Watford v West Brom

Wednesday April 5, 4:45pm AEST

Watford picked up their first win in five as they beat struggling Sunderland 1-0 at home to move back up to 12th. West Brom battled for a point at Old Trafford to go with their win over Arsenal prior to the international break and with Everton losing at Anfield and going to Utd next, Tony Pulis will regard this as an excellent opportunity to close the gap to the Toffees in seventh.

Watford’s win over Sunderland was only their second in seven at home, with both these victories coming over bottom-six sides. When hosting teams between 6th and 12th they’re just W1-D1-L3 this term and they haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of these, with four seeing more than three goals. Indeed, they’ve been vulnerable at the back all season, keeping only three clean sheets in their 15 games at Vicarage Road. 

The Baggies have lost just five of their last 13 on the road and each of these defeats came at sides currently above them in the table. If we exclude top-seven sides then they’re W3-D5-L1 on their travels this term and so we’re looking to take Watford on at 2.6, particularly as they look set for mid-table mediocrity whilst West Brom are pushing for their best ever Premier League finish.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Brom 0 Asian Handicap at 2.19

Burnley v Stoke

Wednesday April 5, 4:45am AEST

Burnley’s defeat against Spurs means that they’re now win-less in seven and have dropped down to 15th, five points clear of the relegation zone. Stoke, meanwhile, have suffered back-to-back defeats as they were beaten at home by Chelsea and at Leicester, though they remain in ninth, the same position they’ve finished in the last three seasons.

The defeat against Spurs was only Burnley’s third in their last 14 at Turf Moor, and each of those losses have come against top-six teams. They’ve been very strong against slightly weaker opposition, winning all five of their home games against teams between seventh and 13th, keeping three clean sheets in these and also leading at the break in three of their victories.

The defeat at Leicester was Stoke’s sixth in their last eight on the road and they’re now without a goal in four on their travels. They’ve had a tough run of fixtures as they’ve gone to six of the top-eight during that time, but it won’t get any easier for them here as Burnley have the seventh best home record in the Premier League. We’re backing the Clarets to make it six wins in their last eight at Turf Moor.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Burnley at 2.48

Leicester v Sunderland

Wednesday April 5, 4:45am AEST

Leicester continued their remarkable turnaround under Craig Shakespeare as their 4-0 win over Stoke was their fourth on the bounce since Claudio Ranieri’s departure and so they’re up to 13th, just three points off Stoke in ninth and with a game in hand. Sunderland, on the other hand, suffered their fourth defeat in five at Watford and so are now eight points from safety.

Leicester have now won their last three home games and even with their struggles earlier on in the season, it’s only sides currently in the top eight that have beaten them at the King Power. When hosting teams outside the top-eight they’re W16-D4-L0 since the start of last season and that together with their current form suggests they should probably be a bit shorter than 1.55.

Sunderland have lost 10 of their last 12 away, failing to score in three of the last four of these and indeed seven of their last eight at all venues. They’ve trailed at the break in four of their last five away defeats and since the Foxes have led at the break in 11 of their last 12 home wins, we’re backing Leicester/Leicester HT/FT as we expect the champions to push Sunderland a step closer to a relegation that has looked likely for some time now.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Leicester/Leicester HT/FT at 2.4

Manchester United v Everton

Wednesday April 5, 5:00am AEST

Manchester United were once again frustrated as they were held to a goalless draw against West Brom, their fifth stalemate in eight games. As a result they remain in fifth, three points clear of their visitors in seventh, though they do have two games in hand after Everton were well-beaten in the Merseyside Derby at Anfield.

Utd have in fact drawn four of their last five at Old Trafford, including against the likes of Bournemouth and Hull. Indeed, West Ham, Burnley and Stoke have all managed to pick up a point at Old Trafford this term as the Red Devils have scored more than once in just three of their last 12 on their own turf and so at first glance they may look a touch short at 1.59.

However, the Toffees have gone to four of the sides above them so far, managing a 1-1 draw at City, whilst they were thumped 5-0 at Stamford Bridge, lost 3-2 at Spurs and 3-1 at Liverpool. With Ibrahimovic, Pogba and Herrera likely to return for Utd, we expect them to get back to winning ways against an Everton side that looked toothless against Liverpool. The Toffees have trailed at the break in six of their seven away defeats this term, whilst Utd have led at the half in five of their six home wins under Mourinho, so we’re backing Utd/Utd HT/FT.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Man Utd/Man Utd HT/FT at 2.48

Swansea v Tottenham

Thursday April 6, 4:45am AEST

Swansea had to settle for a goalless draw at home to Boro meaning they remain in 17th, just a point ahead of Hull now. Tottenham, meanwhile, made it four victories on the bounce as they were impressive 2-0 winners at Burnley and with Chelsea dropping points against Palace and facing a tough game against Man City, Pochettino’s men have an excellent opportunity to put some pressure on the Blues.

After a heavy defeat against Arsenal in their opening home game under Paul Clement, the Swans have since won three of four unbeaten games at the Liberty Stadium, beating Southampton, Leicester and Burnley. They remain vulnerable defensively, however, as they’ve kept only two clean sheets in their last 15 overall but with Llorente and Sigurdsson in excellent form, they’ve scored in all but three of their 10 games under Clement, with seven of these games seeing more than two goals and four with more than three.

Spurs have won only three of their last 11 on the road and have kept just three clean sheets in their last 12 away, making both teams to score of interest at 1.8. Spurs have lost only three times on their travels, each at top-six sides, but they’ve been held to draws at the likes of Sunderland and Bournemouth so they look about the right price at 1.74. We’re sticking with both teams to net and for those looking to get the visitors on-side we’d suggest Spurs to win and both teams to score at 3.6.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.8

Arsenal v West Ham

Thursday April 6, 4:45am AEST

Arsenal twice came from behind to rescue a point against Man City, whom they still trail by seven points but with a game in hand. West Ham, meanwhile, slumped to their fourth consecutive defeat as they were beaten 2-1 at Hull and so they’ve dropped down to 14th, now just six points clear of the relegation zone.

While the Gunners have lost five of their last seven away, they’ve won six of eight at home and are W13-D2-L2 when hosting bottom-half sides since the start of last season. However, they’ve kept just five clean sheets in 14 at the Emirates this term, whilst they’ve led at the break in only two of their last eight there. What’s more Koscielny picked up an injury against Man City and is unlikely to be available, so it’s difficult to envisage this being a comfy win to nil for Wenger’s men.

The Hammers have conceded at least twice in five of their last six, whilst six of their last nine have featured more than three strikes, so we could see plenty of goals. They’ve lost only three of their last nine on the road and have managed score draws at the likes of Man Utd and Liverpool, so we’re reluctant to take a short price about an Arsenal side with just one win in six. Instead, since the Hammers have scored in all five of their trips to top-six sides but have kept only one away clean sheet all season, with both teams scoring in 12 of their 15 away games and eight having more than three goals, we’re backing Over 3.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.25

Hull v Middlesbrough

Thursday April 6, 4:45am AEST

Hull picked up their second win in three games as they came from behind to beat West Ham and move within a point of Swansea and safety. With the Swans playing Spurs, this looks a great chance for Marco Silva’s men to move out of the relegation zone as they host a Boro side that’s now win-less in 12 and scored only once in six after their bore draw with Swansea.

 

Hull have been in impressive form at home, losing only one of their last 10 at the KCOM Stadium and winning four of their last five there. Indeed, if we exclude top-nine sides then Hull are W5-D2-L0 at home this term and so they look a fair price at odds-against. However, the Tigers remain vulnerable defensively as they’ve kept only one home clean sheet all season, with both teams scoring in eight of their last 10 at home and seven of these seeing more than two goals.

Boro looked much more ambitious in their first game since Karanka’s departure as they went down 3-1 against Utd, but they reverted to type against Swansea. However, since they’re now five points from safety they must surely realise that it’s wins rather than draws that they need to keep themselves in the division. Against a vulnerable Hull defence they should be more positive and so as well as backing the Tigers, we’re also siding with both teams to score. 

Betting Strategy

BACK – Hull Win at 2.08

BACK – Both Teams to Score at 2.16

Southampton v Crystal Palace

Thursday April 6, 4:45am AEST

Southampton were no doubt ruing the absence of Manolo Gabbiadini against Bournemouth as they were held to a goalless draw and so remain in 10th. The Italian is also likely to miss the visit of an in-form Crystal Palace side, who made it four wins on the bounce with their stunning 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge that saw them move up to 16th, now four points above the drop zone with a game in hand.

Having lost only one of their first eight at home, Southampton have now lost three of their last five at St Mary’s,conceding nine goals in the process. As a result, they look very much on the short side at 1.84 against a red-hot Palace side. It’s a price that we’re very reluctant to back given they look vulnerable defensively without van Dijk and less threatening at the other end of the pitch without Gabbiadini.

Palace have now won three of their last four away as they became the first side outside the top-seven to beat West Brom at the Hawthorns and ended a run of 10 straight wins for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. They’ve conceded only one goal in their last four in what’s been a remarkable turnaround in their form and we think they can continue their impressive run here. We’re backing them to pick up at least a point.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Southampton at 1.85

Liverpool v Bournemouth

Thursday April 6, 5:00am AEST

Liverpool continued their excellent home record in the Merseyside Derby as they eased past Everton 3-1 to move up to third. Bournemouth, meanwhile, made it seven points from their last three as they managed a goalless draw at Southampton to move up to 11th as they bid for a top-half finish having looked like they might be relegation-threatened a few weeks ago.

Liverpool have won 11 of 15 at Anfield this term, with Swansea the only side to beat them there. However, their defence remains a concern as they’ve kept only four home clean sheets all season. Quick starts have been a hallmark of their play under Jurgen Klopp as they’ve led at the break in nine of their 11 home wins and with Coutinho looking back to his best against Everton, this could be a long evening for a Bournemouth defence that’s the worst of anyone outside the bottom four.

The Cherries have won just twice on the road all season but they managed to score in all but two of their last 10 on the road, and one of those was at Chelsea. They’ve picked up only two points from 10 trips to top-six sides since the start of last season and they in fact failed to score in six of these, which puts us off backing them to find the net somewhat. Instead, since they trailed at the break in seven of their eight defeats against these teams, we’re backing Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT at 2.05

Chelsea v Manchester City

Thursday April 6, 5:00am AEST

Chelsea’s march towards the title suffered an unexpected blow as they were beaten 2-1 at home by Palace. They remain seven points clear of Spurs, but defeat here for the Blues would certainly let Pochettino’s men back in the title race. Manchester City, meanwhile, drew for the third game on the bounce as they twice let a lead slip at the Emirates and so trail Chelsea by 11 points heading in to this one.

Chelsea have won 10 of their last 11 at Stamford Bridge but they’ve been a little more vulnerable defensively recently. While they kept five clean sheets in the first six of these, they’ve shut out their opponents in only one of their last five at home. Indeed, they’re without a clean sheet in seven at home and away, though they won despite conceding at home to both Spurs and Arsenal, whilst they also thumped Utd 4-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier on in the season.

City have won three of their last four away but each of these victories have come over sides currently in the bottom half and after their victory at Old Trafford early on in the season they’ve since lost and failed to score in three of their other four trips to top-seven sides. Indeed, the Citizens have struggled somewhat against their competitors for European spots all season as they’re just W2-D4-L4 against top-seven teams and with that in mind Chelsea look a fair price at 2.42 to get back to winning ways.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chelsea at 2.42


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