EPL Season 2016/17: Week 32

Tottenham v Watford

Saturday April 8, 9:30pm AEST

Spurs mounted a miraculous comeback against Swansea in midweek as three late goals saw them triumph 3-1 and remain within seven points of Chelsea at the top. Watford made it back-to-back victories as they beat West Brom 2-0 at home and so they move a comfortable nine points from the relegation zone.

The Hornets will do well to get anything from this, however, as Spurs have won their last 10 at White Hart Lane, where they remain unbeaten this season. They led at the break in seven of their last nine there, whilst they kept a clean sheet in six of these. When hosting sides outside the top-seven they’re W10-D1-L0, keeping seven clean sheets, though they were level at the break in four of these as it took them a while to break down stubborn Palace, Sunderland, Burnley and Boro sides.

Watford have lost seven of their last nine on the road and failed to score in five of the last seven. They’ve lost nine of 10 trips to top-six sides since the start of last season and also failed to net in seven of these, whilst they trailed at the break in all three of their defeats against such opposition this term. At a slightly bigger price, we’re going to opt for the Spurs win to nil rather than the W/W double, particularly as Spurs have occasionally taken a while to break sides down at the Lane.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Spurs Win to Nil at 2.1

Manchester City v Hull

Sunday April 9, 12:00am AEST

Manchester City went down 2-1 at Stamford Bridge in midweek meaning they’re without a win in four and now lead Arsenal and Man Utd by just four points, while both of those have a game in hand on them. Hull, on the other hand, made it three wins in their last four with their crucial 4-2 win against Boro and they’re now two points clear of the drop zone.

Man City have drawn three of their last four at home and have in fact won just four of their last 11 at the Etihad, keeping only two clean sheets in that time. They’ve hosted four bottom-six sides so far, beating West Ham 3-1, Sunderland and Swansea 2-1, whilst they were held to a 1-1 draw by Boro. As a result, it may not be as simple for City as odds of 1.22 suggest.

Hull have had a tough run of away fixtures since Marco Silva took over as they’ve gone to Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Everton, whilst the other was at Leicester, who are looking much more like a top-six side again under Shakespeare. The Tigers have managed only one goal across these, but they didn’t concede more than twice at Arsenal, Utd or Chelsea and they in fact managed a goalless draw at Old Trafford. We’re siding with Marco Silva’s in-form side +2 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Hull +2 Asian Handicap at 2.08

West Ham v Swansea

Sunday April 9, 12:00am AEDT

West Ham slumped to their fifth defeat on the bounce as they were beaten 3-0 at the Emirates and so they’ve now dropped down to 15th, just five points clear of their visitors Swansea, who occupy the final relegation spot. Paul Clement will be wondering how that’s still the case as his side had a 1-0 lead in the 87th minute against Spurs in midweek but went on to lose 3-1.

West Ham have picked up only one point from their last four at home, trailing at the break in each of these and conceding 11 goals across them. They’ve won just five times at the London Stadium all season, with four of these by 1-0 scorelines. The strength of the form of those victories can also be questioned as after beating Bournemouth in their opening home game of the season, they’ve since beaten bottom of the league Sunderland, Burnley, who have been poor travelers all season, Hull before Marco Silva took over and Palace in the midst of a run of six defeats in seven winless games.

Swansea won their opening road game under Clement at Anfield, but since then they’ve lost all four of their away games. However, two of these were at Man City and Chelsea, both of whom they managed to score against and we think they can have plenty of joy against this leaky Hammers defence. We’ll be laying the hosts at 2.18.

Betting Strategy

LAY – West Ham at 2.18

Stoke v Liverpool

Sunday April 9, 12:00am AEST

Stoke suffered their third straight defeat as they were beaten 1-0 at Burnley and as a result they’ve dropped down to 12thLiverpool, meanwhile, could only manage a draw at home to Bournemouth and so they remain in third, though they’ve played two games more than Arsenal and Man Utd, who are both chasing their top-four spot.

Stoke have won two of their last three at home, but both those victories came over bottom-five sides and they’ve struggled when hosting the tops teams all season. They’ve picked up only one point from the visits of Man City, Spurs, Man Utd and Chelsea, which is in contrast to last season when Spurs were the only top-five team to beat them.

However, Liverpool are winless in five on the road and half of their six away wins this term have come over bottom-five sides, so we’re looking to take them on, particularly as Mane and Lallana are both likely to be out once again. At odds-on, they look a solid lay, particularly as they’ve kept just three away clean sheets this term, whilst Stoke have conceded more than once in only two of their last 13 at home.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Liverpool at 1.99

West Brom v Southampton

Sunday April 9, 12:00am AEST

After three away games in their last four, the latest of which they lost 2-0 at Watford, West Brom will be glad to return to the Hawthorns as they bid to secure eighth place. Southampton are seven points behind them in ninth after their 3-1 win against Palace, whilst they also have two games in hand on the Baggies.

West Brom are in excellent form at the Hawthorns, winning eight of their last 10 there, including last time out against Arsenal. Three of the four instances of them failing to win within their last 12 home games came against top-six sides and as a result they look a fantastic price at 3.15 to continue their excellent run in front of their own fans.

Southampton have lost four of their last six on the road as they’ve lost at the likes of Swansea, Palace and Hull this term, whilst they’ve kept only one clean sheet in their last seven on their travels, conceding 12 times across these games. Gabbiadini is unlikely to feature and so West Brom look to be overpriced on the basis of a couple of poor results on their travels. We’re siding with Tony Pulis’ side on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Brom +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.85

Middlesbrough v Burnley

Sunday April 9, 12:00am AEST

Middlesbrough look set for relegation as their 4-2 defeat at Hull stretched their win-less run to 13 games and leaves them seven points from safety. Burnley, on the other hand, got back to winning ways as they beat Stoke 1-0 at home to move back up to 14th and continue their excellent record at Turf Moor.

Whilst they haven’t won a lot, Boro have proven tough to beat at home as they’ve lost only four of their last 10 at the Riverside and three of those defeats came against top-six sides. As a result, they’ll be hopeful of ending a run of four defeats in five games at all venues, but we’re not sure they should be as short as 2.44 for the three points.

Burnley are still searching for their first away win of the season but there have certainly been signs of improvement from the Clarets as they’ve managed draws at Hull and Sunderland within their last four road games, whilst they haven’t lost any of their last nine on their travels by more than one goal, despite going to the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Spurs in that time. They’ve drawn two of their three trips to bottom-four sides to date and as a result we’re siding with the Clarets +0.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Burnley +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.92

Bournemouth v Chelsea

Sunday April 9 2:30am AEST

Bournemouth picked up an impressive point at Anfield to extend their unbeaten run to five games and move up to 13thChelsea, meanwhile, bounced back from their surprise 2-1 defeat against Palace with a 2-1 win of their own over Man City to maintain their seven point lead at the top, though they have looked a little more vulnerable in recent weeks as they’re without a clean sheet in eight.

Bournemouth have won their last two at home and encouragingly for Eddie Howe they kept their first clean sheet in seven at the Vitality last time out with their 2-0 win over Swansea. Since their opening day defeat against Man Utd, the Cherries have fared pretty well when hosting the top teams as they managed draws against both Spurs and Arsenal, whilst they beat Liverpool, though they lost 2-0 against City the last time one of the top-six visited.

Chelsea have won just half of their last six away, keeping only one clean sheet during that run and they’ve in fact won only one of their last eight on the road by more than one goal. Given the defensive vulnerability Chelsea have started to show and since Bournemouth have scored in all but three of their home games this term, we’re backing both teams to score and we’re also siding with the hosts on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.93

BACK – Bournemouth +1 Asian Handicap at 1.9

Sunderland v Manchester United

Sunday April 9, 10:30am AEDT

Sunderland look doomed after their 2-0 defeat against Leicester, which means they’re now 10 points from safety and rooted to the foot of the table. Man Utd, meanwhile, continue to draw games as the 1-1 with Everton was their sixth stalemate in nine games, though their unbeaten run is now at 20.

The Black Cats have now failed to score in their last six and are without a goal in four at the Stadium of Light. They have however managed some decent results against the top teams as they’ve drawn against Liverpool and Spurs, while they were edged out 1-0 by Chelsea and 2-0 by City. However, they’re in dire form at the moment and with David Moyes under severe pressure after his comments to a member of the media, it’s difficult to envisage the Black Cats mounting one of their miraculous end of season finishes to avoid relegation this time around.

The Red Devils have won five of six unbeaten road games and have been very reliable when travelling to the lesser sides in recent times as they’ve won seven of their eight trips to bottom-half sides this term, leading at the break in five of these victories and with five also by more than one goal. Since Sunderland have trailed at the break in their last five home defeats, while Utd have led at the half in six of their last eight on the road, we’re backing Utd/Utd Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Man Utd/Man Utd HT/FT at 2.2

Everton v Leicester

Monday April 10, 1:00am AEST

Everton bounced back from the derby disappointment with a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford in midweek, whilst Leicestercontinued their excellent form under Craig Shakespeare as they won 2-0 against Sunderland, their fifth straight victory since Ranieri’s departure, with any relegation concerns now well and truly dispelled.

Everton are in excellent form at Goodison Park, winning their last six there and scoring 22 goals. Indeed, they’ve lost only once on their own turf all season and that was as a result of a Saido Mane injury-time winner. They’ve led at the break in their last five at home, whilst they’ve kept a clean sheet in five of their last six.

Leicester won their opening road game under Shakespeare as they beat West Ham 3-2 but this should prove a much tougher test and they struggled in this sort of fixture even last term in their title winning season as they went W1-D4-L1 at teams between 5th and 10th. With a trip to Atletico Madrid on Wednesday night and now that Premier League status is secure, we could see a rotated side here and as a result we’re going to side with Everton -1 on the Asian Handicap as they’ve won their last six at home by more than one goal.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Everton -1 Asian Handicap at 2.35

Crystal Palace v Arsenal

Tuesday April 11, 5:00am AEST

Crystal Palace’s run of four straight wins was brought to an end as they were beaten 3-1 at Southampton and so they remain in 16th, three points clear of the relegation zone with a game in hand over Swansea. Arsenal, meanwhile, picked up a much-needed 3-0 win over West Ham to move up to fifth and within sight of a top-four spot after both Liverpool and Man City dropped points in midweek.

After a run of eight defeats in nine home games, Palace have since won their last two at Selhurst Park, beating both Boro and Watford 1-0. However, they’ve lost all six of their home games to top-eight sides to date, though they did at least manage to score against Utd, City and Liverpool. They managed to score in defeat in this fixture last term as they went down 2-1 and they’ll fancy their chances of netting against a Gunners side that’s kept only one clean sheet in their last 10 away.

Arsenal have lost five of their last seven on the road, but each of those defeats came against top-eight sides and they’re W6-D2-L0 when travelling to the rest of the division as they scored 24 goals across these. It was a similar story last season as they were W7-D2-L1 at bottom-half sides and so the Gunners look a fair price at 1.82, with Arsenal to win and both teams to score also of interest at 3.3.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Arsenal at 1.82

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