Manchester United v Bournemouth

Saturday March 4, 11:30pm AEDT

After their EFL Cup triumph over Southampton, their sixth win on the bounce in all competitions, Man Utd renew their bid to secure a top-four spot in the Premier League, something they’re only two points away from at the moment. Bournemouth’s defeat at West Brom was their fourth on the bounce and they’re in danger of being dragged into a relegation battle.

Man Utd are unbeaten in 11 at Old Trafford, winning four of their last six there. They’re W5-D2-L0 at home to bottom-half sides this term, though they only time they’ve scored more than twice in their last 10 at Old Trafford was against bottom of the league Sunderland, so they haven’t exactly been blowing teams away.

However, Bournemouth have conceded more than twice in five of their last seven on the road, losing six of these games. They’ve shipped four at Man City, three at both Arsenal and Chelsea, whilst they were hit for six at Everton. Indeed, since six of their last eight away defeats were by more than one goal, we’re siding with this now more expansive Utd side -1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Man Utd -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.81

West Brom v Crystal Palace

Sunday March 5, 2:00am AEDT

West Brom continue to impress as their 2-1 win over Bournemouth was their third in five unbeaten games and so they remain in eighth, now seven points clear of West Ham and just four off Everton in seventh. Crystal Palace picked up a much-needed win as they beat fellow-strugglers Boro at home to move up to 17th, though they’re far from out of trouble.

West Brom have won seven of their last eight at home and have now triumphed in eight of nine unbeaten home games against sides below them in the table this term. They’ve led at the break in six of their eight home wins, whilst they’ve kept a clean sheet in two of their last three there and so they’ll be confident of another three points.

Palace have lost six of their last nine on the road, failing to score in three of the last four of these. Indeed, they’ve managed only one goal from their five trips to top-half sides so far, making the West Brom win to nil of interest at 3.4, but the Baggies are a big enough price for us at 2.2 simply to secure the win.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Brom at 2.2

Swansea v Burnley

Sunday March 5, 2:00am AEDT

Swansea managed to go into the break all-square at Stamford Bridge but went on to lose 3-1, which coupled with other results from the weekend leaves them in 16th, just two points clear of the relegation zone. Burnley, meanwhile, managed a point at Hull and so they go up to 11th, seven points ahead of their hosts.

Swansea have lost against Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea since Paul Clement took over, but they’ve won their other three fixtures, against Liverpool, Southampton and Leicester. However, they’ve won just four home games all season, all against sides currently below Burnley in the table, and as a result the Swans look a little short to us at 2.0, despite the improvement under Clement.

Burnley picked up only their second away point of the season at Hull but that was only their second visit to a bottom-eight side this term. As a result, we expect their away results to improve between now and the end of the season, particularly as there has been a clear improvement in their road form as they were only beaten by a single goal at Spurs, City and Arsenal prior to their trip to Hull. We’ll be laying Swansea at 2.02.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Swansea at 2.02

Watford v Southampton

Sunday March 5, 2:00am AEDT

Watford had to settle for a point at home to West Ham as they were unable to hold onto their early lead but they remain in good shape in 12th, having lost only one of their last six matches. Southampton suffered heartbreak in the EFL Cup final as they were undone by a late winner, but they won 4-0 at Sunderland last time out in the league and so will look to build on that result.

After defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal in their opening two home games of the season, Watford have since lost only twice at Vicarage Road, and one of those was against Spurs. Indeed, if we exclude top-five opponents, the Hornets areW5-D4-L1 this term, including wins against Man Utd and Everton. However, they’ve kept only two home clean sheets and those were against Boro and Hull, the two lowest scorers in the division.

The Saints have won only three away games this term and so they immediately look too short to us at 2.22. Their away wins have come at West Ham, who were down in 18th at the time, at a Bournemouth side on the slide and in their last away game at bottom of the league Sunderland. They may well take a while to recover from the disappointment of their Wembley defeat and so we’re backing Watford +0.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Watford +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.07

Leicester v Hull

Sunday March 5, 2:00am AEDT

Leicester picked up their first Premier League win and indeed scored their first goals of 2017 as they beat Liverpool 3-1 at the King Power to move out of the relegation zone. Hull, meanwhile, were held to a draw at home to Burnley and so they drop down to 19th, though they’re only a point from safety.

Leicester looked like a completely different team against Liverpool and will expect to build on that performance and put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone in the next few weeks. For all their struggles this term, Leicester are W4-D2-L0 at home against sides outside the top-eight, to go with victories over City and Liverpool. They’ve tended to start quickly as they’ve led at the break in all six of their home victories, now leading at the break in 12 of their last 19 at home.

Marco Silva has had a tough run of away fixtures since he took over as he’s gone to Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal so far. He managed a goalless draw at Old Trafford and was only beaten 2-0 at both Chelsea and Arsenal, typical of his tenure so far as Hull’s last five have all seen fewer than three goals as he now has them pretty well-organised. Nonetheless, they’ve picked up only one point from their last 11 on the road, with 6 L/L doubles in that time, and given Leicester’s strong first-half record at home, we’re backing Leicester/Leicester HT/FT.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Leicester/Leicester HT/FT at 3.1

Stoke v Middlesbrough

Sunday March 5, 2:00am AEDT

Stoke were thumped 4-0 last time out at Spurs but this was only their second defeat in seven, during which time they’ve won three and achieved credible draws with Man Utd and Everton. They’re unbeaten at home in seven and will expect to get back to winning ways here, especially as their opponents Boro were beaten 1-0 at Palace and so they’re down to 17thand now win-less in nine.

While Stoke have lost only one of their last 11 at home, they have drawn four of their last six there. The Potters are however pretty reliable when hosting the lesser sides as they’re W7-D1-L0 against bottom-five opposition since the start of last season, though they were level at the break in six of these games before eventually breaking their visitors down.

Boro have picked up only one point from their last six on the road, scoring only once in that time, but they’ve trailed at the break in only three of their 13 away games this term. Indeed, they’ve been level at the break in six of their last seven road trips and in four of their last five away defeats and so we’re backing Draw/Stoke Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Draw/Stoke HT/FT at 5.0

Liverpool v Arsenal

Sunday March 5, 4:30am AEDT

Liverpool ran into a resurgent Leicester at the King Power and were well-beaten 3-1, their third defeat in their last five games, all of which have come against bottom-six sides. They remain in fifth, a point behind their visitors Arsenal, who got back to winning ways against Hull after defeats to Watford and Chelsea.

Liverpool were impressive in victory over Spurs in their last game at Anfield, their eighth win in 12 home games this term as they’ve lost only once on their own turf. The Reds are W4-D5-L1 at home to top-six sides since Klopp took over in games that have been surprisingly tight as six of there were level at the break and eight had fewer than three goals, though one of the exceptions was in this fixture last term, a 3-3 thriller.

Indeed, five of the last six top-flight encounters between these two sides have seen more than three goals, with the last three at Anfield seeing 16 in total. The Gunners have conceded more than once in four of their last five on the road, losing three of these, whilst both teams have scored in all four of their visits to top-seven sides this term.

They lost three of these, and indeed have lost half of their trips to top-six sides since the start of last season, with their only win in that time coming at Leicester. Six of these saw more than three goals and that together with recent history in this fixture means that we’re backing Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1, with Over 2.5 an excellent price at 1.84.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1

Tottenham v Everton

Monday March 6, 12:30am AEDT

Spurs thumped Stoke 4-0 at White Hart Lane to move back up to second, though they remain 10 points behind Chelsea. Everton made it five wins from seven unbeaten games as they beat Sunderland 2-0 at home to move within four points of Man Utd, though the Red Devils do have a game in hand.

Spurs have been excellent at home this term, where they remain unbeaten, winning their last eight and conceding only one goal in their last seven. They’ve won the last five times a top-half side has visited, leading at the break in four of these victories and also keeping four clean sheets.

Everton are unbeaten in five on the road, but four of those were at sides currently in the bottom-six and they could only draw at Boro and Hull. They’ve travelled to only two sides above them so far, managing a point at the Etihad, but they were thumped 5-0 at Chelsea. Indeed, they’ve lost nine of 12 winless trips to top-five sides since 2014/15, failing to score in seven of these and also trailing at the break in seven. The Toffees have in fact been behind at the break in seven of their last eight away defeats and so we’re backing Spurs/Spurs HT/FT.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Spurs/Spurs HT/FT at 2.66

Sunderland v Manchester City

Monday March 6, 3:00am AEDT

Sunderland remain bottom after they were beaten 2-0 at Goodison Park, though they’re just three points from safety so there’s certainly still hope for the Black Cats. City have won their last three to spark some talk of potentially giving Chelsea something to think about, but they’d have to be virtually perfect between now and the end of the season if they’re to reel the Blues in.

Sunderland have been in decent form at home, losing only three of their last eight at the Stadium of Light, managing draws against both Liverpool and Spurs in that time. Indeed, they were only beaten 1-0 by Chelsea when they visited during that eight game stretch and so we expect City to have to work hard if they’re to make it four wins on the bounce.

City have won nine of their 13 away games this term but they’ve only led at the break in two of their last seven on their travels, while they’ve been level at the break before going on to win in two of their four trips to bottom-six sides so far. Sunderland proved something of a bogey side for City not long ago as they lost four straight visits to the Stadium of Light between 2010/11 and 2013/14, but the Citizens have won all five meetings since 2014/15. We expect them to pick up the three points again here, but since the Black Cats have drawn the first half in seven of their 10 home games against top-six opposition since 2015/16, we’re backing Draw/Man City HT/FT.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Draw/Man City HT/FT at 4.8

West Ham v Chelsea

Tuesday March 7, 7:00am AEDT

West Ham have had to come from behind to rescue a point in their last two games against West Brom and Watford, meaning they’ve lost only one of their last six. Chelsea, meanwhile, beat Swansea 3-1 at home to maintain their comfortable lead at the top of proceedings.

The Hammers have lost only three of their last 10 at home, but each of those defeats have come against top-six sides as they were beaten 5-1 by Arsenal, 2-0 by Man Utd and 4-0 by City. That’s in contrast to last season at Upton Park where they beat Utd, Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea, while they drew against City and Arsenal, as they’ve struggled to make the London Stadium a similarly tough place for the top sides to visit.

One concern that Conte might have is that his side are without a clean sheet in four, while they’ve won just one of their last four on the road. However, two of those were at Liverpool and Spurs, while the other was at Burnley, which has proven a tough place to go this term. They’d won six on the bounce away prior to that whilst conceding only once goal and we except them to get back to winning ways here. We’re siding with the leaders -1 on the Asian Handicap, whilst the win to nil is also of interest at 2.75.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chelsea -1 Asian Handicap at 2.03

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