West Brom v Arsenal

Saturday March 18, 11:30pm AEDT

Both these sides aren’t in the best of form as West Brom have lost their last two by an aggregate of 5-0, whilst Arsenalhave lost three of their last four to drop down from second to fifth. With the two sides directly above them playing each other this weekend, the Gunners will want to get the three points on the board here in their battle for a top-four spot.

West Brom have won seven of their last nine at the Hawthorns, but they’ve struggled against the top teams all season, going W0-D1-L8 against the sides above them in the table, scoring only three goals in these and none in the last six. They’ve been beaten 4-0 by Man City and 2-0 by Utd at home, whilst they also lost their last game at home 2-0 against Palace.

The Gunners have had similar struggles against the top teams, picking up just one point from five trips to fellow top-seven sides so far, but they’re W6-D2-L0 when travelling to the rest of the division. Five of these six victories were by more than one goal and they’ve scored 16 goals in the last four of these, whilst they also led at the break in five of these six wins. We’re backing Arsenal/Arsenal HT/FT and we’re also siding with the Gunners -1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Arsenal/Arsenal HT/FT at 2.7

BACK – Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap at 2.21

Crystal Palace v Watford

Sunday March 19, 2:00am AEDT

Crystal Palace picked up their third win in five games as they won 2-0 at West Brom and so they’ve moved out of the relegation zone. Watford, meanwhile, were beaten in a 4-3 thriller at home to Southampton and so they’ve dropped down to 13th, six points clear of their hosts.

Palace ended a run of five straight home defeats with their victory against Boro in their last game at Selhurst Park, though Watford should provide them with a tougher test. Palace have in fact lost eight of their last 10 at home and while they were impressive at West Brom, we’re not quite sure they should be as short as 1.95 here.

Watford have lost only two of their last seven, and one of those was at Old Trafford in their last away match. Prior to that on their travels they’d managed a point at Bournemouth and won at the Emirates, whilst they’re W6-D3-L2 when travelling to bottom-seven sides since the start of last season. With that in mind, we’ll be laying Palace at 1.97, whilst we wouldn’t put anyone off backing the Hornets 0 Asian Handicap at 3.38.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Crystal Palace at 1.97

Sunderland v Burnley

Sunday March 19, 2:00am AEDT

Sunderland suffered their third defeat on the bounce as they were beaten 2-0 at home to Man City, the fifth time they’ve failed to score in six. As a result, they remain bottom, now six points from safety. They’re 12 points off Burnley in 12thdespite the Clarets’ 2-1 defeat at Liverpool last time out in a game in which Sean Dyche’s men in fact took the lead.

Sunderland have now failed to score in their last three at home, but these have been in tricky fixtures against Spurs, Southampton and City. The Black Cats have in fact won their last three at home to bottom-half sides and so they look a fair price here at 2.6. A couple of important players have returned to fitness as both Kirchhoff and Djilobodji are back in contention  and the Black Cats have a better record with both of them in the side since the start of last season.

Burnley have picked up only two points from their 14 away games to date and while they have improved on their travels as they haven’t lost any of their last eight on the road by more than one goal, they seem to have something of a mental block when it comes to getting over the line away from Turf Moor. They’ve failed to hold on to leads in their last two on the road at Swansea and Liverpool and as a result we’re siding with Sunderland.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap at 1.85

Everton v Hull

Sunday March 19, 2:00am AEDT

Everton thumped West Brom 3-0 at Goodison Park last time out to maintain their stranglehold on seventh place. Hull, meanwhile, picked up a vital win as they beat Swansea 2-1 at home to move up to 18th, just a point from safety, though they have played a game more than Crystal Palace as well as the two sides below them.

Everton are in excellent form at home having won their last five on their own turf whilst keeping four clean sheets and scoring 18 goals in the process. They’re W7-D2-L0 when hosting bottom-five sides since the start of last season, with six of these seven victories by more than one goal, whilst they also led at the break in six of these wins.

Hull have lost 11 of 12 winless road games whilst scoring only four goals and as such they look to have it all to do here. Their last four away defeats have all been by more than one goal, but they’ve only trailed at half-time in four of their last 10 on their travels and so we prefer to side with the hosts -1 on the Asian Handicap at 1.89, rather than the W/W double 2.4.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Everton -1 Asian Handicap at 1.89

Stoke v Chelsea

Sunday March 19, 2:00am AEDT

Stoke battled for a goalless draw at the Etihad last week and so they remain in ninth, the same place they’ve finished in the last three seasons. Chelsea continued their march towards the Premier League title as they won 2-1 at West Ham, though Antonio Conte will no doubt be disappointed with the late goal his side conceded as they’re now without a clean sheet in five.

After defeats in their opening two home games of the season, Stoke have since lost only once on their own turf. However, the only top-six side they’ve hosted during that run was Man Utd, whom they drew with, whilst the defeats early on in the season were 4-1 and 4-0 losses against City and Spurs respectively. Indeed, the Potters have picked up only one point from seven fixtures with top-five sides so far this season, trailing at the break in five of these games, and as a result we‘re looking to side with the league leaders.

Chelsea have won eight of their last 11 on their travels, with two of the instances of them failing to win at Spurs and Liverpool. As such, we think they look a fair price here at 1.63 but since they’ve been ahead at the break in seven of their last 10 away, whilst Stoke have trailed at the half in eight of their 10 defeats this term, we’re backing Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT at 2.6.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT at 2.6

West Ham v Leicester

Sunday March 19, 2:00am AEDT

West Ham were undone by a late Joshua King goal at Bournemouth as they suffered a 3-2 defeat, stretching their win-less run to four games and seeing them drop down to 11thLeicester, on the other hand, have excelled since Ranieri’s departure, recording 3-1 home wins over both Liverpool and Hull to move up to 15th and allay relegation fears, whilst they also managed to knock Sevilla out of the Champions League in midweek.

The Hammers’ games have tended to be full of goals in recent times, with both teams scoring in six of the last seven and five of these seeing more than three strikes. They’ve won only five times at the London Stadium all season and the form of these victories can certainly be questioned. The first was a narrow 1-0 victory over Bournemouth, the second came over bottom of the league Sunderland, the next over Burnley, who have been poor travelers all season, the fourth over Hull before Marco Silva took over and the last against Palace in the midst of a four game losing streak for the Eagles. As such, we’re looking to take the hosts on at 2.32.

Leicester have looked much more like the title winning side of last season in their last couple of games and whilst they’re yet to win on the road this term, we expect those results to improve markedly under Craig Shakespeare. We’re siding with the champions +0.25 on the Asian Handicap at 1.96.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Leicester +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.96

Bournemouth v Swansea

Sunday March 19, 4:30am AEDT

Bournemouth picked up their first win in nine as they won 3-2 at home to West Ham to move six points clear of the relegation zone. Indeed, they’re now three points clear of their visitors after Swansea were beaten 2-1 at Hull.

The win over West Ham was Bournemouth’s first in their last six the Vitality Stadium but they continue to struggle defensively as they’ve conceded at least twice in each of these games. It took an inspired performance from Joshua King and a late goal to get them over the line against the Hammers and as such a price of 2.3 looks to overstate their chances here.

Swansea have won half of their eight games under Paul Clement, with three of their defeats coming against Chelsea, City and Arsenal. They’ve netted in each of their last five on the road, despite the fact that three of these were against sides currently in the top-four. They’ve managed wins at Palace and Liverpool in that time and we expect them to have plenty of joy against this leaky Bournemouth defence. We’re siding with the Swans +0.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Swansea +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.99

Middlesbrough v Manchester United

Sunday March 19, 11:30pm AEDT

Middlesbrough’s winless streak has been stretched to 10 games after they were beaten 2-0 at Stoke and they continue to struggle for goals as they’ve managed only three during that poor run. They’ve dropped down to 19th, the same number of goals they’ve managed in their 27 games this season. Manchester United, meanwhile, drew for the fourth time in their last six as they couldn’t get past 10-man Bournemouth and so remain in sixth.

For all their struggles, Boro have proven tough to beat at home, losing only three of their last nine at the Riverside. They’ve hosted six top-half sides so far, going W0-D3-L3 across these, with Liverpool the only side to beat them by more than one goal, though Boro managed only three goals themselves, so we expect this to be cagey.

Utd have won four of five unbeaten road games, conceding just two goals in these, and they’ve been very reliable when travelling to the lesser sides, winning all five of their trips to bottom-seven sides to date. They conceded only three goals in these and we expect them to keep another clean sheet here. However, since Boro are generally tough to break down and Zlatan Ibrahimovic remains suspended for the Red Devils, we’re backing the Utd Win and Under 2.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Man Utd Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 3.2

Tottenham v Southampton

Monday March 20, 1:15am AEDT

Spurs eased past Millwall in the FA Cup on the weekend but their victory came at a cost as Harry Kane was forced off with an ankle injury and may miss the remainder of the season. They’re currently second but whether they can hold on to their top four position without the division’s top scorer remains to be seen. Southampton have a new goalscorer of their own with Gabbiadini netting six goals in his four appearances for the club, including a brace against Man Utd in the League Cup final, firing them to victories in their last two at Sunderland and Watford to move them up to 10th.

Spurs have won their last nine at White Hart Lane, where they’re unbeaten this season, scoring 27 goals during that winning run whilst keeping six clean sheets. However, Southampton are one of only three sides to win at the Lane since the start of last season and with no Kane for the hosts, this looks an excellent opportunity to take Pochettino’s men on.

The Saints have netted eight in their last two and have won half of their last six on the road. They managed a draw at Man City in their only trip to a top-four side to date and we think they can at least avoid defeat here. They showed no signs of their disappointing defeat against Man Utd in the League Cup final affecting them with their win at Watford, and invigorated by Gabbiadini, we’re siding with them here.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Tottenham at 1.76

Manchester City v Liverpool

Monday March 20, 3:30am AEDT

Man City’s four game winning streak was ended by a frustrating scoreless draw at home to Stoke last week and so they now lead Liverpool by only a single point, though they do still have a game in hand. Liverpool came from behind to beat Burnley, their third win in their last four, though they continue to be vulnerable defensively as they’ve kept only one clean sheet in their last nine.

The draw against Stoke was City’s second stalemate in their last three at the Etihad, while they’ve won only four of their last 10 on their own turf. They came from behind to beat Arsenal at home, but they could only manage a point when hosting Spurs and were defeat by Chelsea, and so they look too short at 2.02. City have undoubtedly improved in recent weeks, but they’ve had a soft run of fixtures in the Premier League, playing West Ham, Swansea, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Stoke in their last five and so we’re looking to take them on.

Liverpool have lost their last two road games, at Hull and Leicester, but they’ve been excellent when travelling to the top teams under Jurgen Klopp, winning three of five unbeaten trips to top-seven sides so far. Indeed, the German is W8-D6-L0 in fixtures against the current top-five since he took charge of the club, including four wins in the six road games. As a result, we’re backing Liverpool +0.25 Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Liverpool +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.29

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