Liverpool v Everton

Saturday April 1, 11:30pm AEDT

The Premier League returns with a bang as we have the second edition of the Merseyside Derby this term, with Everton eager to exact revenge for their agonising defeat at Goodison Park following Saido Mane’s injury-time winner. Liverpoolcurrently sit in fourth, but they have played a couple of games more than United and Arsenal, while Everton are six points behind them in seventh.

Liverpool have won 10 of 14 at Anfield this term, with Swansea the only side to beat them there as they’re W5-D2-L0 against top-half visitors, beating the likes of City, Spurs and Arsenal. However, their defence remains a concern as they’ve kept only four home clean sheets all season and it won’t get any easier for Klavan and Matip as they’ll have to deal with the league’s top scorer, Romelu Lukaku.

The Belgian has nine goals in his last six in the league, while Everton managed 17 across these games and so will expect to at least find the net here. The Toffees have gone to three of the sides above them so far, managing a 1-1 draw at City, whilst they were thumped 5-0 at Stamford Bridge and lost 3-2 at Spurs in their last road game. They haven’t won at Anfield since 1999 and we can’t see them ending that run here, though we think they can get on the scoresheet. We’re backing Liverpool to win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Liverpool Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.5

Chelsea v Crystal Palace

Sunday April 2, 1:00am AEDT

Chelsea found a way to get over the line at Stoke to make it 19 wins from their last 22, during which time they’ve lost only once. Crystal Palace are in impressive form themselves as their 1-0 win against Watford was their third victory without conceding on the bounce and so they’ve moved up from 19th to 16th.

Chelsea have won their last 10 at Stamford Bridge but they’ve been a little more vulnerable defensively recently. While they kept five clean sheets in the first six of these, they’ve shut out their opponents in only one of their last four at home. Indeed, they’re without a clean sheet in six at home and away, though they’ve conceded just one goal from their last five visits from bottom-half teams and so Conte will be hoping his side can extend that impressive record here.

Palace have lost and failed to score in three of their last five away, and indeed they’ve lost and failed to score in both their trips to top-six sides to date as they were beaten 1-0 at Spurs and 2-0 at Arsenal . They lost without scoring at four of the top five last season and we expect the same to happen here. We’re backing Chelsea to win to nil.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 1.95

Manchester United v West Brom

Sunday April 2, 1:00am AEDT

Man Utd made it three wins in four unbeaten games as they won 3-1 at Boro prior to the international break to move up to fifth, with games in hand on all the sides above them. West Brom, meanwhile, bounced back from disappointing defeats against Palace and Everton by beating Arsenal 3-1 at home to once again strengthen their hold on eighth.

United have drawn three of their last four at Old Trafford, including against the likes of Bournemouth and Hull. Indeed, West Ham, Burnley and Stoke have all managed to pick up a point at Old Trafford this term as the Red Devils have scored more than once in just three of their last 11 on their own turf and so they’re perhaps a little on the short side at 1.3, particularly with Herrera and Ibrahimovic once again suspended.

However, the Baggies have lost all five trips to sides above them this season whilst scoring only one goal. It was a similar story last term as they lost at both Manchester clubs and Arsenal whilst scoring only once, though they didn’t concede more than twice in any of these. Indeed, since four of their last eight defeats at top-six sides were by 1-0 or 2-0 scorelines, whilst Utd have been far from prolific at home and are without Ibrahimovic, we’re backing a home win and Under 2.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Man Utd Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 3.4

Leicester v Stoke

Sunday April 2, 1:00am AEDT

Leicester continued their post-Ranieri resurgence as they made it three wins out of three since the Italian’s departure with their 3-2 win at West Ham, whilst they also progressed to the quarter-finals of the Champions League with their win over Sevilla. Stoke, meanwhile, were edged out 2-1 at home to champions-elect Chelsea but remain in ninth, the same place they’ve finished in the last three seasons.

Leicester have beaten both Hull and Liverpool 3-1 in their last two home games and even with their struggles earlier on in the season, it’s only sides currently above Stoke in the table that have beaten them at the King Power. When hosting teams outside the top-eight they’re W15-D4-L0 since the start of last season, including a 3-0 win against Stoke in this fixture last term, and given their excellent form under Shakespeare, we wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar here.

Stoke have lost five of their last seven on the road as they’ve had a tough run of fixtures, with six of these seven games at sides above them in the table. Leicester are certainly now playing like a top-eight team again and so we expect the Potters’ struggles on the road to continue. Mark Hughes’s men have failed to score in their last three away, but since Leicester have kept only one clean sheet in their last 10 at the King Power, we’re wary of backing the win to nil. Instead, the Foxes look a big enough price at 2.06 simply to pick up the three points.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Leicester at 2.06

Watford v Sunderland

Sunday April 2, 1:00am AEDT

Watford slumped to their third defeat in four winless games as they were beaten 1-0 at Palace and so drop down to 14th. They’re still 11 points clear of bottom of the league Sunderland, who picked up their first point in four at home to Burnley last time out, though the goals have dried up as they’ve now failed to score in six of their last seven.

Watford have won only one of their last six at home as they’ve been held to draws by bottom-five sides Boro and Palace in that time. With relegation not really a threat, there is a chance that the Hornets’ intensity has dropped off a touch. They’ve been vulnerable at the back all season, keeping only two clean sheets in their 14 games at Vicarage Road and so they look on the short side here at 1.85.

Sunderland have lost nine of their last 11 away but they managed a 4-0 win at Palace in their penultimate road game, whilst they’re W5-D3-L6 when travelling to bottom-half sides since the start of last season. We’ve seen the Black Cats mount remarkable comebacks from being on the brink of relegation in the past and they could give themselves a chance of doing the same here. We’re backing Moyes’ men to pick up at least a point.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Watford at 1.86

Burnley v Tottentham

Sunday April 2, 1:00am AEDT

After four straight away games during which time they picked up only two points, Burnley return to Turf Moor, where they’ve impressed all season. They’ve dropped down to 13th after their run of away fixtures, but they’re just a point from the top half. Tottenham, meanwhile, have won their last three, all of which were at home, and so go on the road for the first time since Harry Kane picked up his injury.

Burnley have won five of six unbeaten home games, the latest of which was a draw with Chelsea and they’ve in fact lost only two of their last 13 at Turf Moor as they were edged out in narrow defeats against both Arsenal and City. They’ve scored in all but one of their last 13 home games, whilst they’ve also managed clean sheets in three of their last five on their own turf.

Spurs have won only two of their last 10 on the road and so they look far too short at 1.67, particularly with Kane’s absence. They’ve lost only three times away, each at top-six sides, but they’ve been held to draws at the likes of Sunderland and Bournemouth. We think Burnley can also get a result here and given they haven’t lost by more than one at home all season, they look an excellent bet +1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Burnley +1 Asian Handicap at 1.85

Hull v West Ham

Sunday April 2, 1:00am AEDT

Hull failed to follow up their 2-1 win against Swansea as they were thumped 4-0 at Goodison Park last time out and so they remain in 18th, three points behind the Swans. West Ham slumped to their third defeat on the bounce as they were beaten 3-2 at home to Leicester and so they’ve dropped down to 12th.

Hull have been in impressive form at home, losing only one of their last nine at the KCOM Stadium and winning three of their last four there. Indeed, if we exclude top-nine sides then Hull are W4-D2-L0 at home this term and so they’re certainly deserved favourites against a somewhat out of sorts West Ham side. However, the Tigers remain vulnerable defensively as they’ve kept only one home clean sheet all season, with both teams scoring in seven of their last nine at home and six of these seeing more than two goals.

The Hammers have conceded at least twice in four of their last five, whilst six of their last eight have featured more than three goals. They’ve lost only two of their last eight on the road but they’ve kept only one away clean sheet all season, with both teams scoring in 11 of their 14 away games and eight having more than three goals, including five of their last seven. In a game where the match odds look about right, the value certainly lies in the goals markets and we’ll be backing Over 2.5.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.00

Southampton v  Bournemouth

Sunday April 2, 3:30am AEDT

Southampton suffered a double blow at Spurs prior to the international break as they were beaten 2-1 and also lost new star striker Gabbiadini to injury. Bournemouth, meanwhile, recorded back-to-back victories as they beat both West Ham and Swansea at home and so they’ve moved up to 11th, trailing their south-coast hosts on goal difference alone, though Saints do have two games in hand.

Having lost only one of their first eight at home, Southampton have now lost three of their last four at St Mary’s, conceding nine goals in the process. Four of their five home victories this term have come over side’s currently below Bournemouth in the table and so we’re looking to take Puel’s men on at 1.66, particularly without Gabbiadini.

Bournemouth have now picked up seven points from their last three, including a draw at Old Trafford in their last away game. They’ve scored in all but one of their last nine on the road, and that was at Chelsea and without Gabbiadini, Southampton may struggle to outgun them. Indeed, the Saints have scored more than once in only two of their home games all season and so we’re laying them at 1.67.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Southampton at 1.67

Swansea v Middlesbrough

Sunday April 2, 11:30am AEDT

Swansea won four of their first seven games under Paul Clement, but they’ve lost their last two, at Hull and Bournemouth, and so they’ve dropped down to 17th. They’re only three points clear of Hull, but remain five ahead of Middlesbrough as the sacking of Aitor Karanka had little effect on their performance against Man Utd, as they lost for seventh time in 11 winless games.

After a heavy defeat against Arsenal in their opening home game under Paul Clement, the Swans have since won their last three at the Liberty Stadium, beating Southampton, Leicester and Burnley. They remain vulnerable defensively, however, as they’ve kept only one clean sheet in their last 14 overall but with Llorente and Sigurdsson in excellent form, they’ve scored in all but two of their nine games under Clement, with seven of these seeing more than two goals and four with more than three.

Boro looked much more open against Man Utd without Karanka in charge as they managed to score their first goal in five games. They seem to have realised that they need wins rather than draws to keep themselves in the division and since they’ve now kept only one clean sheet in their last seven even with their defensive approach, we could see goals in this one. We’re backing Over 2.5.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.26

Arsenal v Manchester City

Monday April 3, 2:00am AEDT

Arsenal are in dire straits and Arsene Wenger hasn’t got a Sutton Utd or Lincoln to face to ease some of the pressure he’s under this time as his side instead host Man City, who they’ll also face in the FA Cup in three weeks. The Citizens have been held to draws in their last two, at home to Stoke and Liverpool, but they’re now unbeaten in seven and seven points clear of the Gunners, though they have played a game more.

While the Gunners have lost five of their last seven away, they’ve won six of seven at home and are W4-D2-L1 when hosting top-five sides since the start of last season, with their sole defeat in that time coming against Liverpool on the opening day of the season. As a result, there looks to be something of an overreaction to their poor away form when it comes to the prices here. The last time the Gunners were 3.0 or bigger at home was interestingly in this very fixture almost three years ago to the day. That game ended 1-1, with the Gunners going out to Bayern in the Champions League a couple of weeks before whilst being thumped 6-0 at Chelsea and held to a 2-2 draw at home to Swansea in their two games prior to that 1-1 draw, with Wenger again under severe pressure at the time.

City have won their last three away but each of these victories have come over sides currently in the bottom half and after their victory at Old Trafford early on in the season they’ve since lost and failed to score in all three of their trips to top-seven sides. Indeed, the Citizens have struggled somewhat against their competitors for European spots all season as they’re just W2-D3-L4 against top-seven teams and as a result we’re certainly going to take them on at 2.36.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Arsenal +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.92


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