time out they ran into a Palace side in excellent form under Allardyce and they should have less to fear against this Boro team. The Gunners have won 13 of 14 unbeaten trips to bottom-three sides since 2012/13, leading at the break in nine of these victories and since they’ve also led at the break in five of their six away wins this term. Furthermore, they’re unbeaten in 14 trips to promoted teams in this time with 11 wins including eight by more than one goal. We’re backing Wenger’s men to bounce back by being ahead at half-time and full-time.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Arsenal/Arsenal HT/FT at 2.4

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